My picks are made using a formula based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric and injury adjustments based on the stats at Pro Football Focus.
Week 1 was a losing week, but week 2 got off to a good start with Jets getting the cover. Here's the rest of my week 2 picks:
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +8
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3.5
NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5
This line is simply way too high. Everyone should lock in Wolves +8 against the Thunder. Again, this a healthy Minny team, and OKC has been less than stellar on the road this year. I would even give a slight edge to the Wolves to win this game outright, but just to be safe, I'll be taking the points. Expect a close game in this one and a cover for the Wolves.
This line is up there with the softest of the season. The Lakers are a pretty terrible road team, and Minnesota has a really solid rotation now that Budinger, Pekovic, and Kirilenko are healthy. Sure, Gasol is back, but World Peace is out so that's negligible. Even if Kobe were 100%, I'd still pick the Wolves to win this game outright. But with the bad ankle, I'd honestly be surprised to see the Lakers win this one, much less cover the 5 points. Everyone should be on the Wolves tonight.
BEARS AT TITANS
projected score: CHI 22.9 - TEN 13.7
*Formula created using DVOA from Football Outsiders and other advanced metrics
Pick are documented on my blog at www.TERPretation.com
SEATTLE +8 (WIN)
projection: HOU 24.1 - BAL 21.8
value: 4.2 points
projection: TB 25.3 - NO 22.2
value: 6.1 points
*2 unit bet
LIONS-BEARS under 47.5
projection: CHI 24.5 - DET 16.5
value: 6.5 points