ewillie169's Playbook

comment 1-25 of 42 comments
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
12/10/2013 1:18 AM
Hey vue, it seems i run out of time to post everyweek. The playoffs are around the corner, i hope to do better then.
vue21849
vue21849 says:
12/04/2013 1:06 AM
Always enjoy reading your insightful commentary here. Nice scores on SF & Seattle this past week. I wish you posted a little more. You're much too good as a capper to be hiding elsewhere. Best wishes and continued success.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 4:13 AM
"teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-23 SU and 13-20-1 ATS, including 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long Vikings.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 12 or points, going just 5-15-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Colts look to throw a show this Sunday.

There you have it. A look at some of the more intriguing Wild Card trends and angles surrounding this year’s card." pg2

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 4:11 AM
"Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 21-11-1 ATS - including 10-3 ATS at home.

This year finds the Texans and Packers return home looking to right themselves from road favorite losses last weekend.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as ‘dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers."

M Lawrence

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/06/2013 3:37 AM
"...there are elements in the stat handicapping world that emphasize yardage and yards-per-play without emphasizing the ability to hit paydirt at the end of the drive. TD’s aren’t random things that happen at the end of drives. There is a skill involved in going the distance. In college, that’s typically linked to strong running games. In the NFL, it’s more smart passing decisions from veteran quarterbacks (NFL defenses are great at forming a brick wall against a run if they know it’s coming).

When Oklahoma runs into good teams, they often move between the 20’s without getting what one would normally expect out of those drives." State Intelligence

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:34 PM
Another system: Teams that had 220 + yards on the ground more than their opponents, and no more than 27 extra rushing attempts, and kept the ball for at least 31 minutes, are 0-15 ATS the following week. The Niners fall into the system to...fading them
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:28 PM
Because of this the Niners fall into this system.....therefore, i'm going over my earlief bet and getting money on the Giants... :-(
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 2:25 PM
"A couple observations about this: I wouldn't include the play against game being a playoff game like the one you mentioned in 1995. You're right, the criteria fits but it should also be a regular season game. I'm assuming the reason to eliminate division games is because teams have more incentive in those games, so a playoff game would give even more incentive.

Another thing, the reason this has so few plays is also because of the 30 and 12-point limitations. Just from browsing through the years 1985-1988, if the points scored parameter was reduced to 28 instead of 30, you would add a few more wins that I saw. It wouldn't be a perfect system anymore probably, but you would produce more plays and still probably at a high win rate."

Number Freak

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:29 PM
The offence cannot keep scoring so many points game after game.

On the other side of the ball is even harder. Trying to hold NFL teams to under 13 points 3 weeks in a row is a pretty tall order.

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:18 PM
The rationale for the system: If a team performs that well for two back to back games, a letdown makes sense. Especially if they are playing a game of lesser importance.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/14/2012 1:12 PM
GO AGAINST ANY NFL TEAM IF THEY SCORED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN EACH OF THEIR LAST TWO GAMES AND ALLOWED 12 OR LESS POINTS IN THOSE SAME TWO GAMES....."IF"....THEY ARE NOW PLAYING A TEAM OUTSIDE OF THEIR DIVISION. THAT'S IT. THE LAST TIME IT CAME UP WAS 2001, SO IT'S DUE!

1992

CHIEFS (+2 ) 24, Eagles 17.....WIN

OILERS (+6') 17, Vikings 13.....WIN

1993

Bengals (+23') 8, 49ERS 21.....WIN

1996

49ers (+6) 20, PACKERS 23.....WIN

COWBOYS (-5') 6, Patriots 0.....WIN

1999

COLTS (-4) 25, Chiefs 17.....WIN

EAGLES (+8) 38, Rams 31.....WIN

2000 Jets (+7) 21, BUCS 17.....WIN

2001 Giants (+10') 14, RAMS 15.....WIN

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
8/31/2012 2:02 AM
Let's take it to the Pay Window this year vue!!
vue21849
vue21849 says:
8/23/2012 1:00 AM
Seeing a 49er - Texans SB. I can dream-can't I?
vue21849
vue21849 says:
8/23/2012 12:58 AM
Wishing you a healthy and profitable football season! I have always considered you one of the better handicappers on the threads.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
4/22/2012 5:12 AM
"Teams generally stink the game after getting no hit. How bad? Real bad. And games go under, too" (Beyond the Bets ?via twitter)
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/30/2012 10:59 AM
Nice simple moneyline conversion calculator:

http://www.bettingresource.com/converting-moneylines-odds-into-win-probablity.html

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 10:43 PM
Your goal in sports betting should not be to bet the closing line but, rather, find value earlier in the week. If the line shifts against you by the close, you are probably on the wrong side

AndyFezzik

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 9:52 PM
Something to keep in mind for next week: John Fox is 7-2 ATS all-time in playoffs, including 6-1 as a dog with FIVE outright victories.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
1/08/2012 9:52 PM
Something to keep in mind for next year: The 'over' has hit in every playoff game Mike Tomlin has ever coached. 8 overs, 0 unders.
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
6/04/2011 2:07 PM
FezzikSports Steve Fezzik

"Betting basic strategy:If you like an Eastern playing 8pm PST, you want them 1st half! Body Clocks messed up....u want WEst 2nd hlf WNBA gm"

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
3/10/2011 3:24 AM
"...play against any favorite not playing at home that is already locked into the big dance. " flyingV
ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
12/29/2010 10:32 PM
"Hey guys don't forget one of the most powerfull systems know will be in effect wk17

System is really simple and makes money year after year. Bet against any wk17 dog that has already clinched a playoff spot. The system is even better if only bet against teams that are locked in place. Ie eliminate a team who is still fighting for a bye." slapshot

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
12/17/2010 6:02 AM
LONG-LINE MOVEMENT

I keep track of what you could have bet a line in week 5 and what it is now

I look at a 6 point move in the line

here is a 6 point mover

Cinn was -7.5 over Cleveland in week 5

now its Cinn -1.5

so this tells us Cleve has got better!!!

the other big move in the line

Oak was pk in week 5.... Now its -6.5

so the two game with the biggest line move of the week

Oak

Cleve

the record for this is 18-12 60%. this can be a great tool or another view of the game

ACE

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
12/09/2010 3:15 AM
Check out this site, it has alot of good cappers:

viewfromvegas.com

ewillie169
ewillie169 says:
10/29/2010 2:39 AM
"Play against home team coming off bye week and playing a divisional foe. I believe this went 3-0 last year. I did not find last year until the last possible play. HOUSTON +6 this Monday night." -- Oddball
Comments:  1 2