I have been both good and lucky so far in the playoffs posting a perfect 9-0 record (+20.0). They have all been posted.

2* Packers/Bears Under (44) - Yes, Rodgers has been hot in the playoffs and the Bears are on an "over" streak (6-1 L7), but I like the under here. These teams rank #2 and #4 in scoring defense. The last 6 meetings have gone under including 20-17 and 10-3 this year. 5 of the last 6 meetings in Chicago have gone under with all 6 totaling 42 or less. The under is 5-0 in GB's L5 division road games, 6-1 in their L7 as road fav of 4<, and 4-1 in  the Bears' L5 home vs. division. In the season finale at GB, a meaningless game for Chicago (they were locked in at #2 seed), the Bears threw the ball 41 times with just 20 rushing plays. I believe that was just the setup and they will run the ball a lot more in this game, pounding Forte and Taylor to control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field. The Packers are after all #31 in the NFL in yards per rush allowed (4.7) and Chicago did have 110 yards on those 20 carries (5.5 avg.) in week 17.  Of course there's always the chance of a Hester return TD, but you can't have everything. I decided to hit this early in case the weather forecast changes for the worse, in which case the line is sure to drop.

Trends (ATS unless otherwise noted)

Jets >>> 4-1 L5, 4-1 vs. Pit, 9-2 in Jan, 6-1 vs. AFC North, 1-5 SU @ Pit, 1-5 SU & ATS when rush for <100

Pittsburgh >>> 5-1 L6, 4-1 home, 9-0 in Jan., 8-1 in playoffs (4-0 H), 6-0 playoff fav of <7, 3-17-1 home fav 4<

Over >>> 4-1 Jets L5, 12-2 Jets away, 9-1 Jets as RD of 4<, 4-0 Jets away vs. AFC North, 19-1 Steelers in Jan., 14-1 Steelers in playoffs, 13-0 Steelers H in playoffs, 7-1-1 Steelers as F of 4<, 5-1 Steelers vs. AFC East

Packers >>> 4-1 L5, 7-2-1 away in Jan.

Bears >>> 4-0 L4, 4-1 home, 4-1 off solo W, 4-0 in Jan., 4-1 as D of 4<, 6-2 vs. division

Over >>> 6-1 Bears L7, 5-0 Bears H in playoffs, 11-2 Bears in Jan.

Under >>> 6-0 L6 meetings, 5-1 L6 meetings @ Chi, 6-1 Packers as RF 4<, 5-0 Packers away vs. div, 4-1 Bears H vs. div

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Saturday CFB, all trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Season to date 43-35-3 (+13.7)

3* Louisville (-3) over Connecticut - Even before UConn suspended it’s starting QB and lost their starting LG this was a play as Louisville has the edge in 8 of 9 of my matchups. Cards nearly upset Cincy and UConn’s defense is even worse without nearly the weapons on offense. Huskies may not win another game (remaining home games WVU, Pitt, Cincy) and HC Edsell wisely is looking toward next year in starting 3rd string QB Box over Senior Zach Frazier, who began the season as starter. Louisville has a balanced explosive offense on a strong home field with excited fans, and returns stud WR Beaumont who’s been out since week 3. Louisville 34, Uconn 24.

#8 Iowa (-6.5) over Wisconsin - If not for giving up a couple of non-offense TDs at Arizona, Iowa would be undefeated and they are easily among the top 10 teams in CFB. Hawkeye’s are 6-1 L7, 7-1 vs. Wisconsin, 10-1-1 as HF of 8< (7-1-1 vs. Big 10). Wisconsin has allowed 25> in 12 of 13 Big 10 road games and that won’t and their weak pass “D” (#70 pass efficiency) goes up against Iowa QB Stanzi, who is #3 in pass efficiency (#1 on 3rd down, #1 passes 20+ yards). Badgers are 0-8 on Big 10 road when scoring <24 and have totaled just 108 in L8 vs. Iowa (13.5 avg.) and 88 in L7 trips to Iowa City (12.6). Hawkeye “D” is #13 overall and #7 vs. the rush and Wisky QB Tolzien was just 13-27 in last road game vs. weak Mich. St. pass “D”. Iowa 27, Wisconsin 13

3* Michigan St./Northwestern Over (54) - Wildcats are a poor defensive team and rank just #53 in total “D” despite their 5 FBS opponents ranking 45, 60, 72, 87, and 102 in total offense. Little chance of them stopping balanced MSU offense (#23) that features #26 rush attack (206 YPG) and #47 pass attack (241) led by QB Cousins (#11 pass efficiency), plus #10 in punt returns (15.3) with a FG kicker who’s 13-13 (4-4 beyond 40) . Spartans have scored at least 26 in every game this year and averaged 35.5 PPG in L13 Big 10 road games. Northwestern can answer with #11 pass attack (284) led by QB Persa, who is #3 in pass efficiency. Secondary is MSU’s weakness and they allowed 369 passing at home to Notre Dame in only other game vs. a pass-first team. L2 meetings in Evanston were 37-20 and 41-38 MSU wins, and more of the same here. MSU 38, Northwestern 34.

3* Rutgers/Pitt Under (45.5) - Despite outburst by 2nd team QB Todd vs. porous UConn “D”, Rutgers is a very bad offensive team and he is unlikely to repeat that feat vs. Pitt “D” that has seen some strong passing games (Utah, Miami, Notre Dame) but still ranks #36. Pitt is also #1 in CFB in net punting (44.8) and Knights average just 7.3 per return. Rutgers DL is their strength and among top 15 in CFB, which matches with Pitt’s weakness, the interior OL. Scarlet Knights will play with passion for paralyzed teammate and they have thrived in this role (11-1 as D of 9>). Pitt 24, Rutgers 13,

3* Oklahoma (-3) over Missouri - Oklahoma has toyed with opponents letting them get the backdoor cover, but has led every game by at least 15 and never been in danger of losing. Though I’m not sure they are the best team in CFB, I am absolutely positive they are the most talented. They’ve won 7 straight over Missouri, are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as Big 12 F of 4<, and have the edge in 8 of my 9 matchup categories. Tigers are 2-9 H H vs. Big 12 (0-3 as D) and could be in over their heads here. Oklahoma 30, Missouri 20

3* Nebraska (-6) over Oklahoma St. and 3* Under (60) - OSU has seen nothing like Nebraska. Only one of their opponents ranks above #83 in total defense and that team (Texas A&M) would have beat them on this field if not for 5 turnovers (outgained them 535-351). Cowboys have also not played strong rushing teams with only team ranked above 48 (#17 Tulsa) getting 199 yards on 4.9 YPC. Nebraska has dominant edges in the trenches on both sides and are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS (4-0 7<) as Big 12 RF under Pellini. Huskers #1 in pass “D” vs. both yardage and efficiency and 20-25 mph winds further turns this into a battle on the ground. Nebraska 31, OSU 16

3* Arizona (-6.5) over Washington - Huskies caught USC looking ahead to Stanford in breaking a 13 game road losing streak, but should revert back to form vs. Arizona and their #10 defense (284 YPG). Good value thanks to injury to Wildcats’starting QB Foles, but his backup, Matt Scott, is a junior with plenty of game experience who’s mobility and rushing ability (497, 7.8 L2 years) matches up well with Washington’s horrid run “D” (#98, 198, 5.0). Arizona also has a huge special teams edge. Cats already have a Pac 10 loss and I don’t see them dropping out of the race here. Arizona 31, Washington 17

3* San Diego St. (-24) over N. Mexico - Aztecs hungry for MWC road win and bring powerful balanced offense (#16, 461) vs., horrid Lobo “D” (#108, 444). UNM special teams sets them up for blowouts as they are dead last #120 in both net punting (29.0) and punt returns (-0.2). SD St. 48, NMU 13

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CFB picks for Saturday. All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Season to date 37-30-3 (+14.0).

4* Texas/Nebraska Under (46.5) - Matchup of top 10 defenses, and tbest 2 DB units in CFB. Texas offense has struggled (#71, 360 YPG) and Nebraska offense overrated having played weak schedule (#76) with all opponents having a weak defensive front 7. Longhorns “D” (#6, 254 YPG) has had an extra week to prepare, will load the box to stop strong Nebraska rush attack. Their DBs can easily cover Huskers’ weak WRs man-to-man and QB Martinez has not yet proven himself as a passer. Nebraska scored a grand total of 44 points in their 4 Big 12 homes games last year (Texas Tech, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Kansas St.) and notched just 17 in last HG vs. S. Dakota St. It doesn’t hurt that 15-20 mph winds expected at game time. Nebraska 23, Texas 13.

3* Illinois/Michigan St. Under (49) - Illini have no passing game (#114, 135) to take advantage of weak MSU secondary and Spartan LBs will keep running game under control just enough to force extended drives which will consume clock and keep Spartans‘ offense on bench. MSU typically scores less at home than on the road in Big 10 play (26< 8 of L9).

3* NC State (-7.5) over ECU - Pirates CFB’s luckiest team with miracle wins over Tulsa and So. Miss, but a very bad defensive team (#114, 458) and now have lost 3 defensive starters including DB Blackwell (27 tackles) and DE Dixon (3 sacks, 5.5 TFL). Wolfpack should go for at least 40 here and ECU will have trouble answering vs. NCS “D” that’s #24 vs. the pass (173) and #2 in sacks (20).

3* Miss St./Florida Under (46.5) - Teams are #21 and #36 in total defense, as well as #2 and #26 in net punting. Miss St. will run clock with power running game and plays without a starting WR and TE. Florida banged up along OL and at QB & RB.. Kickers are combined 3-8 on FGs inside 40 yards.

3* Wake Forest/Va Tech Under (56) - In 24 HG since joining ACC, Hokies have held 22 of 24 foes to 20<, 20 to 17<, and 16 to 14<. Deacons were shut out 31-0 at FSU in 1st ACC road game, and “D” has improved each week. VPI will build lead and sit on it in 4th quarter.

3* Arizona (-23.5) over WSU - Wildcats will be forewarned as Cougars stayed within 20 of Oregon last week. They caught Ducks sleeping off big Stanford win and scored short TD off fumble on opening kickoff, but were still outgained 556-336 despite Oregon starting QB hurt (backup 13/15). Several key injuries foe WSU including WR Solomon (17 catches), S Nwachuku (22 T), LB Ledgerwood (16 T replacing another hurt starter), LT Hannam (43 straight starts) and leading tacler LB Hoffman-Ellis (40 T, 2 sacks, 4 TFL, 2 int.). Cougars not deep enough to overcome that kind of attrition.

3* Texas Tech (-3) over Oklahoma St. - Teams matched even statistically but Tech has played far tougher schedule and strong home field worth at least 5 points. Raiders 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS H vs. Cowboys (all by 6>) and H team 5-0-1 in series.

3* Ohio St. (-4) over Wisconsin - Both teams explosive on offense (OSU #18, Wisconsin #21) but Buckeyes have far superior “D” (#3), far superior special teams, and are #2 in turnover margin (+10). OSU owns the Big 10 road going 19-1 SU and they are 11-0 as Big 10 RF of <13. They have held 15 of L17 Big 10 road foes to 17<.

3* San Diego St (+1) over Air Force - Aztecs much improved and fuming over rip off loss at BYU last week (replay officials suspended by MWC). Huge SDS offensive line (306 lb. avg.) should push around smaller Air Force DL playing without injured NG Gardner. Falcons also missing S Lindsay (31 T, 4.5 TFL). SDS d. coordinator Long had good success vs. AF option while HC at N. Mexico. Aztecs have won 2 of 3 at H in series.

3* Hawaii (+6.5) over Nevada - Rainbows comes off 49-27 blowout win at Fresno and lead CFB in passing (422 YPG). Nevada makes long flight for 3rd road game in 4 weeks and is 0-8 as WAC RF of 8<. Wolfpack #82 in pass defense(230) despite not yet facing a top pass attack

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Sunday early NFL picks. All plays 2 units. All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Season to date 36-27-3 (+18.6).

2* Ravens (-7) over Broncos - Baltimore 9-1 H off a SU dog W and 4-0 H vs. Denver. Broncos poor defensive team and Ravens much better on offense at home (28.1 PPG L10). Denver has one of the most one dimensional offenses in the NFL (175 passes, 101 runs) and Ravens defensive front 7 will tee off on the QB, especially after they build a lead.

2* Bills (-2) over Jaguars - Jacksonville due for letdown after upset of Colts and are 0-7 off a SU division H win. They are 2-10 SU L12 on road and have scored 17< in 10 of 12 away. Bills are 8-1 SU & ATS as HF of 4< and their offense is improved w/Fitzgerald at QB, getting 30 at N. England and 14 vs. tough Jets “D”.

2* Browns (+3) over Falcons - Cleveland made some nice off season moves and is better than their 1-3 record, holding a 4th quarter lead in each of their 3 losses (vs. teams w/ combined 8-2 record). Browns 9-2 L11 and 9-1 L10 in Oct. Tough spot for Falcons coming off tough divisional road win at N. Orleans followed by hard fought comeback W over San Fran.

2* Buccaneers (+6.5) over Bengals - Cincy 1-9 as HF and have scored 23< in 19 of 20 at H (17< in 13 of 18). TB is one of the league’s best defensive teams, off a bye, and 5-1 in L6 road games. Bucs have managed at least 13 points in 15 of 16 away, and 20> in 8 of 13.

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Saturday’s college football plays, including the first 5* plays of the year (2 of them). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. Season to date 31-23-3 (+17.3).

5* Penn St. (-8) over Illinois - Tough for Illini to score here as they are #88 in total offense (332) with 61% (202) via the rush, while passing game is pitiful at #113 (131) and #111 (103.3) efficiency. PSU “D” has faced good rush attacks (Bama, Temple, Iowa) but still #31 (118) vs. run after finishing in top 8 each of L5 years (90, 93, 94, 88, 93 YPG). PSU is also #1 in CFB in 3rd down conversion “D” (21.1%). Illinois notched 35 in their final Big 10 road game last year at Minnesota, but scored a grand total of 55 in the previous 5. They are 1-17 in Big 10 road games when scoring <21, 2-11 SU L13 away, 1-14 SU away in Oct., and 0-5 SU at Happy Valley with all losses by 11>. Their QB is a freshman starting first true road game in front of 108,000. They are also #114 (2.7) in punt return yardage. PSU returned 8 starters on offense from 11-2 team, but have suffered due to poor QB play and tough schedule. Still they moved the ball and rushed for 127 yards on 4.1 YPC at Bama, but turned it over twice in the red zone. In last home game beat Temple 22-13 but yardage was 439-202. This was 3-0 Temple team fired up for in-state rival and PSU looking ahead to Iowa but still dominated. Illinois lost 24-13 at home to Ohio St. last week, but OSU HC Tressel went conservative with play calling after QB Pryor got hurt. Illinois scored a 4th quarter TD to pull within 17-13, and Buckeyes promptly went on 6 play TD drive, all runs. The Illini have improved under new DC Kroenig, but still a weak front 7 that will be on the field all day .

5* California (-7.5) over UCLA - UCLA has lived off the rush, winning 3 straight despite being #118 (91) in passing and #120 (84.17) efficiency. Bruins use same Pistol attack Nevada used to embarrass Cal on national TV, but that was just a problem with reading system, not with Bears run “D”. Cal returns most of front 7 that finished #23 (112, 3.3) vs. run in ‘09 and has held their other 3 opponents this year to <100 , including Colorado and Arizona. Bears off a bye so 2 weeks to figure it out and LB Mike Mohamed, the reigning Pac 10 Defensive POY, will return after missing the last 2. UCLA is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS at Cal (L3 14>), 2-10 SU on Pac 10 road, 1-5 as Pac 10 RD, 0-6 as Pac 10 D of 8<, 0-8 SU away in Oct., and 1-5-1 off 3 SU wins. Cal brings balanced offense with Sr. QB Riley (219 YPG, #37 efficiency) and solid rushing attack (#34, 190, 5.1) led by Shane Vereen. This is their prime role as they are 6-1 SU & ATS in Pac 10 H opener (L5 wins 20.2 avg.) and 8-1 as Pac 10 HF of 11< (36.1-15.3 avg.)

3* S. Florida (-8) over Syracuse - The Orange are indeed improved but still have lost 25 of 26 Big East road games (21 by 10>), scoring 17< in 20 of 23. They have also lost 5 straight to USF, all by 14>. The Bulls are an explosive team returning 10 starters on offense including QB BJ Daniels, and both starting WRs return after missing the L3 w/injury. USF is big and fast and will no longer be the inconsistent bunch they were under Jim Leavitt. The Skip Holtz era opens in style.

3* S. Carolina (+7.5) over Alabama - The Tide has been living off turnovers and despite the score were held to 273 total yards vs. Florida. In their 32-2 SU run they have played just 10 true road games and just 1 vs. a team that finished with a winning SEC record. That makes this their toughest true road game during the entire stretch. The Gamecocks are a legit top 15 team with potent offense and stingy defense. SC is 8-2 as SEC HD of 4.5> and capable of outright win. SC 27, Bama 26.

3* Florida (-6.5) over LSU - Gators played Bama dead even at line of scrimmage and return home where they are 40-2 SU. They bounce back well (6-1 off L, 6-1 after allow 28>) and are 7-1-1 as SEC HF of 22<. LSU a very inexperienced team and play just 2nd road game. The offense is horrible (#91, 327) as is their QB play (#116 efficiency 97.9). Their defense has played well but has yet to see a premier offensive line, or the overall talent they will see here. Tigers are 3-11-1 vs. Florida and 0-5 SU & 4-1 ATS as SEC RD.

3* Miami, O/Cincinnati Over (53) - Schools are 18 miles apart and 7 of L8 meetings have totaled 50>. Cincy got offense going in 2nd half vs. Oklahoma and faces very weak secondary. 6’5” Miami QB Dysert, who threw for 2600 yards in ‘09, comes in hot after leading comeback win over Kent. He’s completed 76% with 5 TDs in his L5 quarters. The Redskins will be without LB Kennedy (leads team in tackles and TFL) and Bearcats without top CB Battle (true frosh backup).

3* Virginia Tech (-21.5) over C. Michigan - Normally a letdown spot after back-to-back road ACC wins, but you can bet James Madison was mentioned more than once this week. Prior to that game, Tech had won 23 straight non-BCS home games by avg. 42-7 w/8 shutouts (1-0 SU & ATS since). Hokies 8-1 L9, 4-1 HF of 13>, and have only H games with Wake and Duke on deck. This is a team that knows how to get on a roll (12-2 off 2W) and has allowed just 10.9 PPG in L13 Oct. H games. CMU playing 4th road game (1 in OT) in 5 weeks and reeling from 17 point H loss to Ball St. Chippewas 1-4 RD of 17> and lost L3 away vs. ACC by combined 156-45.

3* Arkansas (-5.5) over Texas A&M - Basically the same cast of characters (Hogs 17 starters back, A&M 15) that met on this same field in a 47-19 Arkansas romp last year. Hogs have big mismatch with their OL over Aggies DL, their DBs over A&M receivers, and in special teams as well. They’ve had a week off to stew over Bama loss, and should bounce back nicely here.

3* Tulsa (+6.5) - This number just wrong as Tulsa has better team and this is not a strong home field. I project them with more rushing yards (164-140), equal passing (271-270), big 3rd down edge (48.0-35.7), and the special teams edge is huge. SMU is 0-4 SU & ATS as HF and 0-7 as F of 8<.

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