K State, 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20, is in an interesting spot against Baylor tonight as all 9 of their losses have come against Top 25 opponents, including 7 in the top 15, whose combined record sits at 138-32. That’s a lot of games against top competition, which in theory should allow for cohesion and this team to get continuously stronger as the season progresses in a loaded Big 12. That being said, could this be considered a hangover spot coming off the big win against Oklahoma? Although the win against OK could possibly mean a jolt in confidence as well. Furthermore, State blew a first half double-digit lead not too long ago in Waco, losing 79-72 in 2OT, so there is a possible revenge factor. Baylor is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven, however 5 of the last 6 between these two have been decided by 3 or less in regulation, with two going into OT and Baylor is 4-0 in conference games decided by 5 or less this season.
Shields @ Dickey -120
- The Blue Jays have won 9 straight, KC has lost 7 of 9.
- James Shields is a good pitcher, and has been throughout his career, but Jose Bautista is 9 for 21/ 4HR, and Adam Lind is 13 for 51/ 5 HR against Shields. Lind is hitting .381/1.093 in 61 AB against RHP.
- TOR has the better bull pen over the last 5 (2.25/4.70.)
- Dickey has tossed 7 straight quality starts and is coming off an 8 IP, 5H, 2ER against Oakland.
- KC has hit .237, and scored 2.96 R/9 against RHP in their last 5.
- Steve Tolleson is hitting.375 at home, and leads the list of six Blue Jays not named Jose Bautista, who crack the top 50 in OPS-last 7 (Tolleson, Lind, Encarnacion, Pillar, Reyes, and Fransisco.)
- The OVER is 23-16 in Philly games, and 28-14 in Miami games.
- Eovaldi has a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts, and LHB have hit him better than RHB (.276/.231.) That should be good news for Rollins (homered in two straight,) Asche (7 for last 15 with 6 RBI,) and Howard, whose splits are better v/R (.252/.217,) and on the road (.278/.194.) Ruiz is 5 for 14 against Eovaldi.
- Kyle Kendrick is the 5th worst pitcher on the board against RHB (.292/.744/4.71.)
- MIA 1B Garret Jones is 11 for 24 with 1 HR and 6 RBI in his last 6 games, and prefers a RHP (.295/.205.) In his career he’s 4 for 12 with a homer against Kendrick. Casey McGhee prefers righties (.331/.152) and to be at home (.365/.227.) Giancarlo Stanton continues his MVP bid and prefers to be at home as well (.341/.284.)
BAL +100 @ PIT
- Wandy Rodriguez has a 6.84 ERA, and is the 3rd worst pitcher on the board this evening against RHB (.255/.780 OPS/4.57ERA in 290 PA.) Adam Jones is crushing LHP (.424/.236 v/R,) and is hitting .320 on the road. He’s 4 for 9 with 4 RBI in his last two games. Nelson Cruz also has favorable splits vs. LHP (.359/.246) and on the road (.313/.217.) JJ Hardy is a terrible baseball player, but is 6 for 23 with 2 HR against Wand-Rod.
- Chris Davis hit 3 HR last night and could be heating up a BAL team that has scored 15 runs in their last two, after scoring 2 or less in five of the previous seven.
- L 5 Pen ERA favors BAL (2.35/4.97,) as does L 5 SP ERA (2.48/6.14)
- C. Tillman has allowed only 6 ER over his last three starts, and is coming off a complete game domination of the Royals. He’s holding righties to .224/.681, which could offset McCutchen, and Marte, who has been hot recently.