First time starting a thread, but I've gotten so much good information from this forum that I'd like to give some back. Hopefully, it's good information.
Anyways, I see everyone and their mama on Houston to cover against Tulane. Houston is a 72% covers consensus. At first glance, I immediately said Houston will smoke Tulane. But upon further review some things stuck out.
First off, 34.5 is ALOT of points for a team with no defense to be giving on the road, especially one with no defense who knows their offense will win the game for them and might not care. Prior to last week, Houston has not been blowing everyone out on the road. They beat UNT by 25, LaTech by 1, UTEP by 7. I actually laid off of Houston last week because of this and they surprised me by covering. On the year, outside of FCS teams, the lowest Houston has allowed opposing offenses was 3 by ECU, 13 by UAB. Beyond that, every other team has scored between 20-35 points against them.
Now let's look at last weeks cover. They won by 43. With ten minutes left in the 4th, they were only up by 29. By then, Keenum was pulled. They had the final number because of a pick 6. Then, off a drive that started at the UAB 46 because UAB's back up QB couldn't drive the team, Houston's back up scored a TD. Again, before this, Houston was barely covering, and maybe even losing depending on your number.
On the other side, let's look at Tulane. First off, Tulane SMOKED UAB 49-10. Second, Tulane is a better offensive team than UAB. UAB's highest point totals were 26 against UCF and 23 each against ECU and Troy. On the year, they average 12 a game. Tulane averages 22 with their highest total 49 against UAB, 34 vs. Syracuse and 24 vs. SMU.
If Houston holds Tulane to their average, they would have to score 56-57 just to cover. Can Tulane score ABOVE their average against the weak Houston D? Especially with an extra number of possession since Houston is likely to strike fast?
some other things to consider:
-Houston is on the 2nd of back to back road games with only 5 days rest since beat UAB. Tulane is also on 5 days rest but is hosting
-Tulane's points this year haven't really come in garbage time. They haven't scored much in the 4th in their losses.
-Tulane is a pass heavy team. They can score in one play. Other teams that are more pass oriented that Houston has played: Rice scored 34, UTEP scored 42. Marshall scored 28. Only UTEP was on the road, other games where at home.
-Houston's highest scoring games this year, 73 vs. Rice in the crazy shootout two weeks ago. 63 vs. Marshall, 56 vs. ECU. ALL AT HOME. On the Road, highest totals are 56 at UAB, 49 at UTEP, 48 at UNT. They average 47 on the road.
-Case Keenum has been chasing records the last 2 weeks, breaking one three weeks ago and breaking the career yardage and final major passing record last week. There is no other record he is chasing.
Bottom line, If they only hold Tulane to their average, Houston HAS to score 56 just to cover. So the real question is, do you think Houston will score MORE than 56 and will Tulane score MORE than their average of 22?
Now, I'm not trying to make people not bet on Houston. Just giving some facts that I think are key. Ultimately we all make our own decisions and I would hate to sway people from betting Houston and they cover. But, with the amount of people going Houston, I would also hate for them to NOT cover and know that I had some info that might had proved useful to some of you guys.
Anyways, this post ended up being long winded, and again, please make your own decisions. I just wanted to share some things cause that's what this forum is for right?