DarkHorse21's Playbook

comment 1-22 of 22 comments
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
4/12/2013 4:34 AM
Some of the best value in sports is in NHL 3-way lines. Teams that should be -160 are -115. Also, the NHL lines barely reflect goalie streaks (slumps or strong periods).
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/27/2013 6:50 AM
NHL - shortened season is a totally different animal. It lacks the 'settling down' phase that normally occurs about four months into a season.
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
4/19/2012 5:07 AM
NHL totals project 2011/2012: +22 units. Not bad.

MLB totals 2011: +53 units. Good.

Went under the hood for both. Why play anything else? Throw in a few horse races.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
2/18/2012 6:33 PM
NHL totals may be heating up. Second half of season (after ASB). Teams and players getting settled...

Similar to MLB totals. Started last year after ASB: http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread.php?s=e 3aa626aaaa5d8cb199d3fe0dd638d06&threadid=16701 0&perpage=20&highlight=Dark%20Horse&pa

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
1/29/2012 7:39 AM
Mucho Macho Man!

And what a race for Home Sweet Aspen at Santa Anita. Heart attack stuff. In a good way.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
12/27/2011 2:29 AM
The Factor coming through at Santa Anita. Good read on this horse.
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
10/15/2011 7:04 PM
Sweet win at Keeneland with #2 Together, on the turf.

Nothing sweeter than winning at the track with a race that went exactly as envisioned.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
9/23/2011 2:20 AM
My MLB season is in the books. Profit of more than 50 units.

And consistently in same range for 1000 sample size over several seasons. Steady money maker.

Few weeks off in preparation for NHL.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
6/07/2011 5:05 AM
NBA - April playoffs. TOTALS, see 'narrowing markets'.
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
10/01/2010 2:32 AM
MLB single team totals. Wow.
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
7/21/2010 6:03 PM
Soccer WC and Euro.

- Group stage. Fade teams without team concept, regardless of individual talent. Team concept is the foundation. Star players are powerless without it.

- KO stages. Team concept, generally, no longer in question. Now take 'use of space' as primary indicator for each match-up.

- Shop for futures; and trade them at right time.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
5/10/2010 5:49 PM
NBA method mentioned below is now 20-8 for the postseason.
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
4/29/2010 6:18 AM
Last season's NBA playoff totals angle is 12-5 so far. Forgot all about it...
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
4/12/2010 11:54 AM
April is here. Spring is in the air. That means a shift to baseball and horses. Gradually filtering out NBA, and throwing in a little (?) World Cup in the summer. (Start of MLB and NFL seasons good for bonus/scalping. Easy money while season gets underway).
DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
1/06/2010 7:32 PM
Each NFL season has its own nature. The trick is to be very 'awake' to the specific nature of the season in progress. This requires a great degree of flexibility.

I remember a 64% ATS season I had in a contest with 7 picks per week, and the next year I had to struggle just to stay over 50%. This, is turns out, is a common occurrence. During the 64% season I felt a tremendous grip over the NFL. I only had to look at three categories for each team. The method improved as the season progressed. By the time of the playoffs everything was crystal clear. But I had developed that method during the season in progress, and not in the season before! That, I saw later, was the key. I could hardly wait for the next season to play it again. Only to learn that this beautiful, simple method no longer worked. Not only that, but its earlier success prevented me from seeing the new season through a fresh pair of eyes. I wasn't flexible and awake. I was living in the past.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
11/18/2009 2:42 PM
http://www.drf.com/formulator/formulator_ad2.html

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/trk_report.cgi?drs

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
11/07/2009 12:49 AM
Tuscan Evening!

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/utils/flash_pop.aspx?vp=Web&vc=1&vid1=mp4:2009/771/200911061923OAD9_771.f4v

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
6/26/2009 3:48 AM
Weather angle for the World Cup, suggesting that Brazil has benefited disproportionally from summer heat.

1962 - Santiago - 33S27 (winner: Brazil)

1966 - London - 51N30 (winner: England)

1970 - Mexico City - 19N24 (winner: Brazil)

1974 - Munich - 48N08 (winner: West Germany)

1978 - Buenos Aires - 34N36 (winner: Argentina)

1982 - Madrid - 40N24 (winner: Italy)

1986 - Mexico City - 19N24 (winner: Argentina)

1990 - Rome - 41N54 (winner: West Germany)

1994 - Los Angeles - 34N03 (winner: Brazil)

1998 - Paris - 48N52 (winner: France)

2002 - Yokohama - 35N27 (winner: Brazil)

2006 - Berlin - 52N30 (winner: Italy)

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/20/2009 1:42 AM
Key: "Social dominance is the closest analogy to 'class' in a race horse.

... when a new horse is introduced into a pasture or corral, a rearrangement of the pecking order begins instantly. Rarely will a gelding come out on top. An almost certain way to drop a gelding in racing rank is to rest him in a pasture where he drops in social rank.

..... the true runners are those who BELIEVE with all their heart and soul that their place is in front. (it may not take very long to shatter that belief; every handicapper has a story of a horse he or she has followed, and how it learned to be 'polite'... ).

- from 'Handicapping Speed' by Charles Carroll

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/02/2009 1:07 AM
Mini Trends

Using motivational angles in 2009, posted plays for quarters or halves, per team. Action points show by how many points the spread was beaten on average.

CLE 5-2 ATS Action points: +7.3

BOS 5-1 ATS Action points: +5.8

PHX 4-1-1 ATS Action points: +5.9 <= ended

Also:

ORL 3-1 ATS Action points: +5.4 <= ended

DAL 0-2 ATS I never get DAL. Don't know why I even bother.

These worked well during the 'Long Midseason Stretch', when teams often struggle to maintain focus (January 1 to ASB). After the ASB there is greater focus; this is the best period for TB +OL approach, including totals. Prior to January I don't touch the NBA (too busy with football). Motivational mini-trends are a good starting point to get back into and develop a feel for the NBA in January; a way to pick up on the 'story' of each team.

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
2/22/2009 5:35 PM

"Verily, I say unto you, there is no greater gambler than the Lord Himself. For it was He who created men."

DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
1/14/2009 1:57 AM
12-5 ATS or 71% for college bowls this season.

http://www.statfox.com/playtracker/leaderboard~sportid~cfb~contestid~cfbbowl04.htm