manifesto's Playbook

comment 1-25 of 113 comments
gfoss59 says:
12/22/2012 5:04 AM
Love the Caddyshack avatar. "It's no big deal...."
CameronCrazieDm says:
9/02/2009 10:53 PM
What do you need from me boss? My 1 most confident game?
manifesto says:
9/01/2009 11:18 PM
thanks fish....hopefully we have similar results although I can't imagine it will be 77% again like last year....but who knows?
Fishtaco02 says:
9/01/2009 12:54 PM
Just wanted to say that I love your consensus blogs, they were so helpful last year. Can't wait for them again this season.
manifesto says:
8/10/2009 11:04 AM
gt - yes the consensus will get rolling soon...targeting Sept. 5th
gwjtf says:
8/07/2009 10:46 AM
Hey Festo - r u gearing up for another CFB consensus pks season? Who do you hope to track/include? Best Rgds...


Ice4Blood says:
7/29/2009 1:29 PM
cool... i'll keep you posted...
captailor says:
4/02/2009 4:49 PM
Hey good lookin out man. Yeah I went through a pretty bad streak of pickin winners but playing the losers. I had to stop because I didn't wanna keep losing people money

G/L on your plays, I may play baseball, not sure yet.

Kornsy says:
1/16/2009 2:55 PM

I started a small thread like you did with NCAAFB. Check it out. "Following Top Cappers 1/16/09" Its working very well!!

Jalein says:
1/10/2009 11:16 AM
I am taking B-more +3.5 buying the hook and Carolina -9 four units each
PlacinUnits says:
1/09/2009 10:21 PM me. I have an idea.
shepherd says:
1/09/2009 6:39 PM
thanks festo... i understand about not mentioning my name... glad i could be a part of it...
manifesto says:
1/05/2009 1:22 PM
NBA 1/5/2009 (16 - 16):

Miami +4

Miami ML

Milw -8.5

NBA System Plays (39 - 29):

Miami +4, Sac +4, Mil -8.5, Utah -10.5, Den -9

shepherd says:
1/04/2009 12:54 PM
i added Texas, Tulsa and Florida to my main card...
manifesto says:
1/03/2009 1:45 PM
NBA 1/3/2009 (16-12):

Mil +2

Atl -5

Hou/Atl Under 185

NJ/Mia Under 191

System Plays (35 - 26):

Mil +2, Atl -5, Indy -7, NJ +6,Minn+6, SA-9, Den -3

manifesto says:
1/02/2009 1:36 PM
NBA Picks for 1/2/2009:

Houston -4

Atl -4.5

Denver -7.5

Miami/Orl Under 189

1/2/2009 System Plays:

Houston-4, Orl -8, Atl -4.5, NY -2.5, Wash +15, Clev -12, Minn -2, Sac +9, Phil +7, Milwaukee -6.5, LAC+12.5, Utah+9, Memphis+7,Port -1.5

manifesto says:
1/02/2009 12:47 PM
There are certain situations where it is hitting 75% or higher. For example, if the actual line shows a home dog getting 5 points but I have the line calculated where the home dog should be getting 10 pts, it is 10 - 2 over the past 16 days (Atlanta and Denver would be picks tonite on this situation). Here is what I have for Friday:

Pure ATS System: Hou (55%-21%)Orl (63%-43%), Bos (61%-51%), NY (50%-50%), Clev (75%-39%), Atl(75%-30%), Minn (47%-33%),Den(56%-44%),Sac(53%-37%), Phil (44%-20%), Char(75%-70%), LAC(60%-33%), Por(41%-66%), Utah (53%-47%)

manifesto says:
1/02/2009 12:30 PM
shep - I have been tracking two systems. The one that I mentioned to you just purely looks at ATS numbers. The team with the better H/A ATS in that spot is the play. Right now that system is tracking at 65% (79 - 42). I think it might have been around 70% when I mentioned it to you.

The other system I am using has a combination of ATS percentages (Home/Away, L5 and against current game's point spread) as well as several stats including FG%, H/A point differential, rebounds, etc. and assign point values based on the degree of difference (i.e. if one team had a 2% difference in FG% that would be 1 point but if the difference was greater than 5% they might get 2 points). Also factor in home court and back to back games. With this I come up with my projected line and compare it to game line to determine what team to take. I then apply a set of rules to the calculated line vs. actual line to come up with the selection.

shepherd says:
1/02/2009 5:29 AM
been looking into your system, and just wondering how you determine the plays... is there a certain % comparing Home/Away ATS that is your cutoff, or just any winning record?

looking at Friday's games, it seems like these fit: Houston (21-11), Atl (17-10), Clev (23-11), Phil (19-12), LAC (19-11), Por (16-10)... couple others weren't quite as good, and Philly i wasn't sure about because Dal doesn't actually have a losing ATS record at home... just curious how you break it down...

my system would have: Clev, Den, Port... considering adding Orlando to the system in some form...

shepherd says:
12/31/2008 4:15 PM
yea festo... 2-1 last night in NBA... but i didn't bet Portland because Roy was out...

just a heads up... i added UConn (-4) to my main card...

manifesto says:
12/31/2008 11:57 AM
NBA 12/31 Plays (14 - 8):

Denver -1

New Jersey +6

System Plays (26 - 15):

Chicago +5.5, New Jersey +6, Milwaukee +9, Denver -1, OKC +3, LAC +3

shepherd says:
12/30/2008 5:54 PM
festo... you know i have Utah (+11) as one of my plays, right? saw you listed Alabama as (3-0) for consensus plays...
manifesto says:
12/30/2008 12:36 PM
NBA 12/30 Plays (12-7)

Portland +5

Charlotte -5

LA Clippers +2.5

System Picks (19 - 13):

Charlotte -5, Atl +1, Cleve -5. Memphis +3, Milwaukee +8, Minny +12, LAC +2.5, Portland +4.5

manifesto says:
12/29/2008 2:22 PM
NBA 12/29 Plays (11-5):

Memphis +2, Orlando -3, Utah-6

System Picks:

Memphis +2, Atl -5, Chicago +5.5, Orlando -3, OKC +9.5, Washington +13, GS +1, Utah -6

shepherd says:
12/29/2008 6:32 AM
added CFB small plays: Ok St (-2.5), Tx Tech (-3.5)... both could get upgraded along with Texas...
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