Pendo's Playbook

comment 1-25 of 35 comments
Pendo
Pendo says:
12/08/2014 9:42 AM
Yeah Buddy!! My previous post turned out to be the case: Wisconsin laid down totally;

Geo-Tech could've won if the fix wasn't in; Iowa St. had many excuses for laying down.

Pendo
Pendo says:
12/06/2014 9:06 AM
Conferences rep bigger than any one team, excepting the SEC:

Just like 'Zona laid down for the sake of the Pac-12 last night,

can see Wisky, Iowa St. and Georgia Tech laying down today;

Mizzou not necessarily because SEC and especially 'Bama have Rep locked-in.

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/24/2014 8:29 PM
52.4% := most crucial # in sports betting, b/c when betting w/ std 10 cent juice ($110 wins $100)

52.4% := W%age (min) to make even the slightest profit.

52.38% is the break-even point [w/ std 10¢ Over-round or Vigorish].

Hitting 54-55% means u can make a living offa Sports

A recent study of over 40,000 NFL & NBA outcomes =

When betting on NFL Favorites:

6% of all games came in at 1 point less than the final spread

4.6% of all games came in at 1 point more than the final spread

Thus almost 11% of all games fell w/i 1 pt. either way of the spread.

Further into these #'s: if u get a line w/ just 1 pt in yer favor then u add between 4.6% - 6% to expected winning-%age.

When betting on NBA Favorites the difference was even greater:

6.6% of all games came in at 1 point less than the final spread

5.8% of all games came in at 1 point more than the final spread

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/22/2014 7:32 PM
Play under the posted total for MLB road teams coming off a S.U. loss where they were shut out over the first 6 innings.

This system is 241-289-31 UNDER for a profit of +2390 units, including a perfect 0-5 Under the last five qualifying contests.

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/20/2014 3:51 PM
One ought to fully disregard the incompetent, irrelevant and immaterial opinions of (sans moi, svp) any and all always-above-average Americans on Football;

USers are under the impression that what I'd call

'Fake Rugby in Leotards with chest- pads and matching Motocross Helmets',

wherein actual play action (running, etc.) is of a mere 13 minutes in duration for an entire game,

is the only "real football" there is in the whole world.

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/19/2014 12:15 PM
Since 2004 the NFL is 0-20-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) as a dog in Week One

when the team was eliminated from the playoffs in the 1st round last season,

so long as the total is higher than 37...

a few games match this trend...

the play is to fade the Pack and the Bengals, interesting b/c Pack is 1st game....

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/14/2014 4:27 PM
Road Fave w/ a poor charity-stripe-%age covering the spread is rare
Pendo
Pendo says:
7/13/2014 4:25 AM
***** DEUTSCHLAND *****

!!!!! Deutschland über alles !!!!!

Pendo
Pendo says:
7/12/2014 7:52 PM
1st Q Clips cash.
Pendo
Pendo says:
7/04/2014 11:02 PM
E$PN is from the east, meaning NY & Boston will be assured of winning titles

in U.S. Sports.

Because Sports is entertainment,

so there's no fair play, so it's not fair,

no unbiased officiating.

I've seen so many players in the semi-pro ranks who are quite obviously

better than "the Pros";

even seen a number of dynamic players playing regularly in pickup games

in Public Parks who are better than "The Pro's".

But regrettably it's not the very best person for the role who lands the job -

too often it's the suckups, the family-friends and fiancees who always

"luck out" and get the Part that really pays in Plays

put on for money

because THAT'S ENTERTAINMENT

Pendo
Pendo says:
6/24/2014 8:20 PM
WC 2014

België tegen Duitsland

déjà vu

WWI

1914 tot en met 2014

Pendo
Pendo says:
6/24/2014 7:21 PM
Panga Keo Mojo ain't workin' this year (after many a glorious season)

- thinks it's the Parity -

MLB's need for CA$H means just about every team

(excepting those no-chance-for-audience squads like SD,

nor sucker fandom joints like Phillies & Cubbies)

will miraculously manage to stay in the hunt to make the Playoffs,

and thereby fill up the stands with fan$.

Pendo
Pendo says:
6/19/2014 8:26 PM
Boston’s Jake Peavy in June away team starts is

1-7 his last 8, and

5-12 in his last 17 ,

including 5-14 in his last 19, and

0-4 with a 7.63 ERA the last four.

Tonight take Oakland

Pendo
Pendo says:
6/19/2014 7:23 PM
PLAY ON any college home dog or favorite of three or less points with rest in Game Two of the season that won seven or less games last year if they are hosting a non-conference foe off back-to-back wins.

ATS W-L record since 1980: 10-0 (it doesn't get too much better than that in NCAAF)

Process Rationale: Home teams benefit from a week of rest in Game Two of the season, particularly those hosting non-rested non-conference opponents arriving off back-to-back wins.

Previous Play: Miami Fla (Won)

The Canes trumped Ohio State 24-6 in convincing fashion, holding the Buckeyes to only 209 total yards !!

Pendo
Pendo says:
6/06/2014 4:48 PM
Useful Stat from irage dB:

Here is an interesting stat.

Teams previous game they were ahead after 5 innings, but lost the game.

The next game they won.

2014 = 33 - 1

2013 = 72 - 3

Pendo
Pendo says:
5/29/2014 8:47 AM
Betting Baseball Bias 26-V-14

HOT!

Tor 11-of-13 icl. week 6-0 w/ 5.17 runs/game + pitchers' 2.5 per/game => +$724.

StL 5-1 L7, 9-2 L11

SF 4-1 L7, incl. a 21-8 stretch = MLB top 32-18 => +$1380

Oak 4.9 runs/g + 2nd best staff-ERA 2.9

COLD!

Red Sox 0-10 => -$1192 skiddish team

Det went 1-5 w/ 4.5 per/g but hurlers @ 8.67 runs/g

Homeys

Home fav's only stinky 303-243 overall => -$2687.

Dead-spot := -$1.50 to -$1.70 range: 58-46 => -$1629.

But, big chalks of = -$2.00 are 18-2 => +$1337.

Indiv.team: SF as home fav 16-7 => +$665

w/ Bos 10-16, -$1147, T.B. 12-12, -$538, LAD 8-10, -$758 fades as home fav.

Home-dogs

Home dogs suck:

D-Backs (3-9, -$515), Cin(1-6, -$495), NYM (5-10, -$391), Tex (1-5, -$389) = NFG

Conversely, Miami 8-3 as home-dog => +$603 — but road-dog only 6-14 => -$619

Pendo
Pendo says:
5/29/2014 8:47 AM
(...Continued from post above) Betting Baseball Bias 26-V-14

Other noteworthy trends:

Best 'Over' Situation:

Minn 16-8 away

Milw 16-9-2 away

Mia 17-7-4 home

Best 'Under' Sit:

ATL 17-8-3 @home

Milw 17-6-1 @home

Pit 12-6-2 away

Best/Worst Opening a Series

SF (12-4) 7-1 @home

Arizona (4-13) 1-7 @home

1 Run Loss

COL (8-1), Milw (5-1)

after 1 Run Win

COL (0-8), Cin (1-7)

after being blanked

Cin (4-0), SF (3-0)

Tex (0-3), Arz (1-5), Cubs (1-4)

vs Lefties

Det (10-2), Mia (10-4)

Ariz (3-8), TB (5-10), Hou (5-12)

Interleague

SF (6-0), Milw (5-1), LAA (6-2), Tor (5-2)

Phil (1-8), Cubs (2-6), Cinci (1-4)

Pendo
Pendo says:
5/28/2014 9:29 PM
I've a Wagering Wish to compile Ump Stats for ea. team re:

Strikeouts: Called [i.e., 'caught-looking'] Vs.Swinging Strikeouts

Also, above totals for Team Vs. Team thru the Ump's eyes.

These figures can be most telling for wagering purposes.

Still, without bicorporeality, it'll take collaboration,

for these stats are nowhere to be found!

NBA's 3 (occas. 4) Refs divide up dishing out Home-cooking,

compared to MLB having that good ol' Home Plate Umpire

who impacts the Game's result more than any other sport; and,

the Called Vs. Swinging S.O.'s stats are NOT kept,

save by a few folks at the park and/or working for/with MLB.

Takes a collaborative effort in order to determine Umps' built-in bias:

Need the #'s for Strikeouts per Team, (and team vs. team):

Called (i.e., "Caught-looking") Vs. Swinging.

Thing is, I can only tally this up on a game-by-game basis on my own. 

Thence, this plea for collaborative assistance.

CHEERS!

Pendo

Pendo
Pendo says:
5/28/2014 8:37 PM
As of 28-V-14:

S.F. lead the Majors by far in scoring a run in the 1st inning: 41 games !!!!

Great wager to make!

PROVISO: Stay clear (or reverse the wager) for the "Sure Thing"

e.g., today's Ed Jackson & Little Tim Lincecum

both of whom currently give up tons of early runs;

thus their matchup yielded NO RUNS SCORED IN 1st INNING!

Thanks for reading/commenting; I wish you continued wagering success!!!

Pendo
Pendo says:
8/10/2013 8:05 PM
Parks hard to homer in (as of August 2013):

1. Mia

2. StL

3. Pit

4. SF

5. LAD

6. Atl

7. Arz

Parks for homers:

1. Milw

2. Phil

3. Cin

Pendo
Pendo says:
8/10/2013 2:20 PM
The super-7 ballparks of 2013: Pit, Atl, Det, Bos, TB, Cin, Oak

= each team's at least 15 games over .500 at home in 2013

Pendo
Pendo says:
8/02/2013 9:30 AM
Bet on any winless NFL team that's at least 0-4 coming off a bye and getting DD points.

Over the last 20 years this trend is 21-2 ATS.

elliottdgreat
elliottdgreat says:
7/30/2013 2:41 PM
Hello there, Pendo. Didn't see your friend request sooner than I would have liked to have seen it. I'm Elliott and i'm basically applying a reading technique to picking our everyday rigged sports game, lol. Been trying different perspectives out in the reading. Applied something newly researched and tested last night going 7-1 in the contest. I can assure you I went back over that 1 loss. It's a game I know I rushed reading though it seems it may just be the game that showed me how to identify and read middles for future games.

I also rushed the read on the COLORADO/BRAVES game and feel I was kind of lucky. I wasted no time after the last game was over and compared all the "reading" material and realized I believe I hope to have finally found what a middle looks like in structure, lol.

Anyways, its Tuesday afternoon and actually looking at the CUBS to middle their game with MILWAUKEE and taking a chance at picking the under here as that's what the read seems to say. Later.

Pendo
Pendo says:
4/09/2013 7:15 AM
Minny 5-0-1 ATS na a SU defeat: an emerging under-the-radar trend.

Char 23-43 —> 28-48-1 ATS —> same ratio results..

Orl as double-digit road dog results in 12-5 ATS.

Wash at home = cleanly ahead.

///

Phx, Phil, Por packed it in for yr.

Pendo
Pendo says:
2/18/2013 3:32 AM
NBA #'s:

Opening line of 3 = dog covers

opening line of 6 = fav covers.

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