I'm leaning Seattle plus the points due to the value from open (Seattle -2.5) to the current line.
I can basically get the plus 2.5 juice free but have another online book (Bovada) where I can play Seattle at 240/200. I know the sharps always recommend buying to the 3, but to me the math tells me it's a bad bet.
Consider this.....if you buy the 3, you need the spread to land on EXACTLY 3 MORE THAN one out of five times to make this bet positive EV.
Will this game land EXACTLY on the Denver -3 MORE THAN 20% of the time? Seems to me that it's best to take the 2.5 or the ML. Thoughts?
Nothing is a lock.....we all understand that. But there is no way that the total for game 6 should be at 201.5. I love the OVER in this game. OKC -5 presents no value as G3 and G4 were at 3.5. OKC could easily cover the 5, but the line is a no play for me. The OVER is easily a 65% proposition or more.
ANALYSIS: In the entire series, both teams have had just a single game where they have scored less than 100 points. The 99 point game for OKC in game one and the 82 point game 3 dud for the Spurs. Other than that, both teams have both scored over 100 points and the totals have been easily covered (231 in game 2; 212 in game 4 and 211 in game 5). These teams like to run and they will continue to run. Even when they are not scoring (game 5's start of 8 total points in the first 4 minutes sure looked like an under) they are running up and down the court and taking quick shots. This style will continue to create fast break opportunities for both sides. A final point in favor of the OVER is this is an elimination game. Whichever team trails late, will put the other team to the line to give the 3's a chance the other way. Get your play in now, this total has to go up. It can't stay at 201.5.
Two words...LIVE WAGERING.
I'm no pro capper. I'm really a lifetime break-even....so that makes me the bookies dream.....the guy that can always afford to lose the juice and pay it forever.
However, on these playoffs, I do feel that the "bettor" has an advantage with live wagering. I'm 4-0 on these plays in the playoffs and have loved all of my plays. Yesterday my plan was to take the Heat if Boston could get a lead. I bet the Heat -1 in the 2nd quarter...it worked like a champ.
I just don't have the patience not to gamble on everything. So, I will remain a gambling donkey.