eb130's Playbook

comment 1-16 of 16 comments
eb130 says:
2/26/2013 3:52 PM
2.26.13: JD: FSU-5.5

WAKE have been very erratic. Straight off their biggest W of the year at home to MIA, they will come out fat and happy. They are just what the doctor ordered for an angry FSU team returning home off consecutive road L.

In 2 of their last 3 road games, WAKE was blown away by 26 and 25 pts. They also lost at home to a suspect GTCH team just before beating MIA.

WAKE is just 1-8 SU in road games. In 3 of last 4 road games, they failed by 13.5 or more to the number. Here are their ACC road stats: outscored by 15.6 PPG, is shooting 37.5% from the floor and AVG 14.3 turnovers (19.9 in the last 2 road games). WAKES ACC road opponents have shot 50.4% (49.6% from three) and AVG 75.3 pts (to 59.7 for WAKE)

It is a big revenge game for FSU. Considering the home team has won each of the last 4 by 18+ that will not be a problem. Yes it is two bottom feeders, but winning bets is so much situational gambling and spot play so much pts to the home chalk.

eb130 says:
2/26/2013 3:39 PM
2.26.13: JR: NEBvWISC u113

10* graded play on UNDER. Simulator shows a high probability that <100 PTS will be scored. Supporting this is a proven system posting 35-12 ATS UNDER mark since 1997.

Play under with home teams where the total is =<129.5 off a win by 10+PTS over a conf rival and is now facing an opponent off an upset win as a home dog.

NEB is a struggling offensive team, but they do play solid D. They pack the paint mostly in a 2-3 zone and they do not get many steals. They AVG just 5.1 per game, 313th.

WISC is 54-26 UNDER vs teams who AVG <=6 steals/game on the season since 1997. This is due to the fact that WISC will work the ball around the 2-3 looking to get one of the top of the key defenders out of a position and then attack the paint. If double teamed, the perimeter will be wide open. However, WISC has been largely inconsistent from the perimeter this season.

Bottom line is this will be a grinding slow-paced style of Big Ten basketball game. Take the UNDER

eb130 says:
2/26/2013 3:30 PM
2.26.13: SN: MINN+6.5

MINN was 15-1, have lost 8 of 11. It began w/88-81 L@IND on 01/26. MINN nearly came back from 23-pts. MINN was blown out in their last 2 games, @OSU and @IA. MINN have turned the ball over a combined 41x in those games while shooting 32.6 FG%.

MINN is better at home, has played a difficult schedule (17th in RPI rankings) and this is a must-win. MINN knows they need a good showing here.

MINN beat MSU and @WISC during the past 3 weeks. MSU#9 and WISC#17 in the AP. IND#1 is in a letdown spot where their motivation is not as high as MINN. IND won a hard-fought 72-68 game @MSU in their last game to give them a 2-game lead in the loss column over MSU.

INJURY: Sr F R.Williams, MINN's 2nd-leading RB and 3rd scorer, will start. IND G V.Oladipo, 2nd in scoring for IND, isn't 100% due to a sprained ankle.

This is the Big10. Desperate home teams protect their turf. MINN beat Top 20 teams at home and they can hang in here against the best.

eb130 says:
2/26/2013 3:07 PM
2.26.13: BL: Tennessee +8.5, 3*

FL is getting too much respect on the road against a TENN team that is playing its best basketball of the season. TENN come into this game on a 5-game winning streak that includes three road wins and two double-digit victories at home. TENN is a very respectable 11-3 at home this season and you can expect the home crowd to give TENN plenty of energy against a top ranked team like FL. FL is nearly unbeatable on their home floor, but they have had their struggles on the road. In their last three road games they have lost at MIZZO and ARK, with the only win coming against a bad AUB team. TENN should be able to keep it close and cash in on this large spread. Take the Points!

eb130 says:
2/26/2013 3:02 PM
2.26.13: JB: Illinois-Chicago +1

ILLCH are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record. WGHST are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. ILLCH are 11-3 ATS vs teams holding their opponents to <=42% from the field this season. ILLCH already beat WGHST back on 01/26 55-49 @WGHST so it seems unlikely that WGHST will be able to reverse their fortunes away. WGHST offense has struggled in road games averaging 60.1 PPG w/31 TR and only 7 OR. ILLCH plays well at home and they have already proven they know how to beat WGHST. Getting a free point here is a gift from the oddsmakers.

eb130 says:
2/25/2013 9:27 AM
2.25.13: DC: KST -19.5

TXTCH is just 1-6 SU on the road, lost eight in a row overall and lost 86-66 @IAST on Sat. Big game for KST in BIG12 conf, for its first ever title. Most recently KST beat TEX 81-69 on Sat. Rodney McGruder had 20 pts, and 4 players would score in double figures.

TXTCH is 4-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow <=64 pts, 5-9 ATS in Conf, and 6-11 ATS as a dog this year.

KST is 10-7 ATS as a favorite, is 8-6 ATS in Conf, and 8-4 ATS @Home.

1* on KST. Last meeting on 02/05, KST won 68-59 @TXTCH and L ATS -11. I believe KST's clear home court advantage (15-1 SU), and sheer determination is the difference. Expect the Wildcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 3:20 PM
2.20.13: TC: AZST -6.5

AZST has hit 67% ATS over their last 18 lined ballgames dating back to Dec, including a 75% ATS mark as favs of 6.5+, exactly the spread tonight.

It all starts with PG Jahii Carson, avg 19+ PPG in his last 10 contests. 7-2 C Jordan Bachynski is blocking nearly 4/game. Carrick Felix has been named PAC-12 ‘Player of the Week’ 3x this year; a double double machine. Evan Gordon and Jonathan Gilling are perimeter sharpshooters, combining to hit 4.5 3Pt/game. They’ve gotten even better since combo G Chris Colvin returned following injury absence; their best scorer off the bench.

WAST can’t match AZST's talent or execution levels on either end of the floor. The Cougars have covered 2x in last 8 tries away; just 2-5 ATS as dogs of 5+ Pts this year. They’re coming off a tough OT loss vs ORE in their last game, don’t expect a step-up effort tonight!

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 3:12 PM
2.20.13: LN: UK-10.5

In UK's 1st game without Noel (at TENN), they were pummeled 88-58! UK allowed TENN to shoot 58% from the floor, easily the highest mark against UK this season. John Calipari said following the game that several of his players “are not real coachable.” It was the worst L in the Calipari era and UK returns home to begin a 3-game homestand with some bruised egos. I don’t expect UK to be down for long and VANDY is just 10-14 (4-8 SEC) rebuilding. They have just 2 players in double figures, G Johnson (13.7) and the 6-9 Odom (10.2-4.3). VANDY is 2-5 SU in true road games, avg a modest 53.9 PPG. UK is 12-2 at home, where they have outscored opponents on avg, 80.9-to-59.8 PPG. Sure Noel (10.5-9.5) is no longer around but IMO, Calipari’s “visibly disturbed” postgame press conference didn’t fall on deaf ears. Fr Goodwin (13.6-4.5), Poythress (11.7-6.2) and Cauley-Stein (7.5-5.3) plus vets Wiltjer (11.8-4.6), Harrow (9.4) and Mays (9.4-3.0 AG) are more than enough talent

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 1:28 PM
2.20.13: BM: MEM -18

MEM class edge over the rest of the CUSA has really manifested itself in recent weeks, as the Tigers’ SU win streak has swelled to 16 (ranking behind only Akron’s 17 straight nationally).

With hard-to-conceal manpower advantages, Josh Pastner’s side is now handling inflated numbers at home, blowing out TUL & UCF in recent home tilts after dropping its previous 7 vs. the number as host. League foes having a hard time coping physically with imposing 260-pounders Tariq Black & Shaq Goodwin in the paint, while soph F Adonis Thomas (16 ppg last four) & former juco G Geron Johnson (19 ppg last four) have upped their production markedly in recent weeks. Meanwhile, HOU mostly spinning its wheels, dropping 4 of last 5 vs. the line on the road, as HC James Dickey can’t find game-to-game consistency due mostly to defensive breakdowns, which again proved costly in Saturday’s 3-OT loss at TUL. Price is steep at home, but MEM worth the risk. Play Memphis Rating-6

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 1:25 PM
2.20.13: DC: MORE +2**

This is a revenge game for MORE after it lost 66-60 to the Racers on 01/1812. MUR is coming off a 79-70 setback at EILL on the 16th. Stacy Wilson had 20 points. Dexter Fields added 14. Isaiah Canaan added 12. Jeffrey Moss chipped in 11. Morehead State is coming off a 65-63 win over TNTCH last time out. Chad Posthumus finished with 13 points. Angelo Warner finished with 12.

Note that MUR is just 4-6 ATS on the road this year, and 2-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.

MORE is just 27-20 ATS in its last 47 following a conference game.

1u play. It's Senior Night at MORE. This is in fact a double revenge situation for the home side. In last year's setback the Eagles actually held the lead with four minutes left when the Racers were 18-0 and ranked nationally. These teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by the oddsmakers. The difference is the significant external motivating factors working in favor of the home side!

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 1:20 PM
2.20.13: ML: So.Miss -7.5*

*SoMiss are a perfect 3-0 SUATS at home this year, the average win coming by 27 points. The host in this series 9-2 ATS all-time. UTEP arrives off a 15-point double-revenge win over UCF and that brings its 0-6 ATS regular-season log after jousting with the Knights into play. Worse, the Miners' mediocre 14-10 SU record this season also brings the Eagles' bully-like 14-1 SU and 8-4 ATS mark this season versus sub .600 opposition to the forefront. Either way, we look for the revenge-minded hosts to dish out more payback in front of the home faithful. Recommend a 1-unit play.

eb130 says:
2/20/2013 12:53 PM
2.20.13: FW: Cal Riverside +2

2.20.13: JB: HOU +19 **

2.20.13: RV: OAK -2

2.20.13: JR: MORE +2.5

2.20.13: JF: HOU +18

2.20.13: MF: ODU -6

2.20.13: TG: OKST-1

**You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points when they are shooting 36.5% or more from beyond the three point line against a team with an average three point defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15 games in a season when both teams are out rebounding their opponents. This system is 29-8 ATS since 1997.

eb130 says:
2/19/2013 3:37 PM
2.19.13: JR: Virg +8

2.19.13: IP: MSU -1.5

2.19.13: RB: Ind St +3.5

2.19.13: MF: BC +2

2.19.13: TG: TCU +5.5

eb130 says:
2/19/2013 3:27 PM
2.19.13: TG: Marquette -5.5

2.19.13: JD: NC St -8

2.19.13: DP: Mizz St +5.5

2.19.13: RM: Maryland -1.5

2.19.13: JB: GTech +3.5

2.18.13: RV: Pitt/ND, u123.5

2.18.13: DP: W&M +2

2.18.13: SJ: Rutgers +10.5

eb130 says:
2/19/2013 3:08 PM
2.19.13: DS: Marquette -4.0
eb130 says:
2/19/2013 3:05 PM
2.19.13: RM: Maryland -1.5, 5* Play
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