Posted Saturday, September 15, 2012 12:27 PMKey points to winning:
Arizona:
-Absolutely have to establish line of scrimmage with Dockett and Campbell, so athletic linebackers can get to Brady. Peterson will have to lead the DB's in playing strong man coverage against all the Pats receivers. Forcing 3-and-outs will be key for field-position as the Cards will need everything they can get.
-Kolb obviously has to play well. Mismatches in the receiving game with Fitzgerald and Roberts against McCourty and Arrington - tight ends match-up well against run stopping linebackers and safeties for New England. Wisenhunt knows they will have to throw to win this one as the Patriots run defense could finish in the top 5 in the league this year, just like Seatlle's of last year who stuffed em clean last weak.
New England:
-Do whatever it takes to get after Kolb as he can flat out lose games for any team he plays on. Fitzgerald can't be a factor and tackling will be key against the backs and underneath routes the Cards run. Stopping the run with base defense could allow for more nickel and dime packages for the Pats.
-Offensively do what they did against Tennessee which is run the ball. Lynch was still able to manage over 80 yards last week and everyone knows it opens up the passing game. Block against what is sure to be a blizting defense because only getting to Brady stops the Patriot offense.
Conclusion:
The Patriots find ways to score on basically every team they face but the Cards' pass defense has allowed under 200 yards/game since the midpoint of last year. On the flipside, the much-improved Pats defense knows that if they are disciplined, Kolb can't beat them.The Patriots took advantage of a Tennessee team that looked as bad as the Pats did good. I think the Patriots show a little bit of the form they had in the pre-season in regard to the offensive line - which was'nt good...Pats 26-20 in a good game
ARIZONA +13.5
The Bengals and Texans both come into the playoffs with a 'backing in' feeling from most critics as the Texans have lost 3 straight and Cincinnati 2 of their last 3. It was only a month ago in week 14 that it took Houston an 80 yard drive to squeek out a 20-19 win in Cincinnati in a game that was at first dominated by the Bengals in the first half, and the Texans with their short passing game in the second half. Up to this point, T.J Yates had been playing well; losses to Indy, Carolina, and Tennessee have followed and the offense has been less than average. Cincinnati gave up 191 yards on the ground last week to Ray Rice - something has to give.
In the week 14 game, Arian Foster was held to a 2.7 yards/rush average and if it was'nt for a 40 yard run by Ben Tate, the run game game was completely shut down. On the flipside, the same went for Cedric Benson as another 40 yard run masked what was an anemic run game on the part of the Bengals.
The passing game was really much of the same as 80 of Yates' 300 passing yards came on the final drive and he was sacked 5 times. The Bengals passing game was'nt much better as Dalton threw for under 200 yards and Cincinnati mustered under 300 yards of offense as a whole. If it were'nt for 3 lost fumbles by the Texans and solid field position, Cincinnati may not have gotten out to the 16-3 first half lead in the first place.
PREDICTION: Although Houston's offense has been struggling lately, their defense has been pretty consistent all year long - especially at home. All Texan home games this year went UNDER the number except the last one which barely squeeked over. T.J Yates is coming back to earth as a rookie and was'nt able to have success against the lowly Colt and Panther defenses late in the season. Expect the Texans not to repeat the costly 3 fumbles lost in the first match, continue with what got them here in Foster, and use the short passing game to prevent the 5 sacks that they allowed in week 14; adding Yates' shoulder injury. Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter combined for 13 catches for 176 yards in the first match and with Daniels healthy and Andre Johnson back, Houston should dominate time of possession. Two rookie quarterbacks with average QBR's and two strong defenses balance this game out fairly well, but the Texans get this one at home.......20-10
HOUSTON -4
UNDER 38
***Hope the info helped...good luck mates!!!!!!!!!
The number starts at 46 with no place for it to go but up. Sure enough, it now stands at 47 and I would'nt be surprised if most of the would-have-been OVER money get's shifted to DALLAS -7. The problem in this game, and lack of security in a Dallas bettors eye, is the fact it's on the road.
The Cowboys are 2-4 away from Dallas and have displayed inconsistent play all over. In their last 4 games they are 0-4 against the spread and show no signs of reversing the trend. They couldnt surpass the 16 point mark against Arizona, Philadelphia, and the lowely New England defense - all of which on the road. They have only scored 4 touchdowns on the ground all year.
On the flipside Tampa is just horrible. They're best weapon is Blount and Dallas has the 6th ranked run defense in the league. They have scored over 20 points once in their last 7 games, all of them losses. Freeman has'nt looked good lately and is banged up. Having said all of that they are playing on Saturday night in a game they may have nothing to play for except their contracts.
PREDICTION: Dallas' defense should be licking their chops in this game as Tampa may have the worst offense in the league right now. Although Dallas has'nt scored on the ground, they have been successful all year between the 20's. Tampa has given up 160 yards on the ground the last 3 games but under 200 through the air. Dallas shoud dominate time of possession in this game but on the road their offense cant be trusted in the red zone - leading to 3's instead of 7's. Tampa? well, the just stink on offense and Dallas should clean up tonight if they want to prove it. The x-factor is Dallas' ability to blow it. The proper bet in this one is:
UNDER 47
The Saints take their 2nd ranked offense into Carolina on Sunday looking to avenge a performance in Jacksonville that saw them walk away from the red-zone 3 times without a touchdown, and a 23-10 win. Carolina on the other hand, is surely happy to be home from Chicago to upgrade a 1-3 record after Matt Forte ran up over 200 yards on their torn up defense. Believe it or not, the Panthers actually think they have a shot at this one and look to notch what would be a huge divisional home win. Let's go to it and break down how this should likely play out.
A misleading assumption in this game is that New Orleans is going to go into Carolina and run the hell out of the ball. To the argument, why not? The Panthers have the 31st ranked rush defense in the league and let up a staggering 5.1 yards/run. On top of this, noticing the Panthers have the 6th ranked pass defense drives the point home further that this game could be lower scoring; this is indicated by the o/u line moving from 52.5 to 51. It is certainly fair to draw this conclusion because how else could you explain the 2nd and 3rd ranked offenses in the NFL to move the number lower. The only problem is that Carolina can't stop giving up the big play.
Although the Carolina defense ranks 14th overall in the league, they rank 31st behind the Patriots in yards/play at 6.5. As mentioned before, 5.1 of that is on the ground; through the air the number goes to 9.0 yards /play, 2nd worst again behind New England. To explain the reason the Panthers have the 6th ranked pass defense, they have only been thrown on 85 times in 4 games, the least in the league-but give up a 99.4 QB rating and the 9yards/pass. In other words, yes, the Saints are going to run the ball down their throat, but it does'nt mean the Panther defense is going to tackle them. If the Saints have a chance to rip off big plays, and evidence shows they will, they're going to go for the jugular and be able to do it on the ground AND in the air, NOT chewing up clock as the under bettors anticipate.
As for the Carolina offense, aside from a monsoon influenced game against Jacksonville they have simply been awsome to watch behind Cam Newton. The Panthers have excellent balance around the guy noone expected to excel this young. With a strong backfield, two solid TE's, and Steve Smith, expect the Saints to Blitz the young QB and build on their total of 13 sacks on the year, 2nd best in the NFL. As this is almost a certainty, so is the strength of the Carolina offensive line. Although Newton has only been sacked 8 times, even more impressive is the fact he's been hit only 14. The public again assumes that the Saint defense is going to blitz heavy and somehow contain Newton. The problem is is that the Panther offensive line can handle the pressure and create big play opportunity's of their own. The Panthers have 25 completions of 20 or more yards, best in the league. The Saints have given up 8 scores through the air.....play the
OVER 51
The Saints score in all facets of the game and do it in bunches. the Panthers' only hope to counter a horrible defense is to get in the race with em'. This one could go over 60 and annihilate the number.......Saints 42-31
*feel free to post comments these opinions are simply my own and I'm always open for a different perspective.....GL to all!!!
Cincinnati brings it's top ranked defense into Jacksonville on Sunday after an impressive win at home against what was the top ranked offense in the NFL. Trying to muster yardage against this defense are the Jags who coincidentally enough, have the leagues 31st ranked offense. Although personnel match-ups usually are a main focus in figuring a winner and are surely pertinent in handicapping NFL games, the statistics speak louder in this one:
-As mentioned at the top, Cincinnati's defense is ranked #1 with a combination of the 7th ranked rush defense and 3rd ranked pass in the entire league. Giving up only 275 yards per contest, the Bengals are only giving up 3.1 yards yards/carry, have only allowed one pass play of over 20 yards, and are a stingy 32% on 3rd down (2nd in NFL).
-On the flipside of the ball, enter the Jacksonville offense which can be summed up as sketchy-at-best. Aside from the always productive Jones-Drew who is averaging 5.1yards on the ground, the Jags simply have nothing to offer in terms of talent, big-play capability, and anyone that creates mis-match problems. TheJags are averaging 9.8 points per game on offense and have scored only 3 touchdowns. Carrying the 32nd ranked pass offense at 137yards/game and 30 rush attempts per game, Jacksonville wants to find balance but just can't do it. Miller and Lewis offer strength at tight end but their top receiver is Mike Thomas-they're basically the Rams of the AFC-very vanilla.
-Matching up the Bengals offense against the Jags defense does'nt provide much in the way of an advantage either way. Cincinnati posts the 20th ranked offense and the Jags the 12th overall defense. the Bengals keep it on the ground 26 times per game and the Jags give up 4.0yards/rush and over 100 yards/game. A.J. green has 3 grabs for over 40 yards (tied most in league) and Mathis is going to have to keep him in check to keep this game in the box.
PREDICTION: Bengals +1.5 Under 37
The weather forecast calls for 3 days of rain starting friday continuing into sunday with gusts of 20mph come game time. Although rain can be an advantage either way, wind has always favored defenses. All of Jacksonville's games this year have gone under the number this year and if they get down before the half, they're in trouble-being outscored 51-6 in the second half this year. the jags have put the ball on the ground a league high 8 times this year and the rain won't help. The Bengals are 12-2 when Benson goes over 100yards. The over/under started at 35.5 for a reason and has been pushed up to 37....buy it up a half point and bet the under...take the Bengals with the points...should prove to be a very solid play.
*hope the information helped,respond with thoughts as these are simply my own