I frequently get asked by friends how to hedge a bet in the best way possible. I eventually decided that I would just be lazy and link them to an online hedge calculator, but found the current offerings pretty ... inaccurate. So, I decided to build my own.
BobbyBucks Sports Betting Hedge Calculator
It's simple to use. Just enter how much you bet, how much you were going to win and then the odds on the game/side you are going to hedge and hit Calculate.
No ads, no graphics, no referral links - just figure out the right amount to wager to properly hedge your bets.
Enjoy.
Since there really hasn't been any huge cards to play the last few days and no huge revelations, I figured I would give readers a grab bag of points to consider when handicapping games.
- If you're looking to cap a Maine game, realize that they don't have a player over 6'7". Their physical limitations were a huge reason why they couldn't cover against the Blake Griffin Oklahoma Sooners.
- Syracuse guard Devendorf looks like he's going to be thrown out of school in the coming weeks. Make sure before playing any Syracuse games in the near future that you check his enrollment status after he allegedly punched a woman in the face.
- Oklahoma State was already pretty thin on the inside and now they have thrown 6'11" forward Thomas off their team. Thomas was actually a significant contributor so look for OSU to get dominated down low by bigger teams with an inside scoring threat. OSU could provide some good fading opportunities.
- When Davidson played West Virginia, they were obscenely rebounded and only WVU's inability so shoot the basketball kept Davidson from losing (that and Currey get hot at the end). Look for Davidson to struggle against better teams who can rebound and shoot free throws. WVU also employed a switching man defense on Curry and they were able to bother him with longer, taller defenders. Look for that formula to provide the Davidson losses this year.
Hopefully, some of these tidbits will help you cap future games for these teams.
A lot of Big Ten backers and Duke haters have a lot to be happy about today as Michigan knocked off Duke at home. I saw some commentary on how people weren't sure how good Duke really was and I hope I can clear up that issue.
As a Duke fan for 15+ years now, I knew that there was a very good chance that they would lose today and a very good chance that they wouldn't cover the 9.5. Duke had to play a tough road game at Purdue and then to have to follow it up against a very good Michigan squad, also on the road, was a logistical point of interest when capping this game. The main reason why Duke lost this game is because they didn't hit open jump shots and continued to stay on the perimeter as opposed to driving to the basket. Henderson picking up two very early fouls limited Duke's driving attack as Scheyer, Singler and Smith really aren't true slashers. Duke has made their living at the free throw line and the lack of free throws was a clear sign they didn't drive into the heart of the Michigan 1-3-1.
Zoubek was a terrible matchup against Sims who showed athleticism and the ability to shoot the 3. Strategically, I would have liked ot have seen more Thomas or McClure on Sims as Zoubek just couldn't guard or run with Sims. Another concerning issue is the disappearance of Greg Paulus who looked terrible shooting the basketball in limited action. With Paulus not shooting well, he's completely useless to the team as he can't defend a lamp post on the defensive end and this forces Coach K to stick with Smith even when he's having a terrible game (like he did today).
Duke fans shouldn't be concerned though. They won't shoot this poorly many times this year and if they had hit even a few of their numerous 3s, they stay close and maybe even win the game. Teams will still be reluctant to zone Duke with all of the perimiter shooters that they have. This was just a loss to a good team that plays a very unique offensive and defensive style in a very tough gym for road teams. Duke has rebounded pretty well for a team with no inside threat so they are stil a Top 10 team talent wise with very few overall weaknesses.
What does this mean for cappers? Not much to be honest. Duke is still one of the most heavily bet teams by the public so you'll still see huge lines for Duke to cover. This loss won't effect the line against UNC Asheville.
Leading by 14 points going into half against Michigan State, UNC opened up at -2 for the second half. Those looking at 2nd half lines should know that UNC is a special type of second half play as opposed to other powerhouse teams. UNC plays at one speed - end to end - and they do it for 40 minutes a game. In addition, you don't have to worry about Roy Williams opening up his bench since his bench players are more than capable of outplaying most starting lineups on opposing teams. Ed Davis provides a tremendous rebounding presence off the bench and they have experience with Bobby Frasor filling in for Lawson.
Compare this team to my favorite team and UNC's rival - Duke. Duke, when they have a comfortable lead, play a "four corners" offense and hold the ball on top of the 5 second line until the shot clock wears down. In addition, the Duke bench, outside of Paulus, does not have much scoring potency with players like McClure, Plumlee, Thomas/Zoubek and Williams. Duke would be a team to be wary of covering large second half numbers where UNC may not only win every game this year, but win every half.
We learned tonight that the ACC has a few teams with one trick ponies which could make betting these teams in the 2nd half or for entire games much easier. Rice for Boston College and McClinton for Miami FL drive their teams - when they have success, their teams win and look great. When they look bad or get ejected from games (McClinton), these teams will struggle as their surrounding cast just can't carry the scoring load.
Boston College couldn't cover at home against a very offensively challenged Iowa team and scored only 57 points. Rice "only" went for 15 and no other Golden Eagle reached double digits. Miami FL, after losing McClinton in the 1st half after he "slapped" a Buckeye, Miami FL couldn't hold a double digit lead at home. So, if you hear that either Rice of McClinton are in foul trouble or have a physical ailment, fading them is the right play especially since the public plays those two teams pretty heavily.