although I've bet for years I do not do any real number crunching. I picked the pats before the end of the Indy win, but here is what I like
Better level of competition - per Sagrins ratings ne played the 6th best schedule and Seattle the 14th
Although Seatle has better yardage stats, the pats have the edge on scoring, allowing 3 more pts on offense, but scoring 5 more then Seattle. Per stat fox http://www.statfox.com/nfl/gamematchup.asp. I understand this is a razor thin margin, but to me tempers or eliminates seattles yardage stats.
The superior scoring of New England is likely due to seattles plodding style and the lack of offensive playmakers, while the pats have the games best tight end and a savy veteran qb, and coach. New England score on apx 63% of their red zone possessions v 52% for the pats http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
New England has the better coach and qb.
When I watch the pats they look more complete.
All that being said, I hate betting against the leagues best defense And best running game. It is typically a recipe for disaster (see Baltimore, Seattle, Giants, etc). In addition, the majority of solid cappers that I've seen are on Seattle. These two factors are making me nervous
I also posted this rambling mess in vanzac's space, but since it's as long a post as I've ever made, I figured I'd start a thread as well.
Seems high to me Sf, giants, Detroit and the bears At Seattle