PORTLAND ST -7.....20* Play
Michigan St-2.5.........20* play
Memphis-11....10* Play
Wisconsin-Greenbay +3.....5* Play
Good Luck !!!!
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ Virginia Over 115: A
couple of weeks ago I had the Over (112.5) in this game on Virginia's
home floor and it was an easy winner as 126 points were scored in the
game. I expect another on in the 120's here. The Clemson Tigers are not a
great offensive team but they have been putting up some decent numbers
as they have averaged 67 ppg in their last 7 games overall and 68.4 ppg
in the ACC home games. Virginia has been tough at the defensive end all
year as they have allowed just 51.9 ppg overall, but on the road that
number jumps to 58.8 ppg, while in their last 3 ACC road games they have
allowed 62.7 ppg. This Clemson offense should be able to hit that on
thier home floor. Virginia has averaged 63.5 ppg overall and 62.9 ppg on
the road and they should be able to get their fair share of points vs a
Clemson team that has allowed 64.3 ppg in the ACC overall, including
64.8 ppg in their last 4 ACC games at home. Clemson's home games
have averaged 122.1 ppg overall, while their ACC home games have
averaged 132 ppg, with none of the 5 games putting up less than 126
points. Clemson's lowest scoring ACC game overall was 116 points at
Boston Collage, while the rest of them have all hit at least 126 points.
Virginia has been involved in much lower scoring ACC games as their
conference games have averaged just 113.1 ppg, but their ACC Road games
have averaged 116.8 ppg, while their road games overall have put up
121.7 ppg. Teams get virgini nto play at more their own pace on their
home floors and I expect Clemson to pick up the pace in this one as well
and get this game in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Georgia State -3.5 over JAMES MADISON: JMU
is just 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 home games and just v4-12 ATS in
their last 16 games overall. GSU has struggled on the road in the CAA,
but they have won their last 2 conference games away from home and are
taking on a bad Dukes squad tonight. The Dukes come in having won just 1
game in their last games and have lost their last 2 at home by 5+
points each. That one win? That was a road win at a 1-25 Townson team,
in a game where they blew a 15 point half time lead to win by just 2
points. Defense will be key in this one and GSU has a HUGE edge in that
aspect of the game. The Panthers come in allowing just 58.7 ppg overall
and 61.4 ppg on the road, plus in their last 5 games overall (regulation
only) they have allowed just 56.8 ppg. No way the Dukes can even come
close to numbers like that. JMU did allowed just 56 points to Townson
the other night, but in their previous 5 games they allowed 77.4 ppg,
while in their first game vs the Panthers they allowed 74 points.
Georgia State isn't a good offensive team, but they have averaged 64.8
ppg (reg only) in their last 4 CAA games they should be able to score
plenty on this defense tonight. The Dukes do have the slight offensive
edge, but they will just not be able to come up with enough stops to
keep this one close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against
homedogs or pick off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference
rival, playing only their 3rd game in a week. This play is 25-5 the last
5 seasons.
UNLV/ TCU Under 147: (Added) Write up to come and this will be a Google News Play.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas -2.5 over OKLAHOMA: Play
against home teams as an underdog or pick off a loss to a conference
rival as a favorite of 6 points or more. This play is 48-14 the last 5
seasons. despite coming off the Huge win over KSU, I still feel the
longhorns are the team here. They are playing better having won their
last 3 and even their recent losses vs top notch teams in the conference
have been close. The Sooners were pick near the bottom of the Big 12
and are playing like that team of late. Longhorns should pull away late
here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
William & Mary +17 over DREXEL:
Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points off a blowout win by 20
points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight
wins against conference rivals. This play is 44-14 since 1997.
Creighton/ Southern Illinois Under 141: (Added) S ILLINOIS is 21-8 UNDER versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game since 1997, while CREIGHTON is 16-4 UNDER after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
I'm glad this whole week wasn't Groundhog Week.
I'd hate to have to replay it over and over again. It has been bad and i
apologize to my followers, but I will bounce back.
I WILL BE BACK WITH MORE UPDATES LATER ON AND MY FULL CARD WILL BE UP BY 4PM.
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Montana State/ Northern Colorado Under 147.5: Montana
State did have a high scoring game in their last game vs Sacramento
State (162 points), but their previous 5 road games have all put up less
than 147 points, with an average of 131.2 ppg being scored over those
games. For Norther Colorado they have been involved in higher scoring
games at home than on the road as their home games have averaged 145.1
ppg, but in their last 3 at home games that number has dropped to 139.7
ppg. N. Colorado has allowed 75.2 ppg at home on the year, but the
Bobcats have only averaged 63.4 ppg on the road. The Bears have averaged
69.9 ppg at home on the year, but their scoring has been down a bit of
late as they have averaged just 65 ppg in their last 2 at home, while in
their last 4 overall they have averaged just 68.5 ppg and one of those
games went to OT. The Bobcats Big Sky games have averaged 143 ppg, with 1
OT game, while the Bears Big Sky games have put up 144 ppg, with 2 OT
games and both numbers put us under this total. The pace may be pushed
in this one a bit, but I feel that both teams will not be able to score
enough for this one to go over the Total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS
PLAY--- Play Under - in all games where the total is between 140 and
149.5 points in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74
PPG) if the road team has trailed their last 3 games by 5+ points at the
half. This play is 38-12 since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAY
Uconn +11 over SYRACUSE: Im
gonna look to the Huskies in this one. Despite all their recent
struggles they still are a very talented team, but now you can add
desperation to the mix as well. Thewy may not be scoring that much right
now, but the Cuse have still given up 62.4 ppg in their last 5 games
overall. The Orange are 16-0 at home on the year, but in their ;last 5
Big East home games they have just 1 win over 10 points (23 vs
Providence), while allowing 61.2 ppg over that stretch. We know the Cuse
can score (77.6 ppg) and that Uconn gave up 80 points in their last
game (Louisville), but this is still a team that has played excellent
defense of late as they have allowed just 58.8 ppg on 38.6 % shooting in
their last 5 games, while overall they are 4th in the nation in FG%
defense (37.1%). I expect that Uconn will lean on their defense more in
this game, while their offense puts up just enough points to keep this
one close. KEY TREND---SYRACUSE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.
5 POINT TEASER--- Missouri -1 & Louisville +8.5
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
MISSOURI -6 over Baylor:
The Bears are a re a very good team this year, but they have had
struggles with the top two teams in the Big 12. Baylor has been blown
out in their 2 games vs Kansas, while the last time these teams ment the
Tiger had a DD lead late, before Baylor made a comeback to lose by just
1. The Tigers speed beat the Bears height in the last meeting and it
will do so again. The Tigers are also the more experienced team and they
are playing on one of the toughest home courts in the nation. They may
win this one by DD.
1 UNIT PLAY
Miami +7 over FLORIDA STATE: Play on Underdogs
of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points
total in their last three games against opponent after beating the
spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games. This play is
29-6 the last 5 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
COUPLE MORE TO COME
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Orlando Under 182.5:
Defense is the key to this one and both teams have been playing
excellent at that end of the floor this year as the hawks have allowed
just 91.3 ppg, while the Magic have allowed just 91.6 ppg. On the road
the Hawks have been even stingier where they have allowed just 89.5 ppg
on 42% shooting, while in their last 3 away from home (regulation only),
they have allowed just 78.3 ppg. Orlando's offense has been getting it
going of late as they have put up 100 ppg in their last 5 games, but
they are coming off a huge game with Miami and there are internal
problems with Howard so this team might not be that focused at the
offensive end tonight. Atlanta has averaged just 9.3 ppg on the road,
while in their last 5 overall they have put up just 90.2 ppg. I expect
this to be a defensive struggled tonight as both teams have been
excellent at that end of the floor this year. This game should fall in
the 170's with ease.
Oklahoma City/ Utah Under 201: Google News Play. On
the surface it would look like a great over play as the Thunder's first
4 games on this trip have averaged 215.8 ppg, while Utah's last 5 games
have averaged 201 ppg, but as Lee Corso always says "Not so fast my
friend". This is the Thunder's 4th game in 5 days and their 2 time
playing in BB games over that stretch and that has to have an effect on
this team, especially when it comes to shooting the ball. Tired legs
wont help them score as much or play the uptempo game they are used to. .
What also won't help them score as much is the fact that Utah has
allowed just 92.9 ppg at home on the year. Utah has averaged 99 ppg at
home this year, but just 97.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and
while they will be playing a bad team< i don't expect them to hit
more thn 95 in this one as the pace of the game should be slowed down,
limiting the scoring chances of both teams. Judging by the numbers in
the first part of this write up the OU line should be higher, but it
stands at just 201. Hmmmm. Seems like someone wants us to take the Over
but Ill head the other way and expect a game in the low 190's.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Charlotte Under 182.5:
Talk about some tired legs. This will be Chicago's 8th straight on the
road, so their shooting legs may not be all there. The Bulls have
allowed just 87.7 ppg overall and 91.8 ppg on the road, while in their
last game they allowed just 67 points to New Orleans. Charlotte has
averaged just 87.2 ppg overall and 82.6 ppg in their last 5 games and
should really be held in check by Chicago tonight. I really don't expect
more than 80 from the Bobcats, while Chicago's tired legs should keep
them at best 95 points.
UTAH +1 over Oklahoma City:
I kinda like this play as well. OKC is playing their 4th game in 5 days
(all on the road), while Utah has had a couple days rest and they are
at home where they have gone a solid 11-4 on the year. This game should
be close till we hit the 4th quarter, where i expect the Jazz to pull
away from this tired team.
1 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT -2.5 over New Jersey:
New Jersey has lost 4 in a row, while Detroit has won 3 in a row,
including a win at NJ on Wednesday. Gonna go with the hotter team
playing at home.
Just a Horrible week(2-4 last night-9.2 units). But we press on and try and fight through this. The way I have played this week i understand if you have faded me, but hopefully your still with me.
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Loyola- Maryland/ Iona Under 142.5:
Yes I know the pace in which the Gaels play at but the majority of
their high scoring games are vs teams with poor defenses and at home.
Last time on the road the Gaels played Manhattan and there were 158
points scored, but in looking at their previous 3 road contests there
was and average of 121.3 ppg scored. Those three teams (St. Peter's,
Siena and Fairfield) were all respectable on defense, allowing 68 ppg or
less. Now they get to face a Greyhound team that is 73rd in points
allowed at 62.8 ppg, while they have also allowed just 58.9 ppg in
conference play and just 53.2 ppg during their 6 games win streak. Iona
has scored 77.8 ppg on the road, but none of those teams played have
been locked in defensively as this Greyhound squad is right now. Because
of their pace Iona has allowed 72.2 ppg overall and 68.8 ppg on the
road, but they have played better in the MAAC, where they have allowed
just 65.4 ppg overall and 65.2 ppg in their last 5. Loyola has averaged
68.8 ppg in MAAC play and 69.3 ppg at home, but they have not hit more
than 70 points in each of their last 8 games. I don't think they will
here either as they will not look to run with the Gaels here as they
will try and frustrate them with a slower pace and great defense. I
don't expect the Greyhounds to keep them below 60 points like each of
their last 6 opponents, but just like Loyola, I do not expect the Gaels
to hit 70+ points here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play
Under in all games where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points if a
team (LOYOLA-MD) is off 4 straight wins by 10 points or more vs an
opponent that played 2 straight games with a combined score of 155
points or more. This play is 36-11 since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAY
Dartmouth/ Princeton Over 118.5:
The Princeton Tigers have played higher scoring games than normal for
them this year as their games have averaged 126.8 ppg overall, while
their conference games have averaged 129.4 ppg. One reason for the
higher scoring games is their defense, which has struggled in the Ivy
league, allowing 65.6 ppg. Dartmouth has not scored well in the Ivy
league, where they have averaged just 52.8 ppg and that is mainly due to
their two games vs Harvard, in which they averaged just 42.5 ppg, but
in their last 4 Ivy games their average has gone up to 58 ppg. Gotta
believe they should be able to hit at least that number vs this less
than stellar Princeton defense. The Tiger on offense are not spectacular
as they have averaged 63.3 ppg overall and 63.8 ppg in Ivy play and
they will be taking on a Dartmouth team that has allowed 62.8 ppg in the
league. I believe that Princeton should be able to hit at least 62 in
this one. Neither team is a scoring machine, but there are enough
deficiencies at the defensive end for this game to comfortable hit
120+.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Brown +10.5 over COLUMBIA:
Brown is not playing well as they have lost each of their last 3 games
by 11 points or more, but each one of Columbia's 6 Ivy games have been
decided by 5 points or less. I feel Brown can keep it close here.
1 UNIT PLAY
WRIGHT STATE -3 over Wisc-Green Bay: Play on a favorite
that is a bad offensive team (<=63 PPG) after a combined score of
125 points or less 3 straight games vs a good defensive team (63-67
PPG). This play is 34-13 the last 5 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE