Awful start. I might be fade work only but I really love one play tonight. I've taken off a few days to try and get a better feel. Early season is tough but I can't find it at all right now. It happens and I know if I stay the course I'll be around 50-60% by year end hoping to be on the high end. Just how it goes. Looking to start a winning streak of profitable days tonight and get it started with a big play..
Florida St -3.5 5u - This is a big play for me and I would probably have continued to watch had this line not posted. Tough, tough spot for Tubby's Gophers here and while I like this Minnesota team a lot, going into Tallahasse on a Tuesday night after a bunch of games and travel the last few weeks doesn't bode well. 3 games the past 5 days against top tier comp (Stanford, Memphis and Duke). Florida St. has stabilized well after the first game debacle vs. S. Alabama. They beat a good St. Joe team and a decent BYU team on a neutral floor. I'm looking for Florida St.'s defense to create their offense. In the half court, Sota is tough to score on 35% OPP FG. However, they've shown they are vulnerable to athletic teams who pressure and then run out of that pressure (see Duke result). Snaer is a good perimeter scoring threat and I look for him to get some open looks in transition. Florida St. can match them on the boards which has been key to Sota's early success getting 12 ORB a game. More than anything, this is a spot play backing a strong defensive team vs a road weary team which is an angle I'll hammer every time.
NC State +6.6 1u - I like the Pack to keep this close. Two solid teams, where Michigan has gotten better results and has looked very good. They have one of the most dynamic back courts in the country with Hardaway and Burke and with newcomer Robinson on the inside to pair with Morgan and a few other talented frosh, this Michigan team is very good. I actually like Michigan in FUTURE's bet to win big 10 at decent odds. However, NC State can match up athletically and I think the versatility of the interior players will give Michigan trouble. Howell and Leslie are top notch forwards who can play inside-out. Brown is a proven scorer who can set up the offense and Wood is a key role player. Michigan success usually comes out of the precision they get offensively through running the Princeton offense. They shoot a bunch of 3's. NC State defends the 3 fairly well at 30% OPP. I think this will be a back and forth game with each team making a run. I think in the end, it will come down to the last few possessions so I'll take the chalk.
$$: -4.3 units
Off to a bad start. A few bad beats (eg. Gtown yesterday) and some just flat bad calls. Gotta keep it 100 though, and post the good and bad. Looking for a little heat. BOL!
I'm looking for better #'s so nothing locked in yet.
Not my night last night. Full card tonight.
Georgetown +8.5 1.5u - Like the Hoya's length to bother Zeller and they appear to be executing better offensively than the Hoosiers at this pt in the season. Ill take the pts.
NDSU +1 1.5u - I backed Dukes last night and paid for it. They are playing uptempo but undisciplined. North Dakota won't rely as much on jump shots and I like their D a bit better.
Illinois -14 1u - This line has value based on the big upset last night. I like an experienced backcourt to dominate play and Illinois obviously shooting it well in Maui.
UCLA -12 1u - Georgia while catching IU flat last night are still not a good team at all. Bad shots, and lack of flat talent. I like UCLA to continue to gel with Shabazz. Anderson will bounce back as well. I faded them correctly last night, now I will lay the chalk.
Texas A&M -3 1u - ill take another shot at the aggies. This team is better than they showed last night.
North Texas +7 1u- Virg is a defensive team with Bennett a their coach but lacking fire power to lay 7 against an experienced squad with a top talent interior player in Mitchell.
First post of the season. I've been laying back a bit and trying to watch as much as I can to get a good feel. I've typically done well early season non-conference capping but we'll see.
Kansas -12 1u - Jayhawks showed some regression following the big match-up with Michigan St which was to be expected. I expect them to bounce back tonight and I think they will overwhelm Wash St.
Georgetown +7 1u- I've not been impressed with UCLA. They still seem undisciplined to me and I think G'town will get great shots if they run their Princeton offense effectively. I do believe Otto Porter will play but even without I'll take the 7.
Texas A&M +2 1u- Finally, A&M has some perimeter players that can score. I like their experience on the inside as well and I think St. Louis is a fade until they get their best player back.
Duques -7 1u- This is more a fade of James Madison then anything else. They are not a good team and Duques will play hard nosed defense and get better shots.
Marquette -4 1u- Better athletes on the smaller court in Maui, and Butler has not figured out how they will score yet and their typically stout defense is a step behind early in the year. I hate to go against Brad Stevens b/c he's one of the best but Marquette similar to Xavier, will have too many athletes.
First post of the NBA season. I like to watch the first week of the season and get a feel for the teams. These will be my first two posted picks. Have a good feel going 3-0 the last two nights. Hopefully it carries over. BOL to everyone!
Thunder -2 - I've been looking at this game. A couple things stand out here to me.
One, Chicago hasn't played anybody yet this year. Yes, they will come
with energy as it's a televised game in the middle of a home stand but
energy doesn't always equal wins and covers (captain obvious I know).
Secondly, you can cap OKC easiest by just looking at their trend for
turnovers and assists. When their assists are down, the ball is
sticking and while they have good 1 on 1 players, they tend to play
close games or lose. Subsequently, their turnovers go way up. Thibs
teams feast on turnovers even without D. Rose. Westbrook got killed by
the media and coaches after his last televised performance against the
spurs where he hogged the ball and took terrible shots. Last game he
came out and was moving the ball, had 8 assists. Tonight, look for a
good game from him and a fresh Durant. Plus, OKC has the bigs to
contend with Noah and Boozer which for the bulls they HAVE to generate
offense or else they can't stay in this game.
Vegas is vegas for a
reason and this short line will draw a lot of OKC action but I think
OKC is the play. Last thing I look at is the individual match ups that
will be there in the 1st and 4th quarters. Westbrook vs. Heinrich is a
big MM. Sefalosha and Durants size create other mismatches on the
perimeter and as I said, Perkins and Ibaka can stay with Boozer and
Blazers +2 - Great trend here with Clips on the 2nd game of a back to back. Played a televised game last night against Spurs and played well with tons of energy and got the win as an underdog. Underdog winners going on the road for 2nd night of back to back do not have a good record ATS, and consider that the Rose Garden is one of the toughest places to play in the league. 5th game in 7 nights for Clips as well. Blazers will have tons of energy and I expect them to limit turnovers and get good shots and hold on to make this $$.