Running a little behind, only posting the first game right now, but there are 2 more plays I will post in a little bit and one of them is VERY VERY STRONG. For now...
CHAR/CLE UNDER 189. - LEAN
THE REFS...
DAN CRAWFORD - 6 of last 8 UNDER on CHAR and 3 of last 4 UNDER on CLE
KEVIN CUTLER - 2 of last 3 CHAR UNDER (1 of those unders was an OT game) and last 3 CLE games UNDER
GARY ZIELINSKI - 7 of last 10 UNDER for CHAR (1 over was OT) and last 6 UNDER for CLE
Combined trend is 27-7 (79%). THis is a LEAN
So far all ref plays are 10-3-1 (LEANS and STRONG plays). Had a bad night last night going 0-1-1, should be much better tonight.
BEST OF LUCK, will post the other 2 plays in a bit.
2-0 yesterday and now 10-2 (5-1 on STRONG plays and 5-1 on LEANS) 83.3%. Totals have gone 8-1 and Sides 2-1. 1 STRONG side and 1 LEAN total tonight.
MIL +5 STRONG PLAY
THE REFS...
MIKE CALLAHAN - DEN has NOT covered 5 of last 7 with him officiating.
COURTNEY KIRKLAND - DEN has NOT covered 7 of the last 10 with him on the court. SMALL CAUTION: MIL has only covered 1 of the last 5 with him, but 2 of those losses were against IND which he has an incredibly strong preference towards.
OLANDIS POOLE - DEN has NOT covered the last 6 with him officiating and the bucks HAVE covered the last 7.
Combined trend is 26-9 (including the 1-4 against the bucks trend by KIRKLAND). Normally, the trend has to be upwards of 80% for me to make it a strong play, but when you adjust out the 2 KIRKLAND loves the pacers plays it is right at 80% and DEN is on a back to back to back (with the first two pretty hard fought ATS wins against the lakers). This system won on DEN yesterday and hopefully wind against them tonight.
OKC/DAL OVER 196 - LEAN
THE REFS...
BRENT BARNAKY - OVER last 4 for OKC games.
JAMES CAPERS - OVER 8 of last 10 for OKC (1 of those Unders by 1 pt) and OVER the last 3 for DAL
DERRICK COLLINS - OVER last 4 for DAL.
Combined trend is 19-2, just a little bit too small of a sample to make a STRONG play rather than a LEAN. OKC and DAL are both 3 overs and 2 unders on the year. In my opinion this total should be around 200-201, but it opened at 199 and has dropped. THis type of info covered a DAL/OKC over (with 3 completely different refs) last week.
BEST OF LUCK... Use them however you choose.
FOR THE MOST PART, my gut tells me that 1st quarters are by far the highest scoring quarter on avg this year with the 3rd quarter being the lowest scoring (slightly lower than the also low 4th quarters). Im going to do some considerable research on this and will post what i find... Before i do, i just thought it would be interesting to get some opinions and see what you guys FEEL is the highest and lowest scoring quarters? I believe im going to find a surprising disparity in scores by quarter, but we will see. I definitely feel that the 2nd halves are coming up less than the 1st halves by a few points. Agree? DIsagree? This could be some useful information for all of us since as a general rule, Vegas sets first half lines at exactly 1/2 (+ maybe 1/2-1 pt) of the full game total. Thoughts and comments appreciated.
Using the best of the best ref trends over the past several days has gone 8-2 (4-1 on strong plays and 4-1 on leans). There are 2 plays that stick out tonight....
MINN/DAL UNDER 202
Here are the refs...
TONY BROTHERS - Under on 3 of last 4 DAL games with the 1 over being an OT game. Also under on the last 3 MINN games.
KEVIN CUTLER - Under on the last 4 MINN games. These 4 have all gone WAY under.... by 24, 39, 30 and 14pts.
DAVID GUTHRIE - Under on 5 of the last 6 MINN games.
Trend is 15-2 combined (with one of those overs in OT). WIsh it was a slightly larger sample. But some other factors have me making this a STRONG PLAY.
DEN -5
Here are the refs...
BILL KENNEDY - LAKERS have NOT covered 5 of the last 6 and DEN HAS covered 5 of the last 6.
TOMMY NUNEZ JR - Lakers have NOT covered the last 4 and 8 of the last 10. Denver HAS covered the last 3 and 8 of the last 9.
LEON WOOD - LAKERS have NOT covered 4 of last 6 and Denver HAS covered 4 of last 5.
Trend is a combined 34-8 (81%) with a large sample size. Statistically, this should be a strong play, but I am still unconvinced entirely of the quality in DEN and 5 is a little more than i would like to give, so I am making it a LEAN.
Best of luck, use them however you like.
I think I am going to start keeping a new stat... anybody that says any of the above seems to be fighting a losing battle with karma. The funny thing is - the guy that is going to lick the toilet for IND losing... im not sure if i will respect him more if he does it or doesnt do it (kind hard to gain respect for a guy that is licking a toilet). Im betting he doesnt - lol.