Damn those exhibition games in London. I was talked out of this game and went with Jax and jax Over instead - oops. Luckily Giants and Under bailed me out.
NyBretts @ Beefalo -5.5, 42
Battle royale for the AFC East with the in state rivalry. Buffalo has been stellar with fast strong defense, solid special teams, awesome receivers and a young winning QB. THe Jets have the legend "Father Time" who loves to make as many touchdowns as interceptions. High on charisma and media hype this team has a shot against any team in their division. I expect this to be a good battle with turnovers leading to touchdowns. Everyone has been riding the Bills bandwagon and finally got burned last week in Miami. I expect them to come out firing at the start of this home game and I expect the Jets to try to keep pace by throwing the ball all over the place causing interceptions and deep receptions/touchdowns. The Bills have also been turning the ball over a lot by fumbling in the last three games. The early sharps seem to think that the Jets can keep up with the points the Bills are going to shell out, because the line has moved off of the key number -6 in favor of the Jets even though the pubic % of bets are on the Bills. THis reverse line movement early leads me to believe that this game will go OVER the 42 and the Jets may cover or win straight up.
Over 42 (NYJ 33 Buffalo 27)
Jax @ Cin +8, 39.5
I am biased because I constantly make money on the Jax Over, save last week (they had their chances and should have covered the over). I think that the jax defense in overrated and the offense in underrated. With the spread being 25% of the total leads me to believe the oddsmakers expect the Bungles to get maybe two touchdowns. Hopefully they keep up their end on the game, because you know the Jags are hungary for a win and want to take out their frustrations on this winless team. They are good for at least 4 touchdowns (26-28 points). Bring it Ocho-cinco, and push this game OVER 39.5 (jax 28 cin 17)
More to come.
As always please share your thoughts.
Last week 4-0, total record 4-0
SD @ london v. NO +3, 46
I like the UNDER in England.
I understand what you are saying and thinking, the NFL wants a shootout to get fans exited...
I saw the same posts last year with Giants and Fins, SHOOTOUT was the word of the day.
UNDER for three reasons.
1- Both of these teams must win. Defense wins ball games. NFL agenda aside, the team agenda and the owners agenda is to make the playoffs. NO is in the bottom of the tough NFC South (2 games back), while SD is a game back of Denver in a softer conference, they still have a tough schedule (@Pit, Ind, Atl, @ Tampa, Den). Already lost 4 and can't go 8-8 with little chance of a wild card.
2- Soccer pitches suck as football fields. The English have a different kind of grass that doesn't hold up to the size/weight/cleat of the average NFL layer, much less the linemen. It is going to rain.... its England. NO likes turf and dome while SD is from....you know.
3- Europeans are used to "football" being a low scoring affair (2-0, 2-1, 4-2 whoa a blowout) Look for a game with well mixed plays favoring the ground and some turnovers. Look for the teams to exploit the others weakness, both are weak against the run (100+ y/g). NO has a slight advantage defending the pass only allowing their opponents 55% pass completion. Both teams like to give the ball away NO-13 SD-10. And no Reggie who is worth at least three points on the total.
If you like the over you should wait till right before the game. The early sharps hit the under dropping it from 46-45 in places. I expect this trend to continue.
I like the UNDER myself. Good luck guys
Ari +4 @ CAR 43
Everybody likes the Panthers at home after the ass-kicking they handed ATL, TB, CHI and more recently NO. 64% of bets/picks are on CAR but the line has moved a half point toward CAR indicating some $$$ on ARI. This leads me to believe that this game will probably not be a rout and if both teams who are starting to click: CAR off a division rivalry blowout; and ARI of two great home stands (Buffalo and Dallas OT) and most recently a bye week to get back Boldin, there is a potential for some points. I am aware that the west doesn't come out to the east and play well in the early games so Carolina will probably cover, but I would keep an eye on the line movement.
More to come, and as always please share your thoughts.
Oak +9 @ Balt, 36
This game should be a defensive struggle, however a classic Jeckle and Hyde may appear. New HC CAble has ahd a few games to shape up this team and I expect the offense to finally start scoring. We all know that Flacco can score especially against overrated defenses. Both of these defenses are overrated and sloppy. The early money moved the line up from 35 to 36. I still think this is enough under the key numbers 38 and 40. Oak will probalbly cover do to the fact that 77% of public/bets are on Baltimore. Over is 9-2 in BAL last 11 games on grass. Over is 9-3 in BAL last 12 vs. AFC. Over is 7-3 in OAK last 10 games on grass.
OVER 36 (Oak 16 - Balt 24)
Buf -1 @ MIA 42
THis is a line that is off. Heavy money and percentage of bets are on Buffalo but the number has not budged and even moved to pick'em on one book. This resembles the Oak/nyj game last week and the buf/ari two weeks before. Reverse line movement has me wondering if this game won't also stay close, being one by a field goal late in the game. I think it is another field postition game. Weather is showing 60% chance of rain and some mild wind (NE 8mph). The wild cat offense is loosing its luster and BUF got back some key defensive players.
UNDER 42 (buf 17 mia 19)
TB/Dal UNDER 41
Stl/NE OVER 43
CLe/jax OVER 42
NYG/PIT UNDER 42
Thought I would start a new thread on the topic of totals. These are a few of my thoughts. Feedback is always appreciated.
Min @ Chi -3, 37.5
Historically these are two defensive minded division rivals. As of late CHI-TOWN's D has been looking a little on the aged side and overrated the past few years. Contrarily, Chicago's offense is finally clicking under Orton. The special teams are due for a few runbacks (go Hester). Minny has a good defense especially in the middle on that line. The special teams are also under-rated as is the offense who finally has a QB with good estixperience. The public and "money" has pushed the line down from 39. I do not think it will go much lower and it might rise right before kickoff.
Over 37.5 (I would guess Min 27- CHI 24 in an overtime win)
Ind @ GB +1, 47
Peyton has played his 4 pre-season games in the first regular season. He is now finally back in rhythm with the game and his team mates. After that come back against HOU and the blow out last week at Balt, the team can handle one more road team. Rodgers continues to play beyond expectation even while injured. Grant is a beast and the Indy rush defense is still suspect even after a showing last week. Lots of holes = lots of scores. The money/public has moved the line down one point. This will probably be a nailbitter with a score in the last two minutes to push it over and win the game.
Over 47 (i would guess Ind 27 GB 23)
Sea @ TB -10.5, 38
Seattle sucks. Injuries have taken all the scoring away. Teams traveling to play on the east coast early in the morning usually do not fair well. TB plays good Defense. The team is running out of QB's so it behooves them to play conservative against the posh SEA team. Both teams are looking to play the clock. UNDER has been the last 5 meetings between these teams. Sunday night seems to frequent the UNDER this year. The public/money has pushed the line down a point from 39. They are in the right direction.
Under 38 (i would guess Sea 13 TB 23-24) this will be close and is my least favorite.
Ten/KC Under 35
SD/Buf Over 44
Any thoughts are appreciated.
Good luck tomorrow!