Last night was my first post for this season and I went Miami. So I'm 1-0 on the season.
There are multiple reasons why I like Fresno State here:
- The most intriguing factor to me is that this line started at Boise St -10. 70% of the public is on Boise State -10. Why is the line now -7 and -7.5 at some places? Shouldn't the line move the other way if all that money is coming on Boise St? In my opinion, Vegas is trying to sucker every person out there who remembers the Boise State of years back and who remembers the 61-10 butt whooping Boise St put on Fresno St last year.
- Boise State lost 6 of their front 7 on their defense for 2009. Yes they might have beaten Oregon but I think that has a lot to do with the option offense and just playing assignment defense. They had a team that was one dimensional and they handled their business, it wasn't a blow out victory. Their second game was against Miami Ohio, all I'm saying is that 48-0 victory is only going to give them a false sense of accomplishment. This team is about to finally play its first real opponent.
- Fresno State has 2 solid RB. Both capable of taking it to the house at any time. Against a new front 7, this is going to be a lot of fun for them.
- Fresno State wins the special teams factor. They have the nations 4th ranked player for kickoff returns, Fresno St should have good starting field position throughout the game.
- Fresno State has a coach that has them screaming "anyone, anywhere" and lucky for them that anyone is a team that embarrassed them last year 61-10 and that anywhere is HOME FIELD. Also this is Boise States first game away from home aka the smurf turf.
My pick for tonight is
Fresno State +7.5As always best of luck to everyone and any feedback to help me make a smarter decision is much appreciated!
Here are the facts we all know:
- Georgia Tech runs the option.
- Last year Georgia Tech ran for over 400yrds on Miami.
- Georgia Tech is 2-0 and well rested.
- Every statistical indicator trends towards Georgia Tech.
but here is some information I think we are all forgetting:
- Georgia Tech has yet to play on the road.
- They are a run first team, the weakness in Miami's defense is their secondary, GT can not exploit this weakness. When a team becomes one dimensional, it does not fare well for that team.
- Miami's run defense is much improved, they only gave up 109 yards to a balanced Florida State offense.
- Did anyone see the game against Clemson. GT scored on a a fake fg and stupid coaching call by Clemson to act like they were going to go for it on 4th and then punt.
Bottom line is that Miami is a well balanced team that is playing at HOME for the first time this year. For you all to tell me that the more experienced and older Miami team is not going to come out with a bang at home is just crazy. I think Miami rolls.
Miami -5