Bucks - 2.5
1H -1.5
Bulls aren't good this season. Got talent on the perimeter but they cant get open looks very often and I've been fading them for a while now. The Bucks are on a losing streak so that definitely brought the line down to where it is. If anyone watched the Bulls during there horrific road trip last week, you'll know why I'm on the Bucks half and game. The Bucks have impressed me in games on the road without Bogut and Redd and I believe they are a more complete offensive squad. Jennings is in a slump but hes back home and I'll put my money on this (still) underrated Bucks team. Milwaukee is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Chicago
Dallas 1H -6
I can't take the Dallas Mavericks seriously right now. I'm playing this 1H only for the same reason I played Denver 1H last night, and that's because they aren't reliable to hold a big lead. Philly is coming off a b2b where they shot 39% and Dallas is home with 1 day of rest after getting shitted on in Cleveland on a b2b. Dallas is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Bulls @ Bucks UNDER 195
I just can't see this game being high scoring. Looking at the stats, they both have been allowing a lot of points and probably going over the total more times than not so I think the line here is much higher than it should be. Last time they played the total reached 160s and the Bulls rallied from 18 points down to win.
Lastly, for fun, MNF Patriots +1.5
I don't know why, all I know is that Lang is on the Saints. and usually thats all I need to know.
Went 18-11 last week (11/16 - 11/22). Pretty solid week, didn't make any threads but posted my plays in other threads. Anyway, my picks:
San Antonio - 9
I think San Antonio wins by double digits here despite my system having the Bucks cover. Without Bogut inside, San Antonio should win the rebounding battle and dominate the points in the paint. Include that with their high 3point FG% at home and you could have a rout. Jennings has given the Bucks one of the best ATS records this season, but the only respectable team they beat were the Nuggets. Also, after seeing how Parker and Hill played defensively against Gilbert, I don't see Jennings dropping more than 25 at most.
Chicago +8.5
The only thing that worries me about the Bulls is that they've been outscored in the paint in their last five games. That usually leads to the opposing team having a high FG% and open 3 point shooters, which can lead to a blowout (check Lakers and Nuggets). What doesn't worry me is the Trailblazers ability to score in the paint. They are a half court offensive team that only scores around 30-35 points in the paint. The Bulls are coming off two embarrassing performances at LA and Denver, and I expect them to come to Portland focused.
Chicago/Portland UNDER 181
I like the total to easily go under 181 here. I feel like Chicago is a team that would rather run with Derrick Rose's abilities, but somehow they average less possessions per game than Portland, who usually forces opponents to run a slower, half court game. The public really likes the over here, and it seems too fuckin easy to me. My system has the game's total at 175, and I think the system gave extra points based on the past few games Chicago has had and Portland's recent game at Golden State.
I have a heavy lean on the Milwaukee/San Antonio game at under 192.5, since the Bucks really haven't scored more than 87 on the road besides their lucky win at Memphis last week. and I'm waiting on the rest of the lines to comment on them.
A lot of people on covers seem to like the Blazers tomorrow, which leaves me some concern. Either way, the Blazers have a rebounding and big bench advantage. The Nuggets came back and beat the Jazz last night, but rookie Tywon Lawson played tremendous in the 4th quarter and without him, I'm not so sure they win. The Nuggets are stuck with Aaron Afflalo at SG, and don't expect Brandon Roy to have two subpar shooting nights in a row. The Blazers were also very good at home last year and the Nuggets were inconsistent on the road. I don't think 7 points is a great value for the Blazers because the Nuggets are a good team that's capable of winning this one, so I'll take the first two quarters and the half.
Spurs -3.5
Spurs 2Q -any
Spurs 1H -any
The Spurs are aging everyday, but they are finally 100% healthy. Ginobli, Duncan, and Parker look to challenge the Lakers in the Western Conference this year with the addition of Richard Jefferson. On the other side, the Bulls are back again with mostly the same faces, except for Jannero Pargo, who is very underrated but has to fight for time behind Hinrich and Rose (unless he plays as an undersized SG). The Bulls ended last season with a thrilling 7 game series against the Celtics and look to improve this year with a healthy Luol Deng, and John Salmons has looked good in preseason. The key to this game will be bench play, where the Spurs are stacked. Ginobli, Blair, Ratliff, Hill, Mason, and McDyess should dominate Hinrich, Pargo, Miller, Gibson, and the other role players for the Bulls.
posted ytd is (1-1), took yesterday off
GL
Is it because the Ravens haven't lost three games in a row in a long time?
Is it because the Vikings gave up huge yards to the Rams last week?
Is it another one of those stupid trends?
What the fuck?
I mean all the best cappers on this site are on the Ravens.
According to my math, the Ravens only have a 4.7 point advantage in AOPR.
Also, I capped the game using a couple different methods and one has the Vikings at -6.5 and the other has Vikings at -8
Yes the Ravens have a good defense, but so do the Vikings. IMHO, I think the cappers are all on the Vikings because of their performance last week, giving up 400 yards to the Rams.
Ravens are a good team, don't get me wrong... I just don't understand why so many people would put money on the Ravens
WOW. What a day for me. After gong 11-2 this week with a $3140 profit, I went 0-4 today losing $1760 with 3 bets on the USF game and 1 bet on the Dodger game. I have set high goals for tomorrow in NHL, MLB, and CFB aiming to win around $800-$2000.
With that being said, lets talk some Friday night CFB!
Here are some quick stats
| ATS | OU | OFF | DEF | |
Yards Per Point
| | | Head To Head
Pitt is 6-4 SU avg 30.4 ppg
Rutger is 6-4 ATS avg 21.5 ppg
Trends
Positive Trends for Rutgers
| Rutgers is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games | | Rutgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home | | Rutgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh | | Rutgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh |
Negative Trends for Rutgers
Rutgers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Positive Trends for Pitt
| Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games | | Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road | | Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road |
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Rutgers
Negative Trends for Pitt
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Rutgers
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers
Other Stats
Rutgers has a 22nd ranked defense allowing 16.4 ppg
Pitt has a 33rd ranked defense allowing 18.8 ppg
Rutgers has a 29th ranked offense scoring 31.8 ppg
Pitt has a 18th ranked offense scoring 34.8 ppg
Rutgers allows 65.2 yards on the ground
Pitt allows 109.5 yards on the ground
Rutgers allows 237.4 yards through the air
Pitt allows 226.3 yards through the air
Rutgers has completed 62 of 117 passes for 906 yards (4td, 3int)
Pitt has completed 105 of 157 passes for 1334 yards (14td, 3int
Rutgers has carried the ball 209 times for 915 yards (11td)
Pitt has carried the ball 199 times for 999 yards (12 td)
Average Opponent Power Rankings (did myself so could be off)
Rutgers 84.675
Pitt 85.222
My Predicted Score (Based on AOPR)
36-33 Rutgers
Doesn't look like Pitt has a good pass defense but Rutgers has a pretty balanced offensive attack with two decent running backs
the Rutgers run defense looks really good and Pitt has one designated running back that's a 5-8, 195 lbs freshman who is one of the best in the country so far this year
I think the question here is can Rutgers stop the Pitt run game? If not I see Pitt blowing this game out, they have too many weapons for the long ball
Does anyone know if who has the O-Line and D-Line advantage?
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