defending champions out of the NL West are not the favorites in 2013 to
even come out of their own division according to our 2013 NL West Division Odds.
However, their SF Giants projected starting rotation may have argue
that. Unless Tim Lincecum can make a huge come back from his abysmal
2012 season then the LA Dodgers projected starting rotation is the best in the NL West.
- is clearly the ace of this staff posting incredible numbers last
year. One could argue though he got a bit lucky with an opponent BABIP
of .259 and a 79% LOB percentage. His FIP suggests his ERA may rise to
3.40 or around there this year, but I would tend to argue. Cain is a
work horse and has been getting better every year. I expect another Cy
Young candidacy for him in 2013.
- surpassed Tim Lincecum in this rotation and is a nice break up of the
1-2 right handed punch the Giants used to provide in their rotation.
Bumgarner was able to go over 200 innings and have great control walking
as many batters per 9 as the Giants rotation's ace, Matt Cain. Things
look bright for Bumgarner and I will back him on the road even vs. a
team that struggles vs. lefties. Continue Reading
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Miami Marlins Projected Rotation
Atlanta Braves Projected Starting Rotation
Seahawks vs. Falcons Playoff Preview 2013By Freddy Wills on 01/11/2013 10:02 PM
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, 46)
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game is easily the hardest game to figure out on the weekend. The
Falcons who never have won a playoff game with Matt Ryan as their QB
have to face arguably the hottest team in the league in the Seattle
Seahawks who decided to take a trip back to the west coast after
shocking the Washington Redskins. I myself have not decided on which
side I will be on in this game.
Originally I told myself
whoever won last weeks Divisional round game between the Redskins and
Seahawks I was going to back this week. However, after thinking about
it and given how poorly and flat the Seahawks defense played last week
against the Redskins in the first quarter and how they have to travel
across the country and the early game I'm back to being undecided.
Hence that this game is like flipping a coin at least for now, but lets
take a look at what each team has done to win this year.When Seattle has the ball...
Seahawks led the league in rushing attempts per game as well as rushing
play% with 55% of their calls being rushing plays. Despite the fact
that many believe Russell Wilson was allowed to throw the ball more down
the stretch is not the case as they ran the ball 57.3% over their final
3 games. However, they relied on the run 10% more in their play calls
on the road. This fact is due to the fact that they probably found
themselves behind more often than not. Atlanta is 29th in the league
allowing 4.8 ypc overall and at home despite only playing 6 teams in the
top 10 of rushing ypc. What is more amazing is they are 5-1 against
those 6 teams and that's because they get early leads in most games and
are ranked 10th in fewest rushing attempts against.
The key to
this game for Seattle is getting an early lead and I'm unsure if they
will be able considering how they started their last road game against
Washington. However, people continue to under rate Russell Wilson.
Wilson actually finished ahead of Ryan in QB rating ranking 4th in the
league with a 100.1 and finished the year with a 119.5 over his last
three games. Wilson was extremely accurate in college and nothing has
changed, and winning on the road has become more common for him winning
his last 3 road games. However, this game does come in a dome where
he's 0-2 this year.When Atlanta has the ball...
will be going up against one of the best and most physical defenses in
the league. The Seahawks are in the top 10 in passing yards and rushing
yards allowed. Matt Ryan will pose a difficult test for the Seahawks
as he has many weapons. The Falcons will try to come out hot to avoid
all the pressure of not winning a playoff game to explode in their face.
Atlanta is ranked 7th in the league throwing the ball 63% of the time
and they are pretty darn good at it. Matt Ryan only gets sacked 4.35%
of his drop backs, and is also 6th in the league in QB rating while also
ranking in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt.
attack which is led by veteran Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers could
have a little more trouble if they don't find balance early. The
Falcons are ranked 29th with a meager 3.7 ypc average on the season and
3.9 in their home games. It will be interesting to see what type of
strategy Ryan and the Falcons come out with. I think we will know very
early in this game which team is going to win or lose.
I would bank my NFL prediction
on whatever team scores first will win. Either team could come out
flat here from the time off or the short rest long road trip or even the
pressure that's on the Falcons as this is a huge game for them.
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the Seahawks leave their hostile environment in Seattle and fly east
for a hostile environment in St. Louis. Public is loving the Seahawks
after Monday’s defensive performance and I think it’s going to be a
little different on the road where they are unable to get the same
advantages against opposing offensive lines. St. Louis also likes to
run a no huddle scheme on offense that will give Seattle fits. The
Seahawks do not travel well and are 17-36 -2 ATS int heir last 55 road
Don’t sleep on the Rams defense either as they have one of
the best pass rushes led by Chris Long. This leads to turnovers and
good pass defense. I think it will lead to the being aggressive to sell
out and stop the rushing game from Seattle because Russell Wilson has
been kept under wraps thus far. They are not letting him throw and I do
not anticipate them doing that here today. It’s not like the Seahawks
are dominating on the ground either they averaged just 3.9 ypc on the
road to the Rams 4.4 at home last year and this year the two teams are
tied at 4.1 ypc. The Rams ran all over the Redskins in a similar home
game where they were 3 poitn under dogs.
Don’t sleep on the Rams,
Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach and he’ll have his team ready in this
game. Seattle is ranked 22nd allowing 44.7% conversions on third down
and St. Louis should be able to stay on the field all day by converting
these third downs now that they are home where they converted 58%
against a good Redskins defense. While Seattle is 30th in converting
third downs and struggle in the red zone ranked 31 with a meager 25% RZ
TD%. I expect this game to be either tight throughout or for the Rams
to win by multiple touchdowns. Either way unless the Seahawks suddenly
let Russell Wilson loose the game plan is pretty easy for the Rams and
the Seahawks are in a major let down spot on short rest after they got
lucky against the Packers.
Navy vs. Penn State Preview & PickBy Freddy Wills on 09/13/2012 7:49 PM
Before I get to Saturday's free pick make sure you tune into my sports
radio show on Friday evening for the release of one of my premium plays
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to get the premium sports pick now onto this week's free college football pick.
like the Midshipmen to possibly upset Penn State this week. Last week
we loved Penn State at +10 and they covered easily on the road against
Virginia, but now it's back home where all the turmoil exists for a Penn
State team that will face a service academy for the first time since
1979 and Navy for the first time since 1974.
It's pretty obvious what Navy is going to do here, and that's run the
ball with their triple option. Now Penn State has great linebackers,
but Penn State does not have much time to prepare for this game while
Navy has an extra week. It also hurts Penn State that they do not
regularly face the triple option actually none of the players on the
team have and their head coach Bill O'Brien is an offensive coach that
will have more of an offensive mindset. With that said Navy should be
able to pick up first downs and control the time of possession.
good as Penn State has been on defense they have been terrible on third
down allowing 18 of 20 conversions through the first two games. This
is where Navy will have a huge advantage as they are regularly in the
top 20 in third down conversions ranking 15th a year ago. As bad as
Navy was against a Notre Dame team superior against the run they were
still able to convert 44.4% of their tries on third down. Lastly do not
sleep on Navy's ability to pass with junior QB Trey Miller as he
surprised Notre Dame completing 14/19 for 192 yards. Penn State also
lacks depth on defense and if Navy can avoid the turnovers they should
be able to wear out this defense like Ohio did in the first game watch
out for an upset.
Like Penn State, Navy's strength is at linebacker and they are used to
getting pushed around up front. However, in this game Penn State
really lacks RB talent and their two guys are banged up. They've been
unable to run the ball and Bill O'Brien has already shown he's not shy
about passing the ball with senior QB Matt McGloin. However, McGloin is
nothing special as we already know and when he gets into the red zone
That's a huge issue because their place kicker is
just terrible. He cost Penn State the game last week and I don't see
much changing at home where he's sure to get some boos. Penn State will
struggle to score and you should see a few red zone failures either due
to kicking or the lack in confidence in the kicker leading to O'Brien
to go for it on 4th down when he shouldn't. Either way I think this
favors Navy who is 37-17 on point spreads in their last 54 road games.