Record: 18-16
$$: +3.3u
4-0 on Sunday. Nice bounce back from a wobbly Saturday. I'm starting to have a better feel now that there is more data and I've had a chance to watch more games. Good luck.
One play today and it's a big one.
St. Johns -1.5 2.5u--> Biggest play of the year thus far. Taking some profits from yesterday and rolling them into this play. Look, I know this line stinks and it's Dickie V night in Detroit and there are whispers that Holman is back, but the bottom line is Detroit just does not play well together, they appear poorly coached and they are coming off back to back home conference losses, one to one of the worst teams in the league in Youngstown St. Usually in scenarios like this, it's a no play but I can't pass up the value in taking a Big East school, albeit on the road, that has a far superior front line w/ God's Gift manning the paint and better coaching. St. Johns is young, a bit undisciplined and have not demonstrated any consistency with their shooting. Bottom line for them is, when they win they make shots (+50%) and when they lose they don't (<39%). Detroit gives up better than 46% shooting to their opponents. Detroit lacks a 3 point shooter and with Minnerath out and Holman yet to play, have zero post presence. There is always risk with every bet, and Detroit could come out inspired at home and catch St. Johns flat on the road against a mid-major but I'm betting that St. Johns will be motivated following the ass whooping at Kentucky and with their being a bit of hype (Dickie V night), they come out and play their A ball which is more than good enough to cover 1.5 vs. this current version of Detroit bball.
I like the value here but know more than anything, that nothing is given or guaranteed and there is a reason this line is so short. We shall see. I'll be a square.
Record: 14-16
$: -1.2
3-5 yesterday for a rough Saturday. Bounce back.
Wichita st -2 2u-->great home team that takes care of the boards and guards the 3. Vegas has talent but still feeling a let down spot.
Maryland +2 1u--> too teams in rebuilding mode. ND coming east after west coast game. I like Turgeon boys to play well at home. Showed signs last game.
Kansas St +4.5 1u--> frank Martin. His teams come ready and I like the kstate Athletes vs a struggling va tech squad
Mississippi +2 1u--> penn st is horrible especially when facing better athletes.
Record: 11-11
$: +1.2
2-1 on Friday, hitting my first multi-unit play of the year w/ Vandy. I like a lot of games today but trying to be selective. Locked in two games and will probably play 2 or 3 more.
Good luck.
USC/Min Under 120 1u--> I actually thought about backing the Trojans +8 but this a west coast to east coast travel, early start. Plus, offensively, USC is terrible. They avg 8 assists a game which is just sad in college ball and shoot less then 39%. Minny obviously is missing big weapons on the interior and do not shoot it well from perimeter. I see a slug fest with each team struggling to get to mid 50's.
Ga Tech +2.5 1u--> Plugging my nose and taking the Jackets on the road. Tulane has played nobody and should not be favored against any ACC team. I think Tech can control the boards with their size and make enough shots to be in range last possession. Tech looked bad defensively against NW princeton offense so look for that to be much better as Gregory has them ready.
Will be playing Marquette for sure but wanting to get it at 8. Tough to fade Wisky at home but this Marquette squad is a perfect team to do so. They have veteran back court (Great assist/TO ratio), they create turnovers defensively and hold to low % (Under 38%) and they get to the FT line. Athletically, obviously big advantage to Marquette. Bo Ryan's team will play their style but I feel a little let down spot coming off hard fought loss at N.C. I like taking the points in what I feel will be a couple possession game. That said, Marquette will have to hit some jump shots which can be worrisome with this team.
Leans:
Zags+3 (better team first test for illinois)
Ark +12.5 (Mike Anderson coached razorbacks will play hard and fast)
Hof -2 (home court, better team)
Ariz St +8.5 (too much?)
UCLA -1.5 (gulp)
Charlotte +5.5 (playing tough of late, weak opponent)
WV +4.5 (Miss St. is so inconsistent and don't see them responding to physicality of Huggins squad)
Record: 9-10
$$: -1.2
Nothing to get excited about yet with this slow start. I have a few plays tonight.
Vandy +8.5 2u--> I grabbed this line last night thinking it would come down to at least 6 but not seeing much movement yet. I've watched Vandy a lot this year and clearly this is a team that will compete for the SEC title w/ Kentucky but they are missing a key piece with Ezele being injured. That said, they are facing a Louisville team who has their share of injuries. Louisville has played great D this year (33% opp FG) but I don't believe they've faced the quality of competition that Vandy has faced. Vandy has battled tested guards and they can shoot the 3 ball. I feel like Louisville will have some holes against stiffer competition in terms of their offense as i don't know where they go for buckets when they need one. It's always risky to fade Patino at home but I like a veteran group getting 8.5 points in a game where I strongly feel they are a live dog.
Georgia/Cincy Under 121.5 1u--> Two teams who really struggle to score is an obvious statement. Georgia shoots 38% from the floor and Nick Cronin's Bearcats are holding teams to 37.5% from the floor. Neither team fills it up from deep, although Ga will hoist a few, but with Cincy's 28% 3pt defense I don't see that being an issue. The Bearcats are atrocious from the foul line coming in at 58%. Couple these shooting stats with the fact that both teams will play half court, low possession game I like the pace. Cronin is incessant about preaching defense and I think on the road they'll show up. Both teams limit turnovers for the most part which also is big in controlling pace and eliminating easy buckets. Like the under for a unit.
Auburn +8 .5u--> Just a little feeler here as I haven't seen a lot of Auburn so don't have a great eye test feel. However, I've seen enough of Seton Hall to know that them giving 8 points to anyone might be a stretch. The Hall has some weapons but their shot selection continues to be questionable. They do play a bit better defense then past Hall teams but it's certainly not upper tier. Auburn is intriguing with the Texas transfer Varez Ward running the show. They have length and athleticism (blocking 8 shots a game) and they seem to be playing much better defense (33% FG D) albeit against terrible comp so far. 8 points seems a bit much here as I like this game to be low possession and limited 3 pt buckets. I do worry about Auburn's FT shooting in this one.
No play on Cuse vs. Florida but Florida has the intangibles I like for a road team in a big game getting some points. Experienced back court, limit turnovers, great 3 pt shooters, well coached, and good defense. Just can't fade the Orange at home.
Record: 7-8
$$: -1u
Caught a chiller last time out, and yesterday wasn't much better. I expect a nice card tonight. Good luck.
Pitt-6 1u--> Pitt a little under valued here based off some struggles a few weeks ago. This is a local rivalry game on neutral floor. Dukes have guards to try to counter balance Gibbs and Woodall but I think Pitt will dominate the glass (Dukes are -12 on boards). I also think this team will start veering towards the mean of Jamie Dixon type defense. They are not there yet but I think they've had preparation time and plenty of motivation for tonight.
Col St -3 1u--> I think it's fair to say that col state has been a bit disappoint so far, especially ATS. That said, I like them in this rivalry home spot against the buffs. They'll need to control tempo, push the ball and get open looks. They are shooting 44% from 3 so far this year which is top 10 in the NCAA. If they get hot early, this could be a route. Buffs coming off a nice home win this week vs. Georgia. State will have the crowd and the energy and I like them by 5 or 6.
Leans:
Buffalo +8.5
Elon -4
NC St. Pk (see lots on IU?? Wood may not play)
RI-5 (Brown is horrible)
Va Tech +2.5 (I hate betting against Gophers at home in the barn)
UCSB +2.5
Creighton +2.5