I noticed one of these weeks last year and it happens often in college.
There are quite a few 9-11 pt lines this week. 8 to be exact
Buff @ Jax -9 NO -11.5 @ TB
Pitt @ KC -10 Ari -9 @ Stl
Sea @ Min -10.5 NYJ @ NE -10.5
Was @ Dal -11 Cin -9.5 @ Oak
Which says to me that vegas is trying to entice additional 10 point teaser action from the amateurs like myself. Having been caught in this before, it seems clear to me that we ( I ) need to figure out which one or two of these teams aren't going to win. There is no way vegas lets us below average bettors have our free pick of any combination of of these 8. There would be some 50+ combinations that would cash if all these teams were shoe-in to just win the game.
Soo Someones Gonna Lose. Whos it gonna be?
I think this is prally a good strategy to figure out a number of key things about the lines this week. It'll tell us whos valued in on the dog ML. Whos a great double digit dog bet. KC maybe?
This proved to be prudent last year when I started this topic in the forum during a similar week.
Dont misunderstand my intentions here by the title of this post. Covers Community is virtually invaluable and prally the best tool handicappers have had since the dawn of this numbers scheme called betting.
My point is that these posts on this larger generic forums are completely useless. Just a bunch of knuckle heads touting their cards for the weekend and people saying good luck, or no i disagree or yes i agree. It just seems like a waste of time.
You'll notice that none of the same people post in the actual game threads that post in this forum, take a look, its true. The game threads are often insightful and add perspective as long as you know which offerings of information to take with a grain of salt . Generally they are somewhat reliable for releiving some of the intricasies of these specific games. Often locals chime in this insider information that is valuable. People discuss the weather and coaching choices. Not, "lets bet against (a inaccurate) public heavy lean" talk all over the place without a shread of backing it up. Both sides of the "ball" are discussed, and the #1 rule of gambling is "if you cant acknowledge reasons for each team covering the spread (dog or fav, home or away, conference or out) then you are not able to accurately handicap a game, and shouldnt be betting."
These are the reasons that Covers is a valuable asset to us GridIron Warriors. There is no value added from these lengthy forum where everyone just wants to write something and see little animated smile faces signify different forms of approval or rejection.
If you have something worth writing about, bring it to the game threads.
If you are looking for useful information, dont bother looking at the general sports forum.
Im just glad that the inciteful members of this community relegate themselves to the game threads, and those that choose to write in these forums, dont water down our game threads
Granted this shit is anyones guess, so i wish each of you luck each time you wager.
so tempted to take the Lou ML +210 tomorrow
and yet i dont know that i even love them ATS
just don't want to lay -250 on UNC
I guess thats the point though huh
for some reason the thing that stands out to me is UNC beating Arkansas by 31, i just feel like Lou wouldn't necessaryily beat ARK by more than 15,
that leads me to beleive that UNC will likely have at least a 3 or 4 point lead around the 2minute mark which means Hansborough taking and hitting FT's and getting the cover,
The key being that I beleive UNC will likely have the type of lead where their opportunity to cover is better than Louvilles'
UNC by 7, at least
I like the under too, although the high number makes me think thats a sucker bet, its gonna be very close to the 154.5