Wake Forest +7 at Clemson
Unfortunately my venture into home favorites didn't work all that well yesterday, as Elon University put up 53 points in the second half and beat Western Carolina.
It's only by coincidence that I'm back to a road dog tonight. This line originally opened up at 9.5, and unfortunately I'm writing this up a little late, so the line is now down to 7 points.
Even still, Wake Forest is coming in on a 6 game covering streak and has also covered all 4 of their games on the road this season. They have also covered 11 of the last 12 times they have played Clemson, with last year's game at home being the lone exception.
Clemson is only 1-3 ATS in their last 4 home games and haven't exactly lit it up in conference play so far, going 1-2 in the first three ACC games. In fact, the Tigers have only covered 1 of their last 7 ACC games.
So I'm going with Wake Forest here. They may not win like my other road dog picks this year, but they'll keep it close enough to cover.
Western Carolina -1 vs. Elon University
My first two published picks were road dogs, and they served me well, not only covering, but winning the games straight up. Today I'm going a different route and putting my faith behind a home favorite in the NCAA.
Western Carolina is home tonight to host Elon University in a Southern Conference matchup. Elon comes in with a winning record (8-7), while Western Carolina is sub-.500 (7-9). This can be misleading though, because ever since conference play has started Western Carolina has been the better team.
Western Carolina is 4-0 in conference, compared to Elon's 1-2 record. Carolina is also entering the game on a 3 game win streak, while Elon has lost 4 of their last 6 games.
The difference in conference play continues when looking at play against the spread. Elon has covered only 3 of their last 11 games during Southern Conference play. Western Carolina on the flip side have covered 7 of their last 9 Southern Conference matchups.
Head to head, Western Carolina have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with Elon, and 7 of the last 10. Western Carolina have also won 5 of the last 6 meeting against Elon at home. Giving only 1 point, we're pretty much just asking Western Carolina to win this game tonight. I like the odds.
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 at Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors are on a roll. They have won 10 out of their last 13 games after starting out the season an awful 4-19. Excuse me if I'm not impressed though.
In that 10-3 streak, Toronto has only beaten 2 winning teams, and those teams were the 7 and 8 seeds in the Western Conference, Portland and Houston. When those are your two most impressive victories, how seriously can you actually be taken?
The Raptors will play their 6th game in a row at home, going 3-2 so far on their homestand, including a loss to the Sacramento Kings.
The Bucks are coming in to this afternoon's game in a little slump, losing 6 of their last 10 games. And while Milwaukee is only 8-8 on the road this year, those 8 wins include 2 against the Bulls, 2 against the Celtics, and one against the Brooklyn Nets.
Furthermore, the Bucks have won 7 straight against the Raptors and 9 out of their last 10 meetings. That's not ATS, that's straight up. So while Vegas plays the Raptors' hot streak, I'm going to play a 7-0 historical SU record until that zero in the loss column disappears.
I can't see Toronto's new balanced scoring attack minus Andrea Bargnani being able to top the Bucks' one-two punch of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Give me Milwaukee getting 2.5 and let me enjoy the rest of my Sunday afternoon.
The Washington Huskies march in to Stanford to take on the Cardinal Saturday night facing the same situation they did in their first two Pac-12 games this year. Washington finds itself a multiple-point road dog facing a mediocre opponent. No problem though, as the Huskies won those first two matchups.
Washington went to Washington State as a 4.5 point underdog and beat their in-state rival straight up, 68-63. They followed that up with a trip to Cal, getting 5.5 points, and easily won that game, 62-47. So you think going into their meeting with Stanford they would have gained some respect from Vegas.
But they didn't. Washington finds itself a 6.5 point dog coming into tonight. The line opened at 8.5, so bettors are realizing the value here. Stanford is 1-2 SU and ATS to start their Pac-12 season, but do have a 7-1 record at home. That record can be a bit misleading though, as they haven't really beaten a quality opponent at home.
To add to matters, they lost as a 9 point favorite at home to Belmont and barely beat Louisiana-Lafayette at home, winning by a measly 6 points. All of this makes a Washington cover a favorable wager, but in case you're still not convinced, Washington has won outright 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two schools.
The Huskies are 4-2 in their last 6 ATS, while Stanford is limping in at 1-4 ATS in their last 5 (with the no line Lafayette game squeezed in between).
If you're looking to add to a winning Saturday, or make up for some early losses, you will want to look to take Washington +5.5.
Good luck and goodnight,