First post, weeeeee. I've been using posts here to refine/improve my picks for a few years. This is the first time I've thought of an issue that's important enough to open an account and post.
Let me say that I'm not sure exactly where I'm going with this, and the intent is to improve our collective capping. Please don't take any of this as a personal affront.
A brief background: I've been capping for about 5 years. I've worked my ass off to improve my abilities, and this is the second year that I've been very well at it. My first 3 years were a mix of 2 winners and 1 loser... though I made some money, the last two years have turned this into a very profitable hobby for me, to the point where (if sustainable), I am crossing my fingers and hoping this will continue to be my primary source of income. Anyway, that's kinda neither here nor there.
In capping, I've noticed a trend towards "sharp squares." These are people who are generally slight losers to moderate winners, but have some dogmatic convictions that are so fucking absurd that they're laughable. They rant and rave about the 'law of averages,' 'reversion to the mean,' and other factors which are damn near irrelevant. While I realize that sports have a human element and we're not talking about objective outcomes like roulette or something, they overemphasize the wrong things. There are three great examples I can think of this, and they are:
1) People who blindly and dogmatically bet 'value.' Yes, this is a great way to make money, if done correctly. Gamehunter shades towards dogs, and he is one of the best cappers here (not just in terms of results, but in terms of thought process/delineation). It's the people who stubbornly bet the Nationals because of the 'great value.' PLEASE note that this is the least bothersome of the 3.
2) I have a local friend who, when I suggested the Rockies and Giants, responded that "They're both playing .666 ball... you think they can keep that up? Fade them!" It is frustrating as shit that somebody like him, who I believe is a slight long term winner, hinders themselves with stupid thinking like this. If this guy line shopped and refined a few elements of his capping, I believe he could be a consistent (big) winner.
3) The man, the myth, the legend. The guy who made me write this post. KING SCORPIO. Do I believe him when he says he's a winner? Yes. Do I think he has some fantastic ideas about capping? ABSOLUTELY. However, some things kill me. Like him, I shade towards dogs (and unders). If you gave me $100 to bet on a game with zero information about who was playing or pitching, I'd bet the dog and/or the under. I just can't fucking stand it when he busts out things like "The A.L. has won 13 times in a row. Vegas wants you on the N.L.!" (Note: I bet $1,000 on the N.L. at +105 and believed/believe it was the right pick) or "Moehler is the worst pitcher ever! Vegas wants you on the opposition. Houston to the bank!"
I know I'm being exaggerative/harsh/paraphrasing, but I'm ok with that. This stuff wouldn't bother me if it came from some of the noobs here, but coming from someone who I believe to be a small to decent sized winner, it drives me fucking nuts.
Please discuss, and keep the flaming of each other, myself, and the community in general to a minimum. This issue is too important.