Here it is guys- I am going to the game tonight and can't wait!!! Here is my problem with Covers...Confirmation Bias. You see CB is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms what they think will happen. So in the case of the game tonight, most of Covers (yes...you) thinks that Jags will get pounded due to recent history along with stats from so long ago it doesn't even apply.
The reality is that the rookie QB Gabbert is getting better (not worse), the defense is not as bad as they look on paper, and it is a home game on MNF. The problem is that the Jags have score only about 10 ppg over the last 5 losses compared to the Ravens almost 34 ppg in their 4 wins.
So I agree that the Jags will likely not win tonight. Confirmation Bias tells you that you should take the Ravens...but up until what line??? Is it relative to the opening line or have you capped the game at 10, 11, 12, 13... If you are that good, congrats. I think most of us know that the Ravens win tonight. Anyone could argue taking the points or laying the points. Here is my view:
The Jags will run the ball tonight and run it well. I know that Ray "Murderer" Lewis will be ever present and yapping his brains off...and I know that they are dominating. The Jags have the 10th rated rushing attack and will look to RUN first. They will have limited success but the clock will run too. The Jags are in the top 10 in pass defense as well...I see the Ravens running all over the Jags tonight.
Here is the point. I don't give a shit if you take either side- you can find a stat to make you feel good about pushing the button or calling your man. Both teams will play defense and both teams will run the ball. That is who they are. I hope my Jags make a game of it, but either way it will be a LOW SCORING AFFAIR with two top 10 defensive teams. That is their game and that is what they will come to do.
LARGE PLAY UNDER 20 FIRST HALF
LARGE PLAY UNDER 38 GAME