Posted Friday, October 22, 2010 04:49 PMLove GA this weekend, I bet them -4 and I doubt it will be close.
Kentucky was on the brink of getting blown out last week, but got very fortunate to get back in the game and very lucky to win the game. Regardless, they were completely outplayed and I think George can come in here with Kentucky off a super hangover after upsetting So Carolina.
If that's the case, we win this game for fun. If they happen to show up, Ga is still the better team and laying just 4 points is not enough to keep me off. Ga is off 2 blowout wins, much needed wins at home and have something to prove on the road. This has been a very good team on the road in years past (3-1 last year in conf play and won their bowl game 44-20 vs Texas A/M), but this year are 0-3, losing to South Carolina in a hard fought game.
Losing to a good Miss St team that is currently ranked in the top 25. And losing to a bad Colorado team, a game they simply didn't come to play. I think they do here. Also note, 2 of those losses came w/o stud WR AJ Green. His first game back was against Colo.
In that loss Ga out yarded and out first-down'ed Colo, it wasn't like they were outplayed. They threw an INT on the Colo goal line, costing themselves a chance to go up by 10 before the half. They still got the ball back and missed a FG before the half. They were setting up for a game wining FG and then fumbled the ball, pretty much ending the game. Not making excuses, they lost but they certainly weren't outplayed. Again, I think this is a tough, road tested team laying a short price against a lesser foe coming off their biggest win of the season.
One more thing, I'm sure most of you have seen this but I think it tells us how much crowd support there is for Kentucky football. Randall Cobb, the kid that scored the winning TD vs South Carolina, tweeted the following:
"To all the fans: loved seein Yall come late, love hearing Yall tell us we suck during the game, love that we have to play against our own fans too! Love that we can't pack the house when we play the 10 team in the nation. It means that much more to me. I love my team Brotherhood they got my back n I got they back. The rest of Yall can get ready for bball season! Don't say u support n do all those things! Yeah I'm level 9 (upset)... so deal w it! Not blaming all but Yall know who I'm talking abt- Yall know I love bbn but something needed to be said."
Again, he's ripping the fans b/c the fans aren't there. They show up for a game against South Carolina, ranked 10th in the nation and off an upset vs #1 Alabama. Are they going to show up against an unranked Ga team?
Even if they do, how into this game are they going to be? Ga does have Florida up next, but I'm not a fan of the look ahead. Teams and coaches will be focused on this game, they lose this week and it makes the Florida game almost irrelevant. Also, a loss here would pretty much eliminate Ga for a chance at the SEC East title.
Last year Ga choked a big second half lead to Kentucky by allowing 14 points off of 4 turnovers. Ga fumbled the ball on the goal line and would have tied the score with less than 3 minutes remaining, that was a hard loss for this team. I think it's payback against a team that is coming off a Super Bowl win. A team that is off back to back nail biting, exhausting games.
Also note Kentucky's injury issues. Starting RB Derrick Locke has been downgraded to doubtful and even if he does play, how effective will he be with a bum shoulder? I've read reports that he has been ruled out. They've got issues in the secondary with CB Maravius Neloms suffering a concussion last week and listed very questionable vs Ga. They've been without their starting SS Taideo Smith all season.
That's 2 key cogs that won't be in the game vs WR stud AJ Green. I fully expect a blow out in this game. Good luck.
I usually don't lay big favorites in the NFL. Colleges, yes because there are severe gaps in talent and sometimes the sharp side is laying multiple TDs.
In the NFL, that usually isn't the case. Double-digit favorites haven't done well over the years and this year they are 3-3 against the closing number. (Underdogs are 46-30 overall this year).
But I can't resist betting the Steelers -13. I saw this number at 11.5 and didn't bet it then, but that was before realizing Colt McCoy was going to be Cleveland's starting QB. Once that was announced it peaked my interest.
I've never been a McCoy fan and for him to be making his first start, on the road, against the NFL's best defense makes this a must bet for me.
I love fading rookie QBs, especially ones that are projects. And make no mistake about - McCoy is a project.
Sure, he was a four-year starter at Texas, won a ton of games for them and got all the notoriety playing QB for Texas deserves. But that just tells you how little pro scouts see in him for the guy to be a third round pick.
He's all of 6-1, 215 lbs. Keep in mind that Jimmy Clausen of the Panthers was drafted 48th, 37 spots ahead of McCoy. Clausen is pretty much the same stature as McCoy. Clausen is 6'2, 222 lbs. One of the bigger problems so far for Clausen this year, not being tall enough to see over his linemen and finding passing lanes.
I don't want to harp on McCoy's lack of physical height, but other than Drew Brees, McCoy is the shortest QB to start this Sunday. In looking at what McCoy did last year in college, his numbers were very impressive. But take a further look and he faced 11 teams of which not of them ranked better than 31st. Take it a step further and take the defensive ranking of each of those 11 teams and the combined average of those teams equates to 69.
Basically, he faced defenses that were very well below the national average of 60. Now, what happened to McCoy when he faced legitimate defenses? The numbers are beyond alarming:
Against Oklahoma (eighth ranked defensive team), he was 21 of 37 for a paltry 127 yards w/ 1 TD and 1 INT. He averaged just 3.3 yards a completion.
GROSS.
Against Nebraska (seventh ranked defensive team), he was 20 of 36 for 184 yards w/ no TDs and 3 INTs. It was abundantly clear that McCoy was not good enough to play against college football's elite defenses. Those numbers against Oklahoma and Nebraska are staggering. Both those games were played on a neutral field, now he's traveling to Pittsburgh and taking on the very best defense in the NFL.
While McCoy struggled against the better defensive teams in college football, he had much better offensive weapons on his Texas team than he has on this Browns team. The Browns have zero weapons at WR. Their tight end Benjamin Watson, leads the team in receptions.
The Steeler defense is ranked fourth in total defense and first in scoring. Now they take on a Browns team that ranks 30th in scoring, averaging only 15.6 points a game.
And remember, the Browns are scoring 15.6 points a game with veteran QBs Jake Delhomme and Senica Wallace. Do either of those QB's strike fear in defenses, absolutely not. But we're talking about 2 QBs that have a combined 20 years of NFL experience. Also, those 2 QBs took the majority of snaps if not all the snaps in training camp and in practice. Other than this week, how much time has McCoy spent with the starting unit. Little, if any.
McCoy is going to make mistakes and I doubt the Browns will even score an offensive TD. If the Steelers can average 21.5 points a game with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch calling the offense, I have to think they'll be able to put up much more than that with Big Ben running the show.
Obviously we're laying a big number here, but I don't see how this game is going to remain close. Lay the 13 now because this game will close 14.
One last thing, I'm writing this on Thursday and while everything points to McCoy getting the start, if by some chance the Browns go with Delhomme I still love this bet. Delhomme was playing on one leg last week against the Falcons. He was 13-23 for 97 yards, 2 INTs and fumbled once. He's awful when healthy, even worse on one leg. There's no way he'll be able to withstand the Steelers pressure.
Bottom line, neither QB is ready for this game. Steelers win in a monster blowout.
The NFL, which is by far and away the most popular sport
in the US, is already seeing huge dividends this year. Just look at
their ratings. The Giants/Cowboys in week 2 of the NFL season drew the
highest Primetime rating for an NFL game since 1998.
But the real winner this season is of course ESPN. The sports
programming juggernaut has already seen huge ratings on Monday nights
this year. The Packers/Vikings game that pitted QB Brett Favre against
his former team set a cable viewing record, with 21.8 million viewers.
That is a sick, sick number. The previous high was 18.6 million, an
increase of 17% . That's breaking the record, and breaking it by a
lot.
Last Monday we had the Jets/Dolphins, a game for the ages. 35 fourth
Quarter points with an electric atmosphere set in Miami, a game that
was the centerpiece of the League's Hispanic Heritage Month. Future
NFL star QB Mark Sanchez, a Hispanic from Los Angeles, was featured and
I'm sure he will be attracting the Latino market for years to come.
Monday night’s game was the fifth most-watched program on cable so
far this year, and the most-watched game ever on ESPN Deportes’.
So, just in the last two weeks of Monday night football, ESPN has
broken several records ratings wise and the NFL gets more and more
exposure by the day.
As for the rest of the Monday Night NFL Schedule, we have some great
games coming our way. This week, the undefeated Broncos take on the
Chargers in what is essentially a game for the AFC West Championship,
and it's only week 6. Two weeks later, the Falcons travel to take on
the Saints in what should be an offensive display with 2008 Rookie of
the Year Matt Ryan taking on Pro Bowler and possibly this year's MVP
Drew Brees. The Pats also take on the Saints in the last week in
November. The Patriots are always ratings gold and that should gain a
huge number of viewers for ESPN. Other notable games include the
Ravens @ Packers, Cardinals @ 49ers and the season culminates with the
Vikings traveling to the Bears in a game that might decide the NFC
North. It might also be QB Brett Favre last Monday Night game of his
career. You think this game will draw many viewers?
ESPN was very fortunate to schedule the dregs of the NFL, the Raiders
and Bills, on the opening Monday night double header. Both teams
actually showed life in their defeats, but the NFL was smart enough not
to schedule them for Monday night the rest of the year. Of the most
bottom tier teams, only the Browns will be on Monday night when they
host the Ravens on Nov 16th. The rest of the schedule looks very
enticing and there is no question, this will be ESPN's best year ever
in total viewership.
Amazing, but the NFL and ESPN just keep getting bigger and bigger. And
Sportsbooks around the world are experiencing more and more betting
volume. It's no secret we book more money on the Monday night game
than any other game of the week (with the exception of the Sunday Night
game, but that can vary). Our volume will grow as the viewership
grows. It's a win, win for everyone and as a bookmaker, I can't thank
the NFL enough for a great slate of Monday night games this year.
Jim Mora calling out his field goal kicker Olindo Mare was bush league at best. First, to call out any one of your players in the media is unconscionable, but to essentially blame a loss on one particular player effectively takes away from the team concept that all coaches preach. No one individual wins or losses NFL games, teams do. That is the essence of football.
Did Mare's missed field goals hurt your chances of winning, absolutely. But did he single-handily lose the game. Absolutely not. My biggest question to Coach Mora would be, how about explaining the play calling the led to six field goal attempts? Did you call out your offensive coordinator for seeing several drives stall in Bears territory? The play calling could only produce field goals and not touchdowns? Coach Mora, do you take any responsibility for being inside the red zone twice and couldn't produce one TD? Do you take any responsibility for your team to only produce one TD in 60 minutes of football?
How about before Mare even missed those field goals, the mistake made by a certain player that most definitely contributed to the loss to the Bears. After receiving the 2nd Half kickoff, the Seahawks had the ball 2nd and 4 on their own 29 yard line. Leading the game 13-7, QB Seneca Wallace hit TJ Houshmandzadeh for what appeared to be a first down, but TJ fumbled the ball and turned it over to the Bears on Seahawks' 42 yard line. Talk about a buzzkill and a total change in momentum, the Bears converted that turnover into a TD and took the lead after 5 plays. If anything, I would attribute that fumble as the biggest play and the biggest mistake by one of your players, yet I never heard you call him out for that horrendous mistake. Did you not call him out because TJ was your organization's prized free agent acquisition? Or did you not call him out because fumbles are just part of the game. Interesting, but so are missed field goals.
What about the bone head play of your kick returner. Midway through the 3rd Quarter, the Seahawks defense had held the Bears to a three and out and forced them to kick from their 28 yard line. The Bears got off a decent punt, but nothing that couldn't have been fielded or at least fair caught, but instead of fielding the punt PR Justin Forsett lost site of the ball and let it go. By letting it go, the ball, which could have been fielded at the 30 was downed at the 6 yard line. A difference of more than 20 yards in field position, but it essentially put your team on their own goal line. There's no excuse not making the fair catch in that situation. No excuse at all, but I never heard Mora call out Forsett for what was a complete bone head mistake by his punt returner.
The following play was a horrific interception thrown by Wallace. What made it so bad was that he was trying to throw the ball away and avoid a sack. But instead of just throwing it out of bounds, he threw an inexcusable interception and gave the Bears great field position in which they settled for a field goal. Wallace's mistake wasn't physically, it was mental and that to me is more damaging than a missed field goal.
The bottom line, there were many players and coaches that contributed to your loss to the Bears, yet you called out just one player. And you called him out in the media no less. It's nice to see that as a coach, when the chips are down and the team is off a brutal loss, you're going to step up to the podium and start ripping individual players. I understand he's just a field goal kicker, but last time I checked he's still a part of the team and there will be a time you'll be calling on him to actually win a game for you. How do you think he's going to do knowing his coach has a complete lack of respect for him. I wonder how that is going to affect his confidence. Coach Mora, you win as a team and lose as a team.
Adam Schefter reported today that Texas Tech Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree is seriously considering forgoing this season and reentering the NFL Draft. All I can say is, that just won't happen. There is no way he won't sign with the 49ers and won't be signing relatively soon. Guess what happens if Crabtree goes back into the draft? He losses himself millions and millions of dollars. Millions more than the deal that is currently on the table for Crabtree to sign. I've been told by an NFL insider, that if Crabtree did go back into the draft that he didn't think Crabtree would even go in the first round. Hakeem Nicks was drafted by the New York Giants late in the first round this year, signed for $12.5 Million, of which only $6.5million is guaranteed. If Crabtree is drafted late in the first round, that's the kind of contract he can expect to sign in 2010. That's $8 Million less than what the 49ers are offering, and $10.5 Million less in guaranteed money. Obviously, there is a tremendous financial blow if Crabtree does go back into the draft.
Now, it's purely speculative that he would go late in the first round. But if you think about it, teams would be scared of drafting him because he would have already proven to be difficult to sign. "If he didn't sign a multi year, multi million dollar contract with the Niners, why would he sign a deal with us?". That will be the attitude of every GM come draft day.
Also, and this is something that I didn't know, is regardless of whether Crabtree signs with the 49ers or not, he's still the property of the 49ers. The 49ers own his ass until the 2010 Draft. What does that mean? That Crabtree won't be able to workout with any NFL team or scout without the 49ers permission. So teams won't be able to see Crabtree until the day of the draft, because up until then he's 49er property. I mean, this kid could turn an ankle walking down the street and teams wouldn't know this because they won't have access to any physical reports or workout reports. For all intents and purposes, the last time teams would have seen Crabtree was the 2009 Cotton Bowl and the 2009 NFL Draft Combine. That's over a 14months which is lifetime in the NFL, and that's a long time to not be on the minds of General Managers.
GM's are not going to be all that interested in taking a flyer on a receiver that has shown an unwillingness to sign a contract, a receiver not smart enough to sign a very reasonable offer that included $16 Million in guarantee money, and a receiver that they haven't seen on the field nor in the training room in over a year. Quite simply, there is no way this deal doesn't get done and done in a hurry.
The 49ers are coming off a very nice win yesterday. They have the Seahawks this week, a game that they're 1.5 point favorites to win. If the 49ers win that game, they're 2-0 in the NFC West with 2 straight up wins vs NFC West Cardinals and Seahawks and would have firm control of first place in their division. At that point, why would they even need to sign Crabtree as they've already proven to be competitive without him. With each and ever game and/or day, Crabtree loses his hand so to speak. Right now the 49ers have all the cards in this drawn out poker game. Reports out of Crabtree's camp is that he's starting to get nervous, and rightfully so. His time is running out and the hand he's playing can only lose. Lose him millions upon millions of dollars.