Posted Tuesday, May 22, 2012 02:06 PM
Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 02:00 PM
Here's the supporting data:
4/8/12 vs Bos (Buchholz) whip=1.91... 13-12w
4/10/12 vs TB (Moore) whip=1.58... 5-2w
4/16/12 @ KC (Duffy) whip=1.59... 3-2w
4/18/12 @ KC (Sanchez) whip=1.86... 4-3w
4/27/12 @ NYY (Nova) whip=1.65... 6-7L
4/28/12 @ NYY (Garcia) whip=1.78... 7-5w
5/1/12 vs KC (Hochevar) whip=1.54... 9-3w
5/2/12 vs KC (Sanchez) whip=1.86... 2-3L
5/6/12 vs CHW (Axelrod) whip=1.57... 3-1w
5/16/12 vs Minn (Blackburn) whip=1.77... 7-11L
The Tigers are no where living up to the standards of the public just yet but there have certainly been some very profitable situations with them this year if you have been paying attention and doing your homework. As you can see on any standard stat sheet that the Tigers are scoring 4.39rpg (Which is better than more than half the league already #10) but they are averaging 5.9rpg when facing a SP with a whip greater than 1.5 this year. You will also notice that the Tigers are hitting .257ba as a team (Also better than more than half the league #10) but vs SP's with a whip greater than 1.5 they are batting .286 (100 for 350) as a team with 11hr's in 10 games (59 runs)...
With all this in mind guess who is in town tonight to face the Detroit Tigers? The Cleveland Indians who have lost 10 straight games to the Detroit Tigers as the Indians are sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill who just so happens to have a whip of 1.7 as he has allowed 46 hits in 46 innings pitched and walked a team high 32 batters as his bb/9 is a mind boggling 6.26. You will be hard pressed to find a another every 5 day starter with one that is higher than 5.
Tonight's play is obviously on the Detroit Tigers as follows...
Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 01:19 PM
Struggling RHSP who barely throws 90mph (Blackburn) & worst AL offense team=high probability for Det success tonight. Porcello last year(4 starts) vs Minny=24inn, 21h, 6er, 8bb, 1.2whip & 2.25era. Det & Porcello won all 4 of those games last year 10-2, 4-2, 5-2, 8-1.
More importantly the Tigers were up after 5innings in all 4 Porcello games vs Minny L yr: 6-1, 4-0, 4-2, 2-1. So I get the Tigers vs yet another struggling RHSP (Where lots of their success has came from this year as you will see below in previous links posted here)
And I also get to fade the worst offense in the american league in runs per game at 3.33rpg and 26th in MLB batting at .235. And I get to do it with one of the more serviceable (one of my favorite words used to describe Porcello as he's not lights out but he gets the job done vs the lessor teams) pitchers in the american league. If you have been following the Tigers at all this season you should already understand that Leyland continues to make bad decisions with his bullpen (Which sucks BTW). So I will simply avoid the full game by doing this below...
Det 1st 5inn RL-0.5(-130)5u(Porcello/Blackburn)...
Posted Saturday, May 12, 2012 02:00 PM
Well at least for the last 2 years anyways it means you get down on the under. He has started 18 games at AT&T park within the past 2 baseball seasons and those games have stayed under the total 15 times (83%) as only 4.77 runs per game were averaged in these games. Need proof, here ya go...
5/8/11 vs Col 3-0w o/u7.5
5/20/11 vs Oak 2-1w o/u6.5
5/26/11 vs Fla 0-1L o/u7
6/5/11 vs Col 2-1w o/u7
6/10/11 vs Cin 3-2w o/u7
6/22/11 vs Min 5-1w u/o6.5
7/8/11 vs NYM 2-5L o/u6.5
7/18/11 vs LAD 5-0w o/u6.5
7/23/11 vs Milw 4-2w o/u7
8/3/11 vs Ari 8-1w o/u7.5
8/8/11 vs Pit 0-5L o/u7
8/25/11 vs Hou 1-3L o/u7.5
8/30/11 vs CHC 2-5L o/u6.5
9/4/11 vs Ari 1-4L o/u7
9/10/11 vs LAD 0-3L o/u7.5
9/26/11 vs Col 3-1w o/u7
4/15/12 vs Pit 1-4L o/u7.5
5/3/12 vs Mia 2-3L o/u6.5
That's right the Ryan Vogelsong factor inside AT&T park...
My wager if you haven't already guessed it:
Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 04:57 PM
When I overlook tonight's match up and/or possible starting pitching for the evening. We notice that Cain is up against Cahill. The 1st thing that pops into my head is "I know Cain has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career" with a career FB% of 44% (And a career high FB% this year of 51.8%). With his k/9 still sitting in the low to high 7's like the last 5 years but his bb/9 a career best at 1.39 that tell's me hitters are getting more contact this year off of Cain and he has been rather fortunate as his babip is currently a very friendly .181. So basically when you see on the standard stats that he only has allowed 26hits in 45.1innings it does not tell the whole truth.
With thee above in mind it's no surprise that his early success this season has only come in the cozy confines of AT&T park where AT&T park is currently the top pitcher friendly park in the league at .343hr's per game (Which is exactly where AT&T park finished last year with .596hr per game). However Cain has pitched outside of AT&T park just 2 times this year and the results did not end well. In his 2 visits to Chase Field (Ari the #1 hr per game park at 1.882pg this year) & Great American Ball Park (Cincy the #2 hr per game park at 1.745pg this year) the Giants have gone 0-2 in Cain's starts as he has allowed 11h, 8er, 4bb, 11k's all in 12.1inn of work. The thing you may have missed was he also allowed 2hr's in each of those games (That's 80% of his hr's allowed this season) as the Giants ended up allowing 16 total runs on 19hits in those 2 games. A far cry from the Giants 8 total runs 12hits in those 2 games. Also in Cain's last 3 visits to Chase Field he has allowed 13er's, 3hr's in 20inn for an era of 5.85.
On the flip side the D-Backs will have a very heavy career GB% pitcher as Cahill's GB% is 53.8% for his career and a very very noticeable 62.2% this year. Not to mention that in his career vs the Giants, Cahill is 3-0 (D-Backs 3-1) with 1.32era in 27.2innings of work only allowing 16hits, 4er's, 4bb's and just 1hr while striking out 17. Cahill equals exactly what a Chase field pitcher needs for success (A very high rate of ground balls)...
The bottom line here is with Cain on the hill tonight it means in simple terms that Arizona should have a high probability of hitting some more HR's tonight. They got 2hr's last night vs GB heavy pitcher Bumgarner so if the contact is there tonight they may top that with Cain on the mound...
Ari 1st 5inn(ev)3u(Cahill/Cain)
It's very easy to turn on your computer and look at these trends daily and notice things like this with just a quick look up and down any live odds/match-up page. But what many usually fail to do is further any research as to why this may have happened. Since Chris Young's injury the Arizona offense has actually averaged just 3.8rpg which is almost a whole run less per game as they were averaging 4.72rpg with him in the 11 games previous games to April 18th. Arizona is also 7-14 overall since April 18th as a team on the field losing 9 of those games at home. Starting to feel the importance of what Chris Young has meant to his teams success yet? OK now let's talk about those 12 overs that have hit inside of Chase Field. 7 of them were vs better hitting ball clubs= Stl(1x).287ba , Atl(3x).265ba, Phi(3x).257ba. Pittsburgh was the only team thus far to come to Chase Field and cash a couple under's in a 3 game span an we all know were their offense sits. The other 3 overs came in the 1st games of the season vs the same team that the Diamondbacks are facing tonight, the Giants. Except there will be no Pablo Sandoval this time around (5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that 3 game series). If you were wondering Chris Young had 5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that same series. Chris Young's replacement's (Parra & Pollack) have split time in center field since Young's absence are now a combined 33 for 133 (.248ba) 2hr's & 14rbi. A far cry from what Chris Young's 5hr's, 13rbi's and .410ba in just 39ab's. So with all this info now gathered your telling me that we know have the Giants who are only averaging 3.65rpg this season (#23) heading into town minus Kung-Fu and his .315ba and 5hr's & 15rbi's going against the D-Backs minus Young and his production and yet we are still seeing a total set at 9 when the average home set total this season has been 8.71. This is also rather funny that the number on tonight's game is considerably higher than the 3 games these 2 played earlier this season when we seen a 7, 8.5 & 8.5. So we take away Pablo & Young and we get a higher number. To me this is only what the betting market has created as Atlanta, Philly & St Louis kind of drove this number up higher than it should be IMO. Bumgarner is a GB pitcher as his career GB% is 46.5% and this years is even higher at 50.8%. That helps me avoid possible fly balls which tend to catch that Arizona air when the dome is open. It's also great news that Bumgarners opponent for tonight's game is Corbin whom is also been a ground ball heavy pitcher (even higher than Bumgarner) with a GB% of 56.7%. Both of these teams both bat worse vs lefties than they do righties so because of all this i'm going with this below...
This game reeks of 2-1 or 3-1 with Bumgarner having a big advantage.