DarkHorse21's Playbook

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
11/18/2009 2:42 PM
http://www.drf.com/formulator/formulator_ad2.html

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/trk_report.cgi?drs

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
11/07/2009 12:49 AM
Tuscan Evening!

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/utils/flash_pop.aspx?vp=Web&vc=1&vid1=mp4:2009/771/200911061923OAD9_771.f4v

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
10/20/2009 12:40 PM
On the House:

1) creatively structured arbs => winnings on

2) 2 TM RL parlays => winnings on

3) 6 TM open parlays

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
10/12/2009 5:26 AM
wagerline survivor NFL and NBA selections since start of NFL '08:

NFL sides 10-3

NFL totals 13-7

NBA sides 14-11

NBA totals 13-6

sides: 24-14

totals: 26-13

50-27 ATS or 64.9%

There are only about 100-200 high stakes ATS bets per year. These are the plays that jump off the page. The rest is hard work. In MLB play ML dog and/or RL's. In NHL play ML's. And in NBA ML's are often preferable to ATS sides.

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
9/16/2009 4:00 PM
Calendar:

NFL - September to February - 5 months - main systems (i.e. 'easy' angles).

NHL - October to mid April - 5 months - select days; butterfly effect, totals

NBA - January to ASB - 6 weeks - motivational mini trends

----- ASB to April 1st - 6 weeks - main system, TOTALS.

----- Some playoffs. Light work load.

NCAAB - March Madness - LM totals.

MLB - mid April to ASB - RED + Markov. Pass with SA/MA and poison.

Off - mid July to September - 6 weeks - some horses, some MLB.

New study: quarter horses. New angle (5/09) extremely promising!

For best results focus on one league at a time. Much easier to tune in. This is not necessary for blanket approaches (NHL). Walk away when it's time to do so. Bettors lose because they place too many bets. With enough high quality angles there's no 'need' for action.

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
6/26/2009 3:48 AM
Weather angle for the World Cup, suggesting that Brazil has benefited disproportionally from summer heat.

1962 - Santiago - 33S27 (winner: Brazil)

1966 - London - 51N30 (winner: England)

1970 - Mexico City - 19N24 (winner: Brazil)

1974 - Munich - 48N08 (winner: West Germany)

1978 - Buenos Aires - 34N36 (winner: Argentina)

1982 - Madrid - 40N24 (winner: Italy)

1986 - Mexico City - 19N24 (winner: Argentina)

1990 - Rome - 41N54 (winner: West Germany)

1994 - Los Angeles - 34N03 (winner: Brazil)

1998 - Paris - 48N52 (winner: France)

2002 - Yokohama - 35N27 (winner: Brazil)

2006 - Berlin - 52N30 (winner: Italy)

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/28/2009 1:25 AM
Quarter Horse Race (Noun) - A form of flat racing in which only quarter horses may compete and which was initially run at a distance one quarter (1/4) mile but is now run at any of eleven (11) officially recognized distances ranging from 220 yards to 870 yards; a short race run without any curve or turn of the track except in the case of hook races.
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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/20/2009 1:42 AM
Key: "Social dominance is the closest analogy to 'class' in a race horse.

... when a new horse is introduced into a pasture or corral, a rearrangement of the pecking order begins instantly. Rarely will a gelding come out on top. An almost certain way to drop a gelding in racing rank is to rest him in a pasture where he drops in social rank.

..... the true runners are those who BELIEVE with all their heart and soul that their place is in front. (it may not take very long to shatter that belief; every handicapper has a story of a horse he or she has followed, and how it learned to be 'polite'... ).

- from 'Handicapping Speed' by Charles Carroll

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
3/02/2009 1:07 AM
Mini Trends

Using motivational angles in 2009, posted plays for quarters or halves, per team. Action points show by how many points the spread was beaten on average.

CLE 5-2 ATS Action points: +7.3

BOS 5-1 ATS Action points: +5.8

PHX 4-1-1 ATS Action points: +5.9 <= ended

Also:

ORL 3-1 ATS Action points: +5.4 <= ended

DAL 0-2 ATS I never get DAL. Don't know why I even bother.

These worked well during the 'Long Midseason Stretch', when teams often struggle to maintain focus (January 1 to ASB). After the ASB there is greater focus; this is the best period for TB +OL approach, including totals. Prior to January I don't touch the NBA (too busy with football). Motivational mini-trends are a good starting point to get back into and develop a feel for the NBA in January; a way to pick up on the 'story' of each team.

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
2/22/2009 5:35 PM

"Verily, I say unto you, there is no greater gambler than the Lord Himself. For it was He who created men."

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
2/19/2009 4:34 AM
NBA = NIGHTMARE BEFORE AUGUST (when football is back).

Never Bet Again, Unless... NBA = NOTHING BEATS ANGER

This is first and foremost a motivational league. NBA season is long. Team motivations fluctuate sharply from game to game.

Example: No NBA team can sustain a top effort for four quarters. Find motivational angles that tie 1Q (or 1H) to previous game, or 3Q to previous half.

Don't look too deep. Don't stress for winning angles. The players in this league are relaxed. Take that same approach towards basketball. By understanding the 'story' (for a team), the angles should surface with relative ease.

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
1/14/2009 1:57 AM
12-5 ATS or 71% for college bowls this season.

http://www.statfox.com/playtracker/leaderboard~sportid~cfb~contestid~cfbbowl04.htm

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DarkHorse21
DarkHorse21 says:
12/31/2008 4:51 PM
Some background.

I'm a 57% ATS lifetime picker. I'm semi-retired from sports betting, focusing mostly on NFL and NHL, and spending more of my time on the stock market.

Some online records, beginning in 2005 with a 64% NFL season (70-40 ATS)

http://www.statfox.com/playtracker/leaderboard~sportid~nfl~contestid~nfltoc01.htm

In 2008 my wagerline record was 48-31 ATS or 61% (link on this page), and for soccer's euro 2008 tournament my power rankings went 20-11 or 65% for three way results (!), shown here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping-41/euro-2008-a-76422-p3.html

In 2008 I also went 32-23 ATS or 58% in football's parlay-type Beat The Prick contest, including three 4-0 weeks (out of 14 weeks total).

Happy 2009!

And remember. Lady Luck is smoking hot. Just don't buy her jewelry.

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