Here is my 2011 NFL Future Bets. It’s
the first time I’m doing this, I’ve been betting on football, hockey and MMA for
2 years now without really keeping any record of win/lose and units won or
lost. I have been studying every team schedule and end it up with a W/L record
for every single team. This is really a hobby for me as college student and just
wanted to give you my thoughts for this season. Gotta say that I am a big Eagles fan, just in
case you didn’t notice...
All of my bets are from Bet365 and I punched them on August 7th
The 2 Texans bets has been punched on September 6th
Wins total:
U 8 Wins Kansas City 30$ @ 1.66
Last year, the Chiefs were probably the
surprise of the year with their 10-6 record winning their division. I do not think they will repeat this year,
they played over their head all season long. Matt Cassel seems to have some problem
with his shoulder and Jamaal Charles cannot win 8 games by himself. They
probably have one of the worst HC in the NFL and the lost of Charlie Weis will
hurt the team too. They made some great additions by acquiring Leron Mcclain,
Steve Breaston (if he stays healthy) and Gaither but Shaun Smith and Mike Vrabel
are though losses though. I think they will lose 4 of their first 5 games before
going into the bye week (only see them winning against the Bills and maybe vs.
the Vikings). I do not think they will
be able to recover from a 1-4 start. Also, from Week 11 to week 15, they will
be playing NE, PIT, CHI, NYJ and GB; all of those teams will be playing their
ass off to improve their record for a spot in the playoffs. They have the 6th
toughest schedule in the league entering the 2011 schedule. Predicted record:
5-11
U 7 wins Oakland 30$
@ 1,74
Last year, the Raiders finished the season 8-8,
but the statistic that impresses me the most is that they had a 6-0 record
inside their division. I see them winning 3 games maximum inside the division
(losing 2 to SD and losing 1 against KC and DEN) which makes them 2-4. I see
them losing against NYJ, NE, HOU, MIN, DET and CHI which makes them 6-10 for
the season and it may be worst. Kevin Boss is their only big acquisition in the
offseason but they lost Zach Miller and...Nnamdi Asomugha, their defence will
look terrible against teams I mentioned earlier, they also have a new coach and
OC and a lot of question marks under the QB position (Trent Edwards) and how well
will McFadden play this year, their OL is terrible. It will take some time for
this team to get competitive again and unless Al Davis decides to leave, the
Raiders are just going nowhere... Predicted record: 6-10 (and I’m generous)
U 6 Wins Washington 25$ @ 1.90
I don’t know how the books can put the O/U at 6
wins, I would have seriously open the line at 5,5 and maybe 5. They had a 6-10
record last year and their roster is not getting any better this year. The
Redskins have lost some key players in Donovan McNabb, an unmotivated Albert
Haynesworth, Vonnie Holliday, Andre Carter and Carlos Rogers. I don’t think guys
like Gaffney and Stallworth and Moss will have big impact this year compared to
last year considering the QB position that changed drastically. Tim Hightower
must have a big season if this team want to win 4-5 games because with Rex
Grossman and a young Kellen Clemens, they won’t be able to pass the ball as
well as last year. Seriously, I see them winning probably one game at home
agains either DAL or NYG but not more and for the rest of their schedule, I
would give them a win against CAR and BUF or SF...If the line was Under 5, I
would have probably bet it. Predicted record: 3-13
U 6 Wins Cincinnati 25$ @ 2,00
When I saw the line opened at O/U 7,5 in Vegas
Books, I was like OMG this line will get pounded, unfortunately it did...Like
the Redskins, the Bengals have worsen their team compared to last year with a
record of 4-12, They will be playing 2 playoff teams 2 times in BAL and PIT
(0-4) and they may win one game against CLE which makes them 1-5 in the
division. Other than that, they may win against BUF and JAX but that’s all. For
this bet to lose they have to have a 7-9 record which is almost impossible and
if ever they put up 6 wins we get our money back and I would be really
surprised if they get 5 wins, 1 more than last year. Sure AJ Green will have a
good impact but like the Skins situation, they have absolutely nothing to give
in the air, no more Chad, Carson Palmer doesn’t want to play anymore and
Gradkowski won’t save the season. Don’t forgive the lost of their best CB in
Jonathan Joseph but they replaced him by Nate Clements. Enough said, this team
is going nowhere and the write-up was just a waste of time because probably
nobody will disagree with this pick. Predicted record: 2-14
O 8 Wins Houston 30$ @ 1.47 (punched the bet on September 6th)
What makes me confirmed this bet is that Peyton
Manning is almost officially out for Week 1 against the Texans. I see the
Texans have a great season this year, the addition of Wade Phillips is huge for
this organisation (probably the best this year for HOU). I am a little worried
about the departure of Vontae Leach who paved the way for Foster last year, I
hope it won’t have a big impact in Foster’s numbers this year. Matt Schaub
still has his big weapons. CB Joseph is a big acquisition for their defensive
corps and they have not lost any big name. You might be a little surprise but I
see them winning 10 games this year (4-2 in the division) maybe 11 because I
saw them losing one vs. Indy but now they may win both. I see them losing
against NO, PIT, BAL and ATL. Predicted
record : 10-6
O 10 Wins New Orleans 25$ @ 1.90
The Saints had a 10-6 record last year and
which I think they will improve this year. The addition of Mark Ingram has been
a revelation for me, I didn’t think this guy was going to have that much
success in the preseason. He is a great running back who is going to give a lot
of pressure of Drew Brees back. Veteran
Darren Sproles is still relevant and will help the young Ingram in his
progression. They have enforced their defensive line by bringing Shaun Rogers
and Aubrayo Franklin. We all know that
Brees played throughout an injury last year and by being eliminated early
against the Seahawks, that sure helped him recovering form that injury. If
Jonathan Vilma is able to rebound, this is going to good for this weak LB corps.
Their first game vs. GB, I see the Saints winning 4 out of 6 in the division (1
lost to TB and ATL). I see them losing to GB in their first game and IND. They
might have though matchup against HOU and STL but I still see them winning.
Predicted record : 12-4
Division Winners:
NE/GB (Division Winners) 25$ @ 2.39 =
59.00$
Not much to say about this, I am pretty much
confident with these 2 teams winning their respective division. New England is
still improving with the addition of Ochocinco and a motivated Haynesworth.
Brady is still the best QB in this league and they are in a “win now”
situation. The Jets may be just behind
but I don’t think they’ll be able to pass the Pats. I think the Chargers have
had their lesson by having a losing record after the first 5 games the last few
years. They are in a weak division and they will easily win their division.
Philly (NFC East) 25$ @ 2.10 =
52.50$
With those key additions like Young, Asomugha,
Jenkins, DRC , Browns...this team is going for the Superbowl and nobody will
even touched them in the division. The Cowboys are still overrated, Romo is not
the answer and will never be, they lost a lot of key players off the line because
of the CBA. I see the Cowboys having a 8-8 season as well as the Giants. I
think the Eagles are going for a 12-4, 13-3 season if everyone is healthy.
Dallas have 4 big games starting the season and if the doesn’t go 3-1 before
the bye week, It’ll be though for them to go win the division. And I don’t think neither the Giants nor the
Redskins are in position to talk about winning the division.
Arizona (NFC West) 15$ @ 4.33 =
64.95$
I think the NFC West is up for grabs on which
team will be able to put up around 9 wins in the season to pick up the
division. The Cards have made significant improvement by getting a franchise QB
in Kevin Kolb, I know he has played live 8 full games in his career, but he
will be able to put some good numbers with guys like Fitzgerald, Todd Heap. The
addition of Stewart Bradley is good (if he stays healthy), this guy has a big
shape and can be a good motivator for this defence. I think at those odds you gotta take a chance
on Arizona, the Rams are the favourite to win the division but Kolb can put
some good numbers and making a lot of points. If the defence can make a decent
job, they can win 8, 9 maybe 10 games to win the division. Believe it or not I
see the division like this : ARI 8-8 , STL 7-9, SEA 7-9, SF 4-12. After I saw
the odds I just had to jump on the Cards even if I’m not that confident with
the picks.
Houston (AFC South) 20$ @ 2.25 = 45.00$
(punched the bet on September 6th)
Again, the Houston Texans are playing the
Indianapolis Colts in the first week this season WITHOUT Peyton Manning. That
is the main reason why I make this bet because in the past, we all know the Tex
had a lot of trouble finding ways to win against the Colts but without Peyton
the Texans will probably win the first game. Talking about the Colts, they will
have a hard time winning with Kerry Collins for the first 2-3 games. This is
enough for the Texans to run away with the division because I don’t think the
Jags and the Titans are relevant in the division.
Philadelphia NFC Champ 25$ @ 7.50 = 187.50$
Philadelphia Super Bowl 25$ @ 13.00 =
325$
On paper, this team is like the
Miami Heat, so all they have to do is, stay healthy, play like they can play,
winning the division, getting the field advantage in the playoffs and winning
the big game because only the Saints are scaring me in the NFC. We know Vick is
fragile and the Oline had some difficulties in the preseason but I think they
will be able to fix it. Vick seems to be humble even after the signature and
really want to win the big game. They probably have 3 of the Top 10 CB in the
league and I think Nate Allen will have a big year. If they are able to stop
the run this team is going all the way. But hey, who am I to say this, I’m just
a die hard fan and I just want this team to win the championship...And at these
odds, I just had to put some money on it before the line dropped.