Baseball season is in swing now and it is ALWAYS my favorite time of the betting year. The value in baseball is the best. I have been around sports betting for MANY years and it is really tough to find a capper that understands that value. That is not to say it's a fun hobby for most of us, but good, hard working cappers can find real value betting baseball. If you primarily bet on favorites and the better team during baseball season, you may not want to read on...I never lay juice beyond -110 in baseball.
Over the past decade and a half, I have learned from some great professionals in Las Vegas. The first tidbit I picked up very quickly during my three years living in Vegas was that betting favorites in baseball is a death wish (and betting faves in almost any sport over the long haul is not a good practice). Baseball is so day to day and to lay huge juice on even a much better team makes it very tough to post a profit throughout a season. Instead look for underdog value. There are several factors I will share as I continue to contribute to this blog - but taking into consideration travel, home underdogs, and trends, (Dodgers have inconsistent pitching and with Manny in line up were over the number 13 out of the first 17 games this year. In another example, the Angels last season has a horrific bullpen, but mashed the ball. They went over the number during one stretch 18 our of 20 games) there are always some excellent plus odds games to wager on. Joe Public loves favorites, and books know this. Especially those favorites with big names - Yankees, BoSox, Phillies, Dodgers. The books don't give a damn who wins the game - they want balanced action on both sides. They do not set the line according to who they think will win the game. Manipulating that number is vital, and the public just loves betting the better team.
Anyway, if anyone is interested in joining me to let the "dogs do the work" for the rest of this baseball season, let me know. No gimics, no service, just hard capping and lots of analysis. I have posted a profit in 8 of the last 10 baseball seasons. I do not like any picks today, 5/10/10, but will begin posting here when I find a line that is off - according to my work.
Good luck everyone. Hope to meet some good cappers on here soon.
Hello fellow sports wagerers,
Well here we are right on the cusp of another college football and NFL season. I am busy once again ranking teams and getting ready for what I hope will be another winning football season. I spent almost two years in Vegas (several years back) as a "Shopper" looking for the best lines on games that a professional betting group was looking to bet on any given Saturday or Sunday. The group won and did quite well the two seasons I was there (and also did pretty well on baseball those two years too.)
I am an honest sportsbook player. I love all the touts that talk about these insane winning percentages, the too good to be true kind of things you hear on radio advertisements or read online. Truth is, I am looking to be in the high 50%'s, and as close to 60% this football season as possible. That is extremely difficult to do, but I did it both years with that betting group I worked with.
I am interested in sharing what I have learned and made my own these past several years and am looking for some other cappers to work on statistics with me to maximize profits and look for an even greater edge then we may have had doing this alone.
I will be in Vegas every Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this season and also have 2 guys who I work with who live there year-round. Add me as a friend, or drop me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org is anybody is interested in talking more about systems and the one I will be employing this football season.
The best of luck to everyone.
I am relatively new to this site, but have been sports betting since about 2003. I took a few years off but am back on since November of 2008. I read several blogs everyday and also read the main board where people post their picks and also often rip on one another. I am very uninterested in that type of crap and instead and more interested in trying to make some money.
I feel baseball can be very profitable due to the value in underdogs. To be able to grab a very solid pitcher at +120 or +130 or even sometimes +150 odds is very tempting. I do not believe or understand how so many people who post picks take HUGE favorites in baseball. It has been my experience that is is almost impossible to win over the long haul consistently betting favorites.
To break even betting an average of -150 favorites in baseball, you need to nail 60%... just to break even. I think it is worth a cappers time to focus on statistics that might favor underdogs. I have been looking for two or three other cappers to work with this year where we could combine systems, chat each morning, and try and come up with consensus picks..... plus eliminate picks that may not be so good upon closer evaluation.
The other area where I have had success in the past is riding a hot team in over/under baseball bets. Four years ago, they Dodgers has a great staff but could not score a run to save their lives. They were UNDER on over 60% of the games for the year and on Sundays, they were something like 20-4-2 on UNDERS... there was just this crazy statistical UNDER run. I ended up almost exclusively better Dodger game UNDERS that year.
This year I am on their OVERS. They have an incredibly suspect pitching staff with the exception of Billingsly. No way Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw pitch this well for the year. This is a team that will give up plenty of runs. Their offense in my opinion is as good as ANY not just in the National League, but in baseball. You obviously have Manny, but then have three great young bats in Ethier, Loney, and Kemp. Hudson looks like his wrist is fine, Furcal is solid, and Martin has not even begun to hit yet. If his bat gets going, which it will, and Loney begins stroking for even a little power, you have a monster offense. Casey Blake as your 8 hitter? He is gonna hit 23-27 home runs from your 8 spot. In the National League, the Books can only go so high with the run line. Take away that first series in San Diego when Manny was just getting his reps in (they went UNDER four games early on), and the Dodgers OVER is pretty solid statistically. I look for this to continue.
Anyway, if anyone is interested in working more with me, please let me know. I spend MANY hours each day crunching statistics and have some more opinions on betting baseball and WINNING.
Good luck to everyone.