ewillie169's Playbook

comment 1-25 of 47 comments
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/02/2015 8:20 PM
"I don't want you to get the idea that nothing else matters besides coaching. A great coach can't make an inexperienced quarterback an immediate star. A bad coach may not do enough to derail his Hall of Fame bound quarterback. Ideally you want a mix of a great coach with a great team. Do we have that this year? It's tough to say because there are several serious Super Bowl contenders. I strongly believe that coaching quality will end up serving as the tie-breaker which determines who advances week by week, and who will lift the trophy over their heads a few weeks from now. " QUOTES FROM ALLEN EASTMAN
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/02/2015 8:18 PM
Do they have a reputation for aggression, or a reputation for conservatism? Aggression wins playoff games. Conservatism may help you pull one upset if you're an underdog catching some breaks, but generally keeps you from advancing more than one round. The last thing you want to do in the playoffs is lay points with a conservative coach.

How has his team executed the fundamentals? Teams with poor turnover differentials can be in real trouble in the postseason because every mistake is so costly. Teams that get called for a lot of offensive penalties are in trouble because every yard matters so much in a short game that determines your fate. Some coaches are sticklers for execution. Others let their guys play and live with the mistakes. The sticklers are better bets, particularly when getting points from the more lenient coaches.

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/02/2015 8:17 PM
Have they been there before? Experience helps a lot when it comes to coaching in the playoffs. You have to make some mistakes before you get it right. Veterans generally know what mistakes to avoid. How many of this week's head coaches, as well as the four bye teams, have been in this position before? Be very careful asking new coaches to thrive. Don't be shocked when veterans do.

Have they won before? Some coaches just hit a wall when it comes to the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer was like that. His approach worked great during the regular season. He just didn't have an extra gear in the playoffs. In fact, he's often go BACK a gear and play so conservatively that it kept opponents in the game. Look up each guy's career playoff record. Ideally, you should know their ATS records too. Guys who are poor against Vegas expectations should be avoided, particularly as favorites.

Do they have a reputation for aggression, or a reputation for conservatism? Aggression wins playoff gam

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/02/2015 8:16 PM
New England is laying exactly three points to Baltimore, meaning those teams are considered even.

Dallas opened at -1½ vs. Philadelphia, meaning that oddsmakers thought the market perceived Philadelphia as better...though early money pounded Dallas all the way up to -4.

Needless to say, if nobody's more than a four point favorite in games played on their home fields, then the teams are seen as even!

Coaches are often a "tie breaker" in close games. Sometimes it's for the better, as good coaches find a way to win. Sometimes it's for the worse, as coaches who are inexperienced in playoff action, or who rely too much on their team's talent make mistakes that cause their team to lose.

I'm not going to get too specific in what I think about the eight coaches on the sidelines this week. My analysis will play a big role, probably the BIGGEST role in determining my selections for clients. I can't give that information away for free! I can tell you the general things I look at when

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/02/2015 8:16 PM
OW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?

I've been Coach of the Year in the AFC two times. Once with the Indianapolis Colts. Once with the New England Patriots (both of whom are in the playoffs again this year). I've studied playoff football for as long as I can remember. In my view, coaching matters more in THIS round from the handicapping perspective than at any other time in the playoffs.

Why is that?

You generally have very evenly matched teams playing in the Wildcard round. The best Wildcard teams are often BETTER than the divisional champions they're facing on the road. You see that perception in Las Vegas this week. Home field advantage is worth three points:

Arizona is laying less than three to Green Bay, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard Green Bay is better than NFC West champion Arizona.

Cincinnati is laying less than three to the NY Jets, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard New York is better than AFC North champion Cincinnati.

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
12/10/2013 1:18 AM
Hey vue, it seems i run out of time to post everyweek. The playoffs are around the corner, i hope to do better then.
vue21849
vue21849 says:
12/04/2013 1:06 AM
Always enjoy reading your insightful commentary here. Nice scores on SF & Seattle this past week. I wish you posted a little more. You're much too good as a capper to be hiding elsewhere. Best wishes and continued success.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 4:13 AM
"teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-23 SU and 13-20-1 ATS, including 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long Vikings.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 12 or points, going just 5-15-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Colts look to throw a show this Sunday.

There you have it. A look at some of the more intriguing Wild Card trends and angles surrounding this year’s card." pg2

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 4:11 AM
"Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 21-11-1 ATS - including 10-3 ATS at home.

This year finds the Texans and Packers return home looking to right themselves from road favorite losses last weekend.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as ‘dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers."

M Lawrence

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 3:37 AM
"...there are elements in the stat handicapping world that emphasize yardage and yards-per-play without emphasizing the ability to hit paydirt at the end of the drive. TD’s aren’t random things that happen at the end of drives. There is a skill involved in going the distance. In college, that’s typically linked to strong running games. In the NFL, it’s more smart passing decisions from veteran quarterbacks (NFL defenses are great at forming a brick wall against a run if they know it’s coming).

When Oklahoma runs into good teams, they often move between the 20’s without getting what one would normally expect out of those drives." State Intelligence

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:34 PM
Another system: Teams that had 220 + yards on the ground more than their opponents, and no more than 27 extra rushing attempts, and kept the ball for at least 31 minutes, are 0-15 ATS the following week. The Niners fall into the system to...fading them
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:28 PM
Because of this the Niners fall into this system.....therefore, i'm going over my earlief bet and getting money on the Giants... :-(
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:25 PM
"A couple observations about this: I wouldn't include the play against game being a playoff game like the one you mentioned in 1995. You're right, the criteria fits but it should also be a regular season game. I'm assuming the reason to eliminate division games is because teams have more incentive in those games, so a playoff game would give even more incentive.

Another thing, the reason this has so few plays is also because of the 30 and 12-point limitations. Just from browsing through the years 1985-1988, if the points scored parameter was reduced to 28 instead of 30, you would add a few more wins that I saw. It wouldn't be a perfect system anymore probably, but you would produce more plays and still probably at a high win rate."

Number Freak

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:29 PM
The offence cannot keep scoring so many points game after game.

On the other side of the ball is even harder. Trying to hold NFL teams to under 13 points 3 weeks in a row is a pretty tall order.

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:18 PM
The rationale for the system: If a team performs that well for two back to back games, a letdown makes sense. Especially if they are playing a game of lesser importance.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:12 PM
GO AGAINST ANY NFL TEAM IF THEY SCORED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN EACH OF THEIR LAST TWO GAMES AND ALLOWED 12 OR LESS POINTS IN THOSE SAME TWO GAMES....."IF"....THEY ARE NOW PLAYING A TEAM OUTSIDE OF THEIR DIVISION. THAT'S IT. THE LAST TIME IT CAME UP WAS 2001, SO IT'S DUE!

1992

CHIEFS (+2 ) 24, Eagles 17.....WIN

OILERS (+6') 17, Vikings 13.....WIN

1993

Bengals (+23') 8, 49ERS 21.....WIN

1996

49ers (+6) 20, PACKERS 23.....WIN

COWBOYS (-5') 6, Patriots 0.....WIN

1999

COLTS (-4) 25, Chiefs 17.....WIN

EAGLES (+8) 38, Rams 31.....WIN

2000 Jets (+7) 21, BUCS 17.....WIN

2001 Giants (+10') 14, RAMS 15.....WIN

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
8/31/2012 2:02 AM
Let's take it to the Pay Window this year vue!!
vue21849
vue21849 says:
8/23/2012 1:00 AM
Seeing a 49er - Texans SB. I can dream-can't I?
vue21849
vue21849 says:
8/23/2012 12:58 AM
Wishing you a healthy and profitable football season! I have always considered you one of the better handicappers on the threads.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
4/22/2012 5:12 AM
"Teams generally stink the game after getting no hit. How bad? Real bad. And games go under, too" (Beyond the Bets ?via twitter)
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/30/2012 10:59 AM
Nice simple moneyline conversion calculator:

http://www.bettingresource.com/converting-moneylines-odds-into-win-probablity.html

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 10:43 PM
Your goal in sports betting should not be to bet the closing line but, rather, find value earlier in the week. If the line shifts against you by the close, you are probably on the wrong side

AndyFezzik

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 9:52 PM
Something to keep in mind for next week: John Fox is 7-2 ATS all-time in playoffs, including 6-1 as a dog with FIVE outright victories.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 9:52 PM
Something to keep in mind for next year: The 'over' has hit in every playoff game Mike Tomlin has ever coached. 8 overs, 0 unders.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
6/04/2011 2:07 PM
FezzikSports Steve Fezzik

"Betting basic strategy:If you like an Eastern playing 8pm PST, you want them 1st half! Body Clocks messed up....u want WEst 2nd hlf WNBA gm"

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