Further on our immediate prediction ("Denver won't even win AFC West"):
Has anyone else noticed that the Payton-Manning-as-Moses story, leading a diaspora of former Colts stars to the promised land in Denver has, well, em, failed totally to materialize?
Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon signed with days of the Manning-ful Mystery Tour's launch, both in cities they knew were off his list when they did.
What's most notable is, they didn't even wait a few days to see where Payton was going.
Now, Jeff Saturday, courted by Denver and Green Bay.... goes to Green Bay, not to join Payton on Broncoland.
We've always regarded Payton Manning as a whining, narcissistic, carping guy who throws his own teammates under the bus. (One of dozens of clips plays over and over now on the NFL network.)
Those who doubt this view are entitled to their opinion, but evidently, it's one not shared by those who know Payton Manning best.
The Colts are voting with their feet to confirm our view -- that stampede you hear isn't towards reuniting with Mr. Regular Season... it's away.
"For the Saints, the coverup was worse than the bounty program."
Press types, who haven't had an investigative coup since Watergate, love to say things like that. But is it really true?
It's bad to lie about something, to be sure. But what's worse... lying about trying to hurt someone, or trying to hurt someone?
If I were the one being targeted by a 300-pound monster, I'll tell you honestly, I'd rather he tell a lie than try to rip my head off.
So, yah, covering up the bounty program after 2009 was bad; lying about it even in recent months was bad too.
But the worst thing was continuing the program, and starting it in the first place.
Sports commentators love to say things like "the cover up was worse" because it's a time-worn truism that doesn't require any work.
Their laziness is a bad thing too.
Yet it's hardly the worst thing they do.
Payton Manning's work ethic is second to none. He's the greatest regular season quarterback in NFL history, to be sure.
And in a year or two, Denver may be a contender.
But Bronco fans are in for a rude shock if they expect his entrance to immediately turn their team into a Superbowl contender, or even, this season, a playoff team.
The machine that was the Colts offense took years to build, with Manning playing with a group of veteran players who changed very little from year to year. He knew what the receivers were going to do, they knew what he was going to do, and a whole "language" developed between them that enabled him, playing indoors, to run a quasi-fast-break offense.
(For those of you who think indoor/outdoor doesn't matter, check out the New Orleans Saints out of doors the last few years.)
Now, Denver may make some more acquisitions, late in free agency or via the draft, that will change this picture on the margin.
But as of now, knowing what we know, it's going to take more than one training camp for the Broncos to get rolling. Buy the puts.
Well, the "system" some have asked us to track -- which coincided with our favorite runline of the day, Lincecum and the Giants -- looks as though it had a losing day, making it 4-3.
In general, I always believe in handicapping the games as well as relying on something like that -- but in this case, it made no difference anyway.
There are some games that look promising for Saturday -- as always, the following are not picks, but ideas or "leans" to promote discussion.
Phillies cover; Yankees cover --
on to Friday...