I'm not sure if it's the East Coast bias, Crosby & Malkin's playoff performance so far, or the Lidstrom/Datsyuk injuries, but for some reason everyone and their dog seems to think that this is the year the will Pens go all the way and win the Stanley Cup.
I just have one question...why?
There's no question that Pittsburgh are playing at a higher level then last year, but have you seen Detroit this spring? They demolished an upstart Columbus squad in a tough building, outlasted an experienced Anaheim team that nobody wanted to play, then completely shut down the confident Blackhawks with ease. As a Canucks fan I can only say that I'm happy we didn't have to succomb to the red and white.
I'm well aware of the bad Hossa karma and comparisons to the early-80's Oilers team that beat the Islanders in the Cup final rematch, but there's just no way that Pittsburgh can beat the Wings. Detroit are too skilled, too deep, too experienced and too disciplined to not repeat as champs.
I think it will be a competitive series that goes 5 or 6 games, but the West has been the superior conference all year and the Wings are the cream of the crop. Although the series futures are intriguing, I really like Detroit to come hard out of the gates and take control from Game 1 on, so go with the Wings PL on Saturday (currently +170 at
Sports Interaction).
"If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense"
The Mayor
If you regularly read my space then you know by now that I tend to bet with my heart instead of my head. Often times I try to convince myself that my teams are as good as I think they are, when really they're above average at best, and then I make picks that end up being a double whammy of watching my teams lose and my wallet diminish.
Now that the Canucks have gone golfing for the summer it's time to refocus on the most important thing, making money. So I'm taking the blinders off and warning all Canadian baseball fans to do the same, because it's just a matter of time before the beloved Blue Jays come crashing back to earth.
It's been a nice start for Toronto and a feelgood story for all the Cito Gaston supporters (and there are many) but let's be honest, this team has been overachieving since the start and there's nowhere to go but down.
Will they finish with the worst record in the American League like I predicted before the season? Probably not (although there's still time). But unless your name is Roy Halladay then there's a lot to be desired from the group of castoffs they call a pitching staff. Are we really supposed to believe that Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, Ricky Romero and others are supposed to take this team to the promised land? Um, no.
Throw in their cakewalk schedule (played the Yanks three times, Sox once, and haven't played Tampa) and the fact that teams will learn to pitch to Lind & Snider, and you can expect the losses to start piling up.
So start fading the Jays because the honeymoon is over. You can begin by taking the Red Sox tonight (
+150 at Sports Interaction) and watch the winnings pile up.
If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense
The Mayor
You gotta love the NHL Playoffs...the endless overtimes, playoff beards, and guys damn near killing themselves in an attempt to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. Without question though one of my favorite things about the playoffs are the number of bandwagon jumpers that emerge from the ruins each year.
I can count on one hand the number of Blackhawks' fans that I knew before the playoffs started, but now that they are on the verge of advancing to the Conference Finals everyone I know is a Hawks' supporter. From what I'm told Dustin Byfuglien is the second coming of Cam Neely, even though he had one lousy goal in the playoffs up until Game 5. Never mind the fact that nobody can pronounce his name.
I've watched every second of the series to date I'll admit that the young Hawks are exciting to watch and will be a force down the road, but let's not plan the parade just yet. Despite the huge shot discrepency in the series one could make the argument that the Canucks have outplayed the Blackhawks to date.
Yes, Vancouver were steamrolled in the 3rd period of Game 1 and all of Game 2, but they got back to their defensive style on the road, played two near-perfect games in Chicago and were 2:40 seconds away from a 3-1 lead in the series.
Now that their backs are against the wall I expect the team to come out desperate tonight and get the series back to Vancouver. Luongo is 6-2 on the road in his last 8 starts with a GAA of under 2. When you throw in the fact that the Sedins/Sundin are playing for contracts and the team is one loss away from blowing things up, expect a big win from the boys in blue.
It would also help if the referees could award them more then one power play tonight. I'm not saying that the penalties to Vancouver at the end of Game 5 weren't deserved, but it's starting to get a bit ridiculous.
"If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense"
The Mayor
I've been going through major withdrawal since last Sunday waiting for the Madness to start up again, but since we're only hours from what I think will be the best weekend of College Basketball this year, it's time to weigh on tonight's matchups.
Most people know that I'm a loyal Duke supporter and it's amazing how many times I've heard that Villanova are going to walk over the Dukies tonight, which is absolutely insane. I know that number 1 rule of sports gambling is not to bet on your own team, but the fact that Duke are -2 (at
Sports Interaction) is reason to open up the wallets tonight.
Consider the following three factors when trying to talk yourself into the Wildcats tonight
- Villanova has no size or depth - Yes they have a nice backcourt but everyone knows that to beat Duke you pound them to death inside. With no inside threat you're basically convinced the Reynolds and Dante Cunningham are going to outplay Henderson, Singler and Scheyer, all while being locked down by Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith
- They're not in Philly anymore - Outside of the win at Syracuse (and let's be honest, Cleveland St. won at Syracuse) find me a quality road win on Villanova's schedule. Even though the crowd will be pulling for them, this isn't the Wachovia Center and when they look across the court and see "Duke" across the chest, the nerves will start to rattle. Remember when Xavier played Duke on national TV and were down 18-1 three minutes into the game? You've been warned.
- The coaching matchup - Coach K vs. Jay Wright. Come on. This is a guy that had to sweat it out against American in his own building. He can't trade X's and O's with the greatest of all time. If you're a believer in fate you'll know that the gold medal and the NCAA Championship could be the greatest coaching season in history. And it's going to happen.
Add it all up and Villanova will be lucky to keep it within 10 tonight
Other matchups I REALLY like..
Purdue +7 over UConn
Missouri +5 over Memphis
I actually like both dogs to win outright, so you may want to consider the ML
"If it don't make dollars, it don't make cents"
The Mayor
If the end of Friday's games are any indication then we're in for a treat in the second round. Even though the ACC failed to live up to expectations (I still don't know how FSU crashed and burned) I was able to win some cash on the Dayton and Cleveland St. ML's, along with a number of solid second half bets.
Now that the mid-major pretenders have been sent packing we should see some fantastic ball in Round 2, including a number of tasty dishes on the menu for today.
First of all, I love Maryland today (+9.5 at
Sports Interaction) even though they looked a little too good against an overrated Cal team and Memphis are due for a bounce-back game. I actually think they can win this game outright (ML is +400) because you rarely see teams make a run to the Final Four in back-to-back years (especially when they lose their best players). Memphis will go down today or against Mizzou in the Sweet 16, but the Terps definately cover the points today.
I also like Purdue +1.5 on the road (everything went right for Washington on Thursday) and I can't believe that Western Kentucky are 11 point dogs when they are basically a mirror image of Gonzaga. Take the Hilltoppers.
Finally, I see Texas hanging around for 30 minutes but Duke's pressure defense will be too much in the end. I'm taking the Blue Devils -7.5 because they are due.
"If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense"
The Mayor