Cleveland St. +3 +135 m/l. .. like yesterday, the Pac 10 is done.
Pitt -8.5 - Their nerves and cobwebs are gone from Friday. OK Stata doesn't match up well with this tough, physical team.
Mich St. -4. Like the SEC, kiss the Pac 10 goodbye today
Alabama a 9 point favorite with the total of 45.5 and I believe the Tide will cover the number. Alabama got a run through of the spread offense by Florida and they've got 10 times the O as Utah. Also, when it comes to prep time, Saban is a major stud. Saban’s team led by a combined score of 94-20 at the half. Against super-fast Florida in TY’s SEC championship, Bama overcame a 17-10 deficit at the half to lead 20-17 in the fourth quarter before Tim Tebow’s extraordinary heroics.
On the other hand, Utah will have a hard time, as did many other teams, containing Alabama's wicked running game with RBs Glen
Coffee, Mark Ingram & Roy Upchurch pounding out a combined 2399 yards and 5.8 ypc. 6-4 frosh Julio Jones (51 recs.) is likely to be the best WR Utah has faced all season. And while QB J.P. Wilson (57.7%) is not sensational, he has learned how to care for the ball (only 6 ints.). CB Javier Arenas (2 PR TDs) is one of the top return men in the country, helping the Tide tie for the lead in defense & STs TDs TY with eight.
This doesn't count for anything, but I looked at the lines and there are a few I like on the surface. Until I do some more research, I'm leaning toward the folowing:
Navy +3. This team has been competitive all year.
Arizona - 3. Stoops has to win this game to keep him in spades. Also, BYU probably will come into this with a bad attitude
TCU -2.5 Boise St. will have a difficult time scoring against these guys. I'm also certain TCU's coach is harping on the fact of what Boise did a few years ago against Oklahoma
Florida St. -5. Wisconsin has been marginal at best all year.
NC State +7. This team has been a covering machine and Rutgers isn't worth laying 7 imho
Northwestern +13.5 I know the Wildcats will be ecstatic to be there and I question if Mizzou is going to get up for this game
OK State -3. This is a step down in class for OSU and too big of a leap up for Oregon
Minnesota/Kansas over 57. Two average defenses usually spell a high scoring affair
Iowa -3.5 ... potbs.. play o' the bowl season
Give Ferentz a month to scheme against SEC foes and he's
magic. Iowa has been outmatched in their last few bowl games but smoked Florida
in 2004 and beat LSU in the Cap. Lost the 2006 Outback to Florida after sucking hard the first half, making a
big comeback to get jerked by the refs on the onside kick, and lost to a McCoy-led
Texas team by two in the 2006 Alamo.
SC looks terrible on paper. Their biggest win is over Ole Miss, they don't have
a 1,000-yard rusher, and Smelley has more INTs than TDs.
Given that Iowa has its usual punishing defense, a RB in Shonn Greene that is
deserving of a Heisman invite, has played very, very well over the last six
games, and has lost four games by a combined 12 points (three to ranked teams),
-3 is a steal.
Penn State +10 & under 45.5. USC has a terrible offense and I see this as a 17-10 game
Va Tech +1.. wrong team favored here as Cincy plays in a way weaker league.
OK +3.5. Lou Holtz brought up a good point. None of Stoops' coaching staff is looking or making a change. The last few bowls they've lost was created by radical losses in their coaching.
Texas -10. McCoy comes out smoking tOSU to prove the Longhorns deserve to be #1 potbs #2
I'm giving you my picks and analysis of every game this week. I'll probably only play between 2 - 5 of them with Rutgers and Oklahoma being my top 2
Wednesday, December 3rd
UL Lafayette -4.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
I'll pass this game. My brother, about 100 years ago, played center for MTSU and in his Frosh year, the starting guy tore his acl on the 2nd play of the season and he was put in and ended up finishing the entire year starting for them. That first game was quite an indoctrination - he had to tackle Two Tall Jones the entire game and TT beat the hell out my bro...
Thursday, December 4th
Rutgers -10.5 vs. Louisville
Rutgers on a killer roll these days peeling off 5 straight wins and covering the last 7. This will be the final regular season home game for Rutgers Sr. QB Teel who, with the help of this stud Jr. WR Kenny Britt, has 1290 YP & 13 TDP's the last 4 games. These two will crush Louisville's depleted secondary and UL has thrown in the towel for the year having lost the last 4 in a row. Cardinals giving up 14 turnovers the past 4 games and Rutgers zone blitzes will nail Louisville QB Cantwell. Get out the axe because Schiano and company had last week off to prepare. My POW.
Friday, December 5th
Ball St. -10.5 vs. Buffalo @ Detroit over 60
Initially, I liked Buffalo, but after some digging, I'm swaying to Ball St winning, but the over is where I'm going to play. If last years game is an indicator of this year, Buffalo will be crushed. Last year, Ball State outgained them in running by a margin of 274-83 in a 49-14 pounding. Nevertheless, that was then and this is now. Buffalo has covered last 8 in a row as a dog, but Ball St. 8-2-1 ats this year. The glaring stat to me that pushed me in this direction was Buffalo 2nd from the last in the nation in sacks, and Ball State 5th in the nation in fewest sacks allowed. Add into the equation Buffalo's "triplets" of RB James Starks (123 ypg rushing), WR Naaman
Roosevelt (86 recs., 1196 yds.) and QB Drew Willy (64%, 2885 YP, 22 TDP, just
5 ints.) and the scoreboard should light up.
Saturday, December 6th
Navy -11.5 vs. Army at Philly
Even though George W. Bush will be in the audience, his presence will be of little help for the Black Knights of Army. Navy Midshipmen winners of last 6 of these contests SU and 5-1 ats. Also, Navy a sturdy 16-8 ats road team last 24. I've been to two of these games in the past and I recommend attending this game more than I do the Super Bowl (which I've attended 11 of). During that game, there is probably more wealth and power, per capita, than any other location in America. If you have any sense of patriotism, you'd love the pagentry, the spirit, and to not sound overly corny, you'll come away with a sense of pride and the knowledge that our country, with the military leadership you'll meet, is in good hands. You certainly couldn't say that if there were that many politicians in a given place.
UConn -3 vs. Pitt under 47
Are you kidding me? Combined, these two teams QB's have just 9 td passes this whole year. UConn jr. RB Donald Brown (nation-leading 148
ypg rushing) & Pitt counterpart soph LeSean McCoy (1308 YR & 20 TDs) should keep the clock running more than the scoreboard. If your choice is to play the side, then consider this... UConn has won and covered last 3 of 4 in this series, UConn 6-0-1 ats in final games since moving up into D1, and UConn going 15-5 ats at Rentschler Stadium since 2005. Huskies humiliated Pitt on Pitt's home field last year 34-14 and imho, UConn a better team this year than last.
WVa. -7 vs. So. Fla.
Words cannot explain how much disdain I have for that nauseating coach Bill Stewart of WVU. How did a guy this bad become a D1 coach? Does he have photos of the AD and his transvestite lover that he's using as collateral to keep his job? Maybe. But, imho, this game breaks down to So. FL. having the quick defensive prowess to contain QB White and, due to an underwhelming supporting cast, that is all you need to stop the Mountaineers. USF Bulls snapped a 3 game losing streak by beating UConn and have had an extra week to prepare. I believe this is the case of one team having another's "number" after having USF force 6 to's last year in this contest. Not a very large play for me.
Cal - 35 vs. Washington
This will come down to whatever Cal wants to win by. I'll assume the alumni of Cal will put the heat on HC Tedford to run up the score. This way, they'll bet big with their books and use that money to help attract new talent! To my knowledge, Ty Willingham's name hasn't been bandied about for any coaching openings. Consequently, I have to believe his attention span has been about zero along with his work ethic. Spread-wise, these teams in opposite directions with UW 0-9 ats it's last 9, while Cal 6-0 ats at home this year.
USC -33 vs. UCLA at The Rose Bowl
USC's defense may outscore UCLA, but I have to take the points in this crosstown rivalry. I'm not impressed so much in SC's offense and Bruin d.c. Walker's schemes have been able to puzzle the SC offensive
machinery the past two meetings. Both of those games UCLA covered (including a memorable
13-9 upset in '06).
Trojans juggernaut just 5-11 vs. line last 16 on Pac-10 road. If sage Bruin
(and ex-SC) o.c. Norm Chow can find a way to limit QB Craft's mistakes, Bruin D competent enough to prevent complete embarrassment. Bruins 14-5 ats last 19 in a dog role and 20-6 ats last 26 in the Rose Bowl.
Arizona -10.5 vs. Arizona St.
Road team 13-3 last 16 ats. But, that doesn't mean much to me in this particular game. Last week, Sun Devils offense didn't score a TD and barely put up 100 total yards of offense, as their D scored their TD's vs. below average, look ahead UCLA. ASU peeling off last 3 SU vs. wretched UW, Wazzou, and UCLA... no grand achievement there. Now, they face a "real" team at the in-state rival Arizona Wildcats. HC Stoops needing this win to put him at 7-5 which will probably be enough victories to retain his job for now. Sun Devils having to face spread offense managed by oc Sonny Dykes with Sr. QB Tuitama gunning to close out his Wildcat career with a splash. This will be over by half, but just like his brother Bob, Mike Stoops will keep the whole squad out there and run up the score.
Cincinnati -7.5 @ Hawaii
Cincinnati, already with the Big East title and Orange Bowl bid, will treat this as an early tropical island vacation. Bearcat HC Kelly will be playing his team tentatively, attempting to avoiding injury for their Orange Bowl appearance. Warriors QB Alexander nailing 867 yards passing and 7 td passes the past three games will be able to take advantage against Bearcat d without Mike Mickens, Mr. Everything, who is their DB sidelined with a knee injury. Imagine that, you have a knee injury, you won't be exerting yourself, and you and your cronies are going to Hawaii for 5 to 8 days on the school's dime?. I see quite a few cocktails with tiny umbrellas in store for him and his teammates. Given any other situation, I would be betting on Cincinnati. But, they don't need the game and will hesitate to play hard for fear of injury.
Troy -11 vs. Arky St.
Bowl eligible game for either team as the winner is slotted to play in The New Orleans Bowl. Troy, coming off a bye week, will be tunnel visioned this game certainly after their last November 23 annihilation of UL Lafayette 48-3. In that game, Troy RB Harris nailed 234 yards rushing while the entire rushing offense ended up with 391 yards on the ground. Trojans transfer QB Levi, installed in mid season, throwing for 11 td's and only 2 int's this year. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves 1-6 ats last 7. Trojan defense dominated 27-0 last year holding ASU to 237 yds., forcing 4 TOs, including one fumble
returned for a Troy TD.
Fl. Intn'l -7 vs. Western Ky.
WKU last win was September 20th, but have been very competitive vs. conference powerhouses Troy, FAU, & MTSU as well as having a very competitive effort vs. Ball State 6 weeks ago or so. FIU blowing a gut wrenching OT loss 57-50 against arch rival FAU last week and will lack that extra gas in the tank to put away the Hilltoppers
Tulsa -13.5 vs. East Carolina
Ever since Tulsa lost to Houston, or shall I say destroyed by Houston, they haven't done poo-poo. Therefore, I'm going to take Holtz's Pirates to keep it in arms length. If Tulsa does wake up on offense, as we all know they're very dangerous with 78 TDs & nearly
7000 yards this season. Holtz 19-7 as a dog since joining ECU and Tulsa's defense, ranked 44th nationally, will give way to tough Sr. QB Pinckney. Posted total on this game is 65 and the over looks decent enough for a small play.
BC -1 vs. Va. Tech @ Tampa under 39
4th game for these two in last couple of years as BC a regular season winner SU both times, and Va Tech winning the title game. Neither of these teams have put up more than 28 points in its last 7 games and both teams have excellent defenses with BC getting 33 takeaways - 2nd best in the country as well as allowing only 87 ypg in rushing. BC is down to talented Frosh Davis and that factors in to underutilization of a passing attack.
Fl. - 9.5 vs. Alabama @ Atlanta
Bama +10 is a solid play. Nick Saban
vs.Urban Meyer. Saban is twice the coach
Meyer is and imho, when you have two relatively evenly matched teams, I
tend to bet on the man on the sidelines. After all, how many guys do
you know can follow dog meat Shula and have a national contender in 2
years?
To me, based on what I've seen, Florida hasn't played a
team as talented, huge & strong yet quick, and as well coached and
disciplined as Alabama this year. Not that Alabama has had that big of
an adversary yet either, but a team like Florida, to me, will have a
harder time adjusting if Alabama can get them out of their game.
Antithetically, Bama is so sound in their fundamentals that, imho,
they'll have Florida playing their game. Based on Alabama's defense, I
believe they're going to be in Tebow's life the entire night -
something he isn't accustomed to. And, after all, as the axiom goes,
offense scores points, defense wins games. I believe that'll be highly
pronounced this Saturday.
OK -17 vs. Mizzou @ Kansas City
Sooners have been ringing it up and lapping the track more and more each game, so why stop now? Chase Daniel & co. losing to sub-marginal Kansas last weekend and now they face an OK D that has held down high powered offenses like TTech and OK State. This will be Sam Bradfords last game to have his Heismann shot - and he'll dial it up on Mizzou defense. Bradford is an excellent NFL prospect. He reminds me of an Elway/Montana hybrid having the gun of an arm like Elway, and the calm, professional attributes of Montana. PLAY OF THE WEEK 2