Took a bath in week 1 last season. Not exactly keeping my powder dry, but treading a little more lightly this time around.
Will add more, but let's start with BSU vs V TEch.
I'm a BSU believer. What a great story and great program. Great coaching, great weapons, giant killer. But...not so fast- they're traveling a lllllllong way to play a very good team. All eyes will be on Kellen Moore, while they should be on Tyrod Taylor. I'm betting that this will be the Tyrod Taylor show, both passing and running. Moore will likely get his, but I don't care. I say it won't be enough in the end. Tyrod's got the running game behind him with two totally capable RBs, and as a result he'll connect with the only two returning WR's in the country to have 30 or more receptions with an average 20+ yards per in the country last season. Beamer knows how to work this thing. How many times have we seen this scenario? BSU's team hasn't played in front of a crowd like this. Huge numbers and riotous atmosphere, even if it's not Blacksburg.
Concerns for the VTech defense? Sure, the Hokie's defense is starting 7 new, but I don't care. BSU is on the road, and I think this Hokie team is sick of hearing about BSU (91,000 people will let them know). Hokies in the dawg role is money here.
VTech +3...I'll go with the ML when it's FINALLY posted at Bookmaker (fockers, hurry up).
Don't know if I have his monicker exactly right. His cousin had posted several months ago with his login saying he'd been hit by a car and was in critical condition. I never saw a follow up.
The game is being played on a "neutral" court because the rodeo is in town. But the crowd will be full of season ticket holders and Reb backers.
I figured the line would be UNLV -6. Hate to bet against my team, but I'm leaning that way.
The win blowout win over Xavier this week was nice, but don't overlook that it was a revenge game. Xavier embarrased the Cats in '07 103-77 and 4 players on the current Cats roster played and/or witnessed it. It was the worst loss of Head Coach Frank Martin's young career, and player and head coach comments leading up to the game reflected it big time. Nice angle and I took it for the win.
UNLV will be the best team KSU has faced yet. Lon Kruger is the real deal, and he'll have his team focused on his alma mater KSU's team. Young coach Frank Martin on the road (who is pretty good, by the way) vs one of the best in the business (possibly one of the best ever) coaching at home and on a roll.
When KSU wins, it's because of their "punch you in the face" defense, and they do it well. The edge could be very well be negated @ UNLV who can play some brutal defense themselves.
Like I said, leanin' UNLV unless I get a compelling reason to leave it alone. Might look at the Under as well.
GO CATS EMAW
I'll be siding with the Cats and I'll keep my perfect record betting for/against the Cats this season intact.
I realize that MU has a good rush defense, but I'm pretty sure that if Baylor can torch MU's defense for 400+, Bill Snyder will have success through the air when necessary. Grant Gregory is throwing for 60%, which is sufficient enough to score some points.
Bill Snyder is 14-3 vs MU and never lost to Pinkel. MU beat KSU three of the first four times they played under Bill Snyder. He never lost against them again. How the hell will Pinkel win in Manhattan with his current crew?
Question - how many touchdowns has MU scored in the second half vs Big 12 competition?
Answer - zero.
The formula for MU will be simple: stop Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's best RB. Thomas, by the way, never played RB til this season. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and around 105 per game. Other than that, MU has to hope that QB Grant Gregory (who was 20/31 for 215 yds and 65% in Norman vs OU) can't get anything done on the ground or through the air.
Not as big a play as last week, but I'll be on it as Bill Snyder outclasses another overrated coach.
Had I known Dr Bob was going to give me 2 more points on OU, I would have waited. Oh well...I'm spitting in the face of Dr Bob's 4 star NU play.
NU's offense is a mess. How many points will they score? They'll need to hit 17-20 to cover this line. KSU gave OU's defense fits last week, and I believe that Stoops and staff emphasized better defense all week long heading into this "rivalry".
Yes, NU defense is very good...I'm counting on OU's offense and Special Teams to care of business where that's concerned. And I do not see NU's offense having much success tomorrow. They're TO prone as hell. And the coaching match up is a landslide in OU's favor
KSU +3 and ML
POW. I'm undefeated betting for and against KSU this season in the following games: Ulala, UCLA, A&M, and CU. Too much momentum happening here, folks, and KU doesn't have the horses to overcome it. The train's rollin', albeit with a patchwork KSU team.
One the biggest reasons Bill Snyder came out of retirement is because he couldn't tolerate the KU losses. He always emphasized this game and his record shows it, by the ton (13-4 straight up and ATS). The coaching edge obviously goes to Snyder (though Mangino is an underrated coach, imo). Mangino's conf road record is a serious liability considering the situation he'll face tomorrow.
KU's defense is sorely missing the great LB play they've had the past several years. They don't have the leadership or talent on that side of the ball to stop the momentum they'll face tomorrow. KU's Reesing, Briscroe, and Meier are top notch when they're clicking. Even if they're clicking tomorrow, it won't be enough to stop KSU's mo-mo.
Snyder's philosophy has taken hold and the team has bought in whole-hog. 5th yr QB and USF transfer Grant Gregoroy is not a stellar QB, but he has performed very well while learning the system. Things began to click last week as he ran and threw very well vs OU's defense. KU is in a very slippery spot after losing 3 straight...if things happen, it could be "here we go again".
KU needed a miracle to defeat ISU. KU couldn't stop CU. KU was destroyed by the same OU team that KSU nearly defeated ON THE ROAD last weekend. Coming off a confidence building loss in Norman, watch Snyder's patched-together team come back home and beat the overrated Hawks tomorrow by double digits. MOMENTUM
Good spot for MU. Gabbert still quite hobbled, but MU has enough weapons on both sides of the ball to get it done. They clicked very well last week @ CU and the game was never in doubt. They see a chance at winning the Big 12 north and will take nothing for granted vs an overmatched south opponent.
Baylor has as much talent as ever, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which is a concern...but MU needs to assert themselves and they have the motivation and talent to do it tomorrow vs a completely idle Baylor offense that has scored 7, 10, 7, 10 in their last 4.