Every day I analyze each matchup page for every MLB game. I
like taking note of the streaks. Here is what I found:
Detroit is 9-1 in their last 10, and A. Sanchez (U 4-1) has
posted 5 straight QS. They are facing J. Zimmerman (U 4-1) and the under may be
worth a look tonight, however the Detroit/OVER parlay is 7-5 in its last 12.
Fading Milwaukee with the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 games
and they send W. Peralta (1.67, 6.00) to the hill against Grimm (1.27, 2.28.)
If you’ve been betting the alternate run line (-2.5 runs)
against Houston lately, you’ve gone 7-3 in your last 10. Fading HOU with the over
is 7-3 in the last 10 as well, and they’re playing the Angels who have an over of
5-2 in their last 7 and are 21-10 (OVER) on the year.
Cleveland is quietly 7-1 in their last 8 and the over is
6-2-1 in that stretch. The parlay cashed 6 out of 8 times, and all seven of
Cleveland’s wins during the streak have covered the alternate run line (-2.5
runs.) Not to mention they’re playing Oakland. We all know about the A’s OVER run
which is 12-3 as of late.
AL BREAKDOWN 5-3-13
8.5 TWINS@CLE- Solid starting pitching (Hernandez 2.35, 1.17
in 15 innings) could be offset by CLE .321, 8.50 r/9 in L10 vs. LHP, and MIN
good history (Florimon Dozier Parmalee) against Masterson. 1st 5
over might be a play. Both bullpens are hot at the moment.
8 NYY @ OAK- Here we have a nice OVER vs. OVER situation- Combined
OVER of 9-1 in L5. OAK OVER of 24-5
on the season. The number has been at 8 or 8.5 in 9 of OAK L10, and in those
games the Over is 9-1. Tonight’s is set at 8. Though Sabathia has proven to
throw 8 quality innings on a regular basis, and Moss, Donaldson, and Cespedes are
a combined 1-18 against him, Sabathia has still given up 5 HR in his L2 starts.
AJ Griffin started the year with 3 straight gems but has now cooled (11 ER in
11 IP in L2.)
7.5 SEA @ TOR- Bluejays bullpen 6.75 L5. There’s usually one
top to bottom lopsided pitching match- up. M’s bullpen 2.50 L5 and Felix Hernandez is on fire. Romero
finished 2012 strong but is a complete question mark. Ackley, Bay and Montero all have an OPS over
1.000 against Romero. Morse seems to be back in stride as well.
9 BOS @ TEX- BOS is batting .282, 6.32 r/9 and TEX is batting .276, 4.50 vs. LHP in L10. OVER is 7-2-1 in BOS L10. Bullpen ERA
L10: BOS 5.54 and TEX 5.11. Beltre, Cruz and Kinsler have
had success against Dubront in a small sample size of 16 combined AB. For the
record, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsburry are a combined 7-33 with 1 HR vs.
7.5 KC @ CHW- It’s not much of a factor, however UNDER has
cashed in 7 straight meetings including 3 this year. OVER is 7-1-1 in KC L9. Bullpens:
CHW 6.12 and KC 1.36 in L10. Guthrie has pitched well however the pattern of ER
in April was 1-4-2-4-0-… fill in the blank. Axlerod has posted 3 straight QS. CHW current
line- up has 6 HR in 174 AB and is batting .201 vs. Guthrie in Career (Konerko
and Dunn are 11-64, 3 HR.) There’s a jam of conflicting info however, 7.5 still
seems low to me.
8 DET @ HOU- DET bullpen has finally logged some quality
innings (1.72 in L5 and 3.00 in L10,) however are coming off a 14 inning game
last night. HOU is batting .224, 3.28 in L10 vs RHP and Fister has pitched well
(2.38, 1.03 this year.) Parlaying Fister to win with the Over is
4-1 thus far. Parlaying HOU to lose
with the Over is 5-2-1 in L8 (7 games at NYY and BOS) Fielder is 5-19, 1HR
vs. Norris and Chris Carter is 2-5 1HR vs. Fister. There is very limited
history other than that.
8.5 BAL @ LAA- Vargas owns a 7.21 ERA in 16 IP at night. Both
pens have been shaky in L5 (BAL 4.91, LAA 6.10.) BAL vs. LHP .200, 2.41r/9 and
LAA vs. RHP .225, 3.42 r/9 in L10. Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters
are a combined 11-44, 0 HR, 2 RBI against Vargas.
Think Eli is still better than Peyton? What happend to punding the rock and utilizing play action? What happened to Coughlin? Brad Childress thought that was bad coaching. And dont tell me it's because of Plaxico Burress, it's not. The Eagles stomped you out because Eli Manning looks at his shoes during a quarterback sneak. As tough as that was to have home-field advantage, it's even tougher to throw a spiral. Have a good off season boys, I'm sure you'll be ready for weeks 1-10 next year.
PIT -110 @ Nashville- 1 unit
CHI -170 @COL- 3 units
PHI -160 vs MIN- 1 unit
FLA -5.5 -110 – 1 unit
LAC +900 @ SA - .20 units
DET +2 -110 @ DEN- 2 units
DET is 3-1 ATS on no rest, DEN is 5-5
DET is 6-2 ATS in L 6 @ DEN
DET 12-4 ATS in L 16 meetings
Today I noticed a couple of trends in the Giants at Braves game that should be taken note of.
In day games LHP Barry Zito is 1-6, with an 8.50 ERA, and 2.22 WHIP. The day/night splits aren’t always a lock, but I have a feeling this one is because it’s game 4 of a four-game series and Campillo needs to pitch well to even the series, instead of lose 3-1. Jorge Campillo is 4-1, 2.05 and 0.95 in day games, but has given up 17 ER in his last 23.2 IP. The Braves are 5-1 in game 4’s this year, and are 4-0 in game 4’s after a loss.
Zito actually pitched fairly well in his last start allowing two hits in the first 5 IP. The bullpen helped him surrender 5 earned runs in the 6th to provide him with his 15th loss.
The Braves are hitting .296 against LHP in their last 10 games and scoring 5.40 runs/9 innings.
Do you either:
A) Take the money line at poor value (-230) because you know the braves are going to win?
B) Bet on the run line (Braves -1.5 @ -120) because it’s better value?
C) Say screw the Braves, and take the (OVER 8.5 @ -110) because Campillo has given up 10 ER in his last 2 starts, and Barry Zito is 1-6 with an ERA over 8.00 in day games?
D) Take the Giants at +200?
E) Stay away all together?