jwheels86's Playbook

jwheels86 says:

9/11/2012 8:49 PM

Had a big weekend. Need to post my plays here instead of just the thread

gwjtf says:

8/23/2012 12:58 AM

I agree everything w/ you re: Mullen - despite what happened last year (there is no coach in America that could have done better w/ what he had vs. what/who they had to play and where), this year's team will be a lot better. Let us see what kind of line is available (if any) game 1. Good luck Jwheels ...

GWJTF

jwheels86 says:

8/18/2012 6:37 AM

I would put a regular play on MSU in that game, not as sure as the Gators play but like I have said multiple times Mullen is a dangerous HC now that he has had success and has learned from experience like Meyer about a lot of things. He is starting to throw the ball a lot more with a throwing QB because he knows he has to back up the top defenses in the league they play in to have more success and he started doing it in the spring game. They also have to start fast with conference play starting the next week with Auburn coming in at home.. Mullen and Strong were as big a part of success under Meyer at UF than anyone and Meyer admitted as much in the recent article on ESPN. If Mullen was there in 09 the Gators would have won it all again with the same exact offense returning and Strong might take Louisville to a BCS bowl this year as well. Mullen has turned that program around that I played for instantly, would have loved to play for him….

gwjtf says:

8/17/2012 8:27 AM

Thank you for the fantastic write up on the Gators over on Ice's page, which I responded to.

One other question if you don't mind, since I believe you have a connection to Mississippi State - I'm thinking the Bulldogs are going to be significantly better this year; partly because of a better schedule (last year was brutal), and a lot of talent on the squad. Do you have opinions on the team and, if we get a number against Jackson, what would you bet it up to? Much appreciated ...

gwjtf says:

8/14/2012 8:27 AM

Holy Crap - sorry Jwheels, I thought this was Ice's page, not yours!! :) ... I just got in from London; it's 5 in the morning and I'm still on euro time and half out of it so forgive me....:)

Give me your thoughts on gators week 1 and any other games you like.

GWJTF

gwjtf says:

8/14/2012 8:24 AM

Ice - always good to read your insights - thanks for the nugget below regarding first two weeks formula....bet big chalk, lots of returning starters, against teams that don't. These factors typically go hand in hand. :)

That said, I too will be laying points against Michigan for many of the reasons Jwheels described ... anything can happen as you know, and DR may get a couple early scores that could completely change the complexion of the game, but I think Bama's overall significantly superior athleticism, defense, and Saban will produce a game that they pull away in the 2nd half and would place a standard bet on the game anything under 2 TDs.

Will be interested to know your and Jwheel's thoughts on Florida -29 in week 1.

I also love the UCLA play -- Mora will want a big win to usher in his tenure at UCLA and will run it up if the opportunity presents itself, and they have the athletes when compared to Rice.

jwheels86 says:

7/22/2012 6:04 PM

It's a good thing for once that the Gators are returning a lot of starters. The last two years have been hell for our standards..

Ice4Blood says:

7/22/2012 12:15 PM

like i said, will probably make a smaller play on Bama, simply because they are one of the top 5 teams in the country, and those teams almost always have a winning ATS record for the year, so blindly betting them every game will most likely win money...

posted my best week 1 and week 2 plays on my page if you are interested... not only returning starters, but also returning a starting QB vs. team without one... and also offensive line experience and a couple other factors, make those plays the strongest for the first 2 weeks...

Ice4Blood says:

7/22/2012 12:12 PM

i trust your opinion, and i will probably make a play... i don't ever unload on any game...

my only problem is that, this isn't the same as those other Big 10 games... against Penn St last year and against MSU, Alabama was already in full swing, experienced team... i bet Bama in both of those games... but this is a Bama team with a lot of new parts that need time to gel, while Michigan (although a bit of a paper tiger, maybe) is a team that knows how to score on offense... and they will be very hyped up for this game...

i think Bama probably covers, but i don't think at (-11) it is an incredible bargain...

first two weeks in CFB i have followed the same formula for the past 10 years, and it has never failed to win money... bet on the teams that return a lot of starters, bet against the teams that don't, and don't waste your time with the other games... if i stray from that formula and lose money i will be more pissed off than if i miss out on a game that doesn't fit the formula...

jwheels86 says:

7/22/2012 6:26 AM

Im not trying to tell you what to do but my biggest lock of week 1 is Bama minus whatever.. Look what they did to the last team they played in the Big 10, their style of play is the same and it's just an utter mismatch.. They beat MSU 49-7 and they were much better than Michigan will be, Bama is not as strong but the scheme is the same and even more of a mismatch than it was in that bowl game, Michigan does not have great defense and MSU plays real good defense and in that game it was familiar foes and was still just a complete dogging by the first quarter. Give saban an entire off season to plan for a running QB and it will be embarrassing for them when he makes them throw the ball because they will NOt run the ball on them. Expect similar to the NC game last year except LSU had WAY more talent across the board everywhere. Bama will shellack them by at least and the very least 3 scores.

Ice4Blood says:

7/20/2012 1:01 PM

here is my updated strong plays list for week 1: UCLA, USC, Ohio, BC, WVU...

other likely plays: ND, Mich St, OU, Okla St (vs. Savannah)

games i'll probably play for smaller amounts: Bama, La Tech, UCF, Tenn, Col St(?), Syracuse(?)

jwheels86 says:

7/19/2012 11:25 PM

Tennessee is the only one of those im not sure of but since that is supposed to be a good game and the line is at about a TD, I know what Vegas wants the public to do. Same exact situation with the MSU/Boise game. I will be on Bama for a good bit.

Ice4Blood says:

7/14/2012 12:45 AM

here are 6 games that i will most likely bet... can't see any angle working against them...

USC, Tennessee, Mich St, La Tech, Ohio U, WVU

will probably also play Vandy, BC... considering UCLA, Bama, LSU, Oklahoma, UCF

any opinion on these or others?

jwheels86 says:

7/01/2012 10:05 PM

Yea im watching that line, looking to play Vandy in that game if it's at 10 before kickoff.

Ice4Blood says:

6/29/2012 5:20 PM

i'm looking at a few that might be good for week 1... USC should crush Hawaii... liking La Tech and Ohio U to keep their games close (possible upsets)... WV and Nebraska are two i will probably be on... others will depend on the lines...

saw your post about Vandy... 9 or 10 seems like a lot of points to give them at home, with 6 more returning starters than SC...

jwheels86 says:

6/19/2012 5:08 AM

Not sure right now, it isn't that far from now.. Especially on Bookmaker and other sites will have them up. Looking to bet on Bama in Week 1, that is a terrible matchup for Michigan at the wrong time.

Ice4Blood says:

6/18/2012 1:05 PM

what's up JW... been doing some homework to get ready for CFB... already have a few games on the radar for week 1...

do you know when Week 1 lines get posted by the majority of books? esp. Bookmaker? seems like last year it was some time in July, but i can't remember...

Write in Fusilli-Mondo's playbook

Fusilli-Mondo says:

1/02/2012 11:05 AM

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jwheels86 says:

9/09/2011 12:55 AM

There is reverse iine movement on every game im on..

jwheels86 says:

9/09/2011 12:36 AM

I think its pretty solid, would love to get Bama under 3 and Utah St. at +28 in that one.

Ice4Blood says:

9/08/2011 3:36 PM

what do you think of this teaser? kind of like it myself...

Alabama (-4)

Utah St (+26)

had Utah St last week getting less than that without teasing vs. Auburn on the road, and now i get 5 pts more against USF coming off a big win... just need Alabama to get a TD win...

Ice4Blood says:

9/05/2011 5:18 PM

by the way, all of my bets are already posted on my page... was able to get on to BM the minute lines were posted, and for the most part got on them before anything moved...

Ice4Blood says:

9/05/2011 2:39 PM

oh yea... get on VT while that line is still under 20... i will probably bet the over in that game as insurance, but think VT under 3 TDs is a great bet! they should be able to score at least 50, maybe 60...

Ice4Blood says:

9/05/2011 2:25 PM

had a good week 1... would have been better if the WV game didn't get stopped short... week 2 card is delicious... was lucky i could jump on a few lines before they sky-rocketed... Oregon will blow the doors off of Nevada, but it has gone from 22.5 to 27 already... also think Houston will crush No Texas... will be looking to take the over in Ok St / ASU no matter what line they post on it...