ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Texas is badly in need of a win to avoid going back to Arlington in a 2-0 deficit, but I am thinking that St. Louis takes command of this series.
Colby Lewis: He has some strengths coming into this game. He is a better pitcher on the road, and he is tough against righties. However he also has some glaring warning signs (such as his 4.4 ERA) with the biggest red flag being his 35 home runs allowed.
Interestingly, Berkman, who has much more power from the left side, is 0-7 in his career against Lewis. I don't think that Berkman makes that 0-11. Assuming that Berkman bats cleanup in Game 2, he becomes the key man for St. Louis if Washington decides to pitch around Pujols.
What I learned from Game 1: Home field advantage for St. Louis is a much bigger advantage that I had thought because of the
way it will force Ron Washington to compromise the use of one of his
biggest weapons - Ogando out of the bullpen. Tonight, Ogando was used
for only 1 out in the 5th because Texas had a scoring opportunity in the
top of the 6th. This could come into play again for Game 2. If
the game is close (I don't think that it will be), Ogando's strength of
being able to throw multiple innings may be neutralized.
Jaime Garcia: He was mediocre in his first two playoff starts, but he came through in Game 5 of the NLCS. Over the past few seasons, Garcia has proven to be a very strong pitcher at home. This season, opponents BAA was only .230 at home versus .313 on the road.
Despite the 1-run margin in Game 1, I continue to think that each team has the offense to generate bigger wins than what we saw tonight, so I will keep playing big units on the ML side and sprinkle in some run line plays to leverage that pick.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ML +102 / 8 UNITS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS RUN LINE -1.5 +180 / 1 UNIT
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ALT RUN LINE -2.5 (line pending) / 1 UNIT
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PENDING WORLD SERIES PLAY: CARDINALS +135 / 10 UNITS
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY
DETROIT TIGERS
With Detroit now down 3-1 in this series, this (and every game following) has become a true "must win" situation as they stare down the barrel of the Rangers' gun. The bottom line here is that Detroit has their own gunslinger in their Ace Justin Verlander, and it is hard for me to see him losing two games and failing to keep the Tigers' World Series hopes alive.
Tigers, Lions, UM: doesn't this feel like the year belong to the beleaguered good people of Michigan?
C.J. Wilson: No knocks against this guy. He is a quality pitcher. But we now know that Victor Martinez will be in the DH spot (was questionable due to his oblique) and that Delmon Young will also hit (again, oblique).
Justin Verlander: Detroit Ace and likely Cy Young winner at home in an elimination spot.
Both bullpens have been used heavily, but the difference here is that I can see Verlander going very deep in the game (he will need to with Valverde's workload) whereas I don't see Wilson matching him inning for inning.
DETROIT TIGERS -158 / 8 units
DETROIT TIGERS RUN LINE -1.5 +140 / 1 unit
DETROIT TIGERS ALT RUN LINE -2.5 line pending / 1 unit
DETROIT TIGERS ALT RUN LINE -3.5 line pending / 1 unit
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY
NLCS GAME 3 | BREWERS / CARDINALS UNDER 7
The Brewers and Cardinals scored a combined 15 runs in each of the first two games of this series, but I am looking for a very low scoring final in Game 3 based on the starting pitching matchups.
Yovanni Gallardo: Notwithstanding Gallardo's tough outings against St. Louis on September 1st and 6th, I think that this tough righty can deliver against a Cardinals lineup which depends on the potency of its right-handed bats: Pujols, Holliday, Freese and Craig. For the season, Gallardo held righties to a .235 average with 100+ strikeouts in 422 at bats.
Cris Carpenter: He's been a beast down the stretch and has erased most memories of his 1-7 record to start the year. Like Gallardo, Carpenter will have the benefit of facing a Brewers lineup that gets a lot of its production from righties: Braun, Hart and Weeks. Although Rickie Weeks has had the most success against Carpenter, he is also wielding one of the coldest bats right now.
With the series tied 1-1 with neither having the "benefit" of playing in a must-win situation, I think that it is too close to call a ML winner, but I really like the under in this game.
BREWERS / CARDINALS UNDER 7 -105
BREWERS / CARDINALS UNDER 6 line pending
BREWERS / CARDINALS UNDER 5 line pending
BREWERS / CARDINALS UNDER 4 line pending
I will be playing the regular total for 4 units (maybe 8) and look to play 1 unit of each of the alternate lines once they become available.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
ARIZONA (Jackson) @ PHILADELPHIA (Halladay)
PICK: RUN LINE PHILLIES -1.5 -110
Since his most improbable of no-hitter, Edwin Jackson has given up 4-5-4-4 earned runs in each start and has put on a ton of base runners (averages over 4 walks per 9). So he really returned to that same guy he was before that crazy start. Although one could put the Phillies up there with the Cardinals, Mets, and Cubs (until lately) as pathetic, underperforming offenses in the clutch, I think that if Jackson puts enough Phillies on base, even they may score a few runs?
Now onto Roy Halladay: The beauty of splits is that if you can slice and dice the numbers enough you can almost always find something that supports the position you already want to take. Earlier, this year I pointed that Halladay was dominating NL teams who had been facing him for the first time -- in other words, the only teams scoring and beating him were AL teams in Interleague play. Well, then the Reds beat him at home and the Cubs pounded him on Sunday night baseball. So I went back and put these numbers into the spreadsheet and found this.
DATE OPP IP H ER BB SO
7-23 COL 8.0 5 0 1 9
7-10 CIN 9.0 5 0 1 9
7-05 ATL 9.0 5 1 1 7
6-10 FLA 8.0 6 1 1 8
6-04 SDG 7.0 10 2 1 7
5-18 PIT 9.0 9 2 1 6
5-06 STL 7.0 7 1 3 9
5-01 NYM 9.0 3 0 1 6
4-16 FLA 8.0 8 2 0 4
74.0 58 9 10 65
When facing NL opponents at home, Halladay has an ERA of 1.09 with a WHIP of just 0.92. Now this I will take to the bank.
DETROIT (Bonine) @ TAMPA BAY (Niemann)
PICK: RUN LINE RAYS -1.5 -130
Normally, I would pull hard for a guy like the Tigers' Eddie Bonine who gets his first start of the year after serving admirably out of the pen this year. The guy is 29 years old and is in his second full season in the big leagues -- and he is getting the job done coming on to pitch 1 or maybe 2 innings. The problem is that he will be asked to go as far as 50-60 pitches will take him. Maybe that is 4 innings, or maybe it is 5 - but it will certainly mean that we will likely see at least 3 more Tigers relievers behind him. While Bonine's 2.72 ERA and 1.25 WHIP are very good - if you look at his game log, his runs allowed have come in outings when he has been asked to pitched 3 or more innings.
I think that the Rays should win this game easily. The are 2 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and they have one of their big (literally) guns on the mound, facing a team that seems likely to fade from AL Central contention. The total set at 8.5 looks interesting for a play on the OVER, but I am not sure Detroit can score its share of runs against Niemann. ML odds are set at -225. I am willing to spot the Tigers the RL to reduce the risk of loss.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
PITTSBURGH (Ohlendorf) @ COLORADO (Cook)
PICK: PIRATES +200
On July 18th, I made the mistake of calling out Cook as a fraud, more or less, and he shoved it back in my face by out-dueling my youngster Travis Wood and taking the cash and saddling me with another loss on the Reds. Well, I am not backing down from my position. Aaron Cook has not been (well, consistently) keeping his sinker down in the zone and he has been getting pounded. Yes, his record at home is much better than his overall total, but given my point of view, that is a trend destined to be faded, not trusted.
Ross Ohlendorf won't wow you but let's give it up for his straight good starts! Hey, as I have said many times before, when I am backing a +200 dog, I look for the positives. Pirates are a young team that showed in a recent weeks the innate ability to go on power displays . . . and why not on the best stage of all - Coors Field - against a fading Cook?
I was also seriously considering playing the OVER on this as well, but I am not going to try that stunt again (had the Pirates and the Over last week in a game against San Diego).
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BEST OF LUCK TO ALL / All comments welcome -- I'll be up late tonight.
I got hammered yesterday: lost all five games in which I bet the favorite, including Johnson, Price and Lincecum. I did go 3-0 on my underdog picks, so clearly I am having better luck there. I have been really pleased overall in the % getting the outcome of my side's starting pitcher correct, but have had my fair share of late inning heroics and snafus. So, I will focus more on the dogs for now, where I can only lose 1 unit and get paid big if the play comes through for me.
CINCINNATI (Cueto) @ CHICAGO CUBS (Wells)
PICK: REDS -115
Cueto comes into this game with 3 straight terrific starts, and he is facing a Cubs team that simply cannot win baseball games, no matter who is starting for them.
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UNDERDOG SPECIAL
NEW YORK METS (Dickey) @ WASHINGTON (Strasburg)
PICK: METS +170
The market is still overvaluing the obvious talents of Mr. Strasburg, and is ignoring his 100 pitch limit and the inevitable reliance on the Nationals pen. There is no reason to expect anything less than another sensational outing from Strasburg, but as I have emphasized many times before, he will likely be limited to pitching no more than 7, 6 or even 5 innings. Although the Nationals pen is one of the better in baseball, as measured by ERA, the pen has struggled lately and has not been helped by the fielding either. Facing the Nationals, we have RA Dickey who has surprised us with his effectiveness. I have been waiting for his blowup and we got that his last start, and hopefully he will return to form tomorrow. I anticipate a close battle between the starters, which means I am basically betting Mets +170 from the 7th inning stretch to rest of the game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SEATTLE (Vargas) @ DETROIT (Verlander)
PICK: MARINERS +170
This is my 3rd straight underdog pick on the Mariners, who leave Yankee stadium winning 2 of 3, with the lone loss being a nail-biter to -400 Sabathia. I realize that Verlander is a better home pitcher, but for the season, the stats and game log show that Vargas has been better and more consistent. The Mariners also bring a 0.291 team BA against Verlander into this game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
BALTIMORE (Guthrie) @ BOSTON (Lester)
PICK: ORIOLES +270
This is the longest shot of my underdog picks but here is why. You can say this about Guthrie: he tends to give you a quality start in over 67% of his starts. And he faces a Red Sox lineup that is now seriously depleted by injury. The Orioles are facing the best Sox pitcher, and the most I can realistically hope for is a few scattered runs, or an improbable blowup by Lester. However, if I am right that the Red Sox will be challenged to score runs, I think that the Orioles can squeak out a lead, in time for us to keep our fingers crossed for the bullpen to close.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
KC ROYALS (Chen) @ LA ANGELS (Santana)
PICK: ROYALS +165
I am back on the Royals for the 2nd straight night. Statistically, Chen and Santana are nearly the same in terms of ERA and WHIP. Chen has been a gritty pitcher, making the most of his talents, to keep the Royals in the game. While I don't like this 25:39 BB:K ratio, he allows less than 1 hit per inning and his K/9 IP is nearly 1, which means that he can pitch out of trouble. Santana has been the more inconsistent of the two pitchers and opponents bat 0.272 against him. The Royals as a team have the #1 batting average in baseball, which means they are always dangerous to get runners on base and score runs.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SF GIANTS (Zito) @ COLORADO (Jimenez)
PICK: GIANTS +185
Zito has pitched well for most of the season including a strong start against the Rockies earlier this year. As a team, the Rockies are hitting only 0.205 against him in 210 AB. Jimenez has been outstanding this year, but has struggled in his last two starts. I have often pointed out that you assume he finishes the year with an ERA of just 2.5, that means he will have to average 3.5 the rest of the way -- the law of averages will have to come into play at some point.