Pendo's Playbook

comment 1-25 of 45 comments
Pendo says:
5/04/2015 11:12 PM
46-50 LAC/Hou 1st game @ half score:

High NBA totals ( = 207) that for some reason score a really low 1st half (=96),

always go over the posted 2nd half total !!

Pendo says:
1/28/2015 2:28 AM
Bulls beat GS War's twice - 1x in reg, 1x OT — Noah inadvertently tipped in GSW's last second shot in regulation time

Without 3 starters: Leading scorer & defender, Jimmy "Buckets" Butler //

and without their leading 3-pt shooter and starting small forward Mike D. //

and their NBA Defender Of The Year 2014 Noah hobbled to half-speed //

The Bulls really looked on paper to have no chance of repeating what they just did on the road to the Spurs and to the Mav's //

Not to a 19-in-a-row winning team like GS War's who lost at home only once (against the reigning champs and early in the season) //

so I cannot blame Brackson13 betting $100,000.00 on Covers against DRose's revenging, b/c GSW beat him in his dangerous Chi-town.

Pendo says:
1/15/2015 10:30 AM
CBB: Taking the 1st half loser in the 2h — winning at a phenomenal clip.
Pendo says:
1/05/2015 3:14 PM
Lines & Rotation #'s get delivered to sportsbooks:-

sportsbooks' oddsmakers doctor lines accordingly

as big books try to get close to predicted outcome,

special doctoring for special events (mnf, SB &c).

It makes too much sense, as a quality public fade,

that a 4-20 road team will find their will and way to

cover on Saturday Night to help bury the public

on any typical weekend action.

Lines are released to the public, & the experts hit first,

timing precisely the lines' release, working in 2 ways:

1. "sharps" identifying weak lines & pounding value;

2. organized triads (mostly asian) push lines opposite

of EV, to clean up just before game-start (albeit, at the

risk of juice attempts to middle it. They're "wise guys."

Thus, what looks like RLM one can't say for sure

unless the moves of lines & %ages are watched

for a goodly period of time, like 6-12 hrs watch,

then not until a few minutes b4 the game b/c

that's only time real big $harp side bets come in.

Pendo says:
1/05/2015 3:11 PM
If a line does not move or moves opposite to

what = 59% of public support would dictate, 'RLM'

or 'reverse line movement' in 2 flavors happening:

#1 = books purposely move the line against the $

trying to make a side they need bets on attractive

b/c of lopsided bets books try for an even up; or,

#2 = big $ from a small # of sharps who bet

on outcomes opposite to the public betting trend.

Thus, don't play every game w/ RLM, only 1's U

think have lots of 'smart money' behind them.

E.g., 100 sharps bet $1M on side-A, while 900

square chalk-players bet side-B to the tune of

$500G on Side-B, one sees 90% of Joe Public

supporting side-B, they'll be RLM vs. the 90%.

Surest RLM= =70% Pub$ on Fav of = 5 pts

Books helpless to balance their action, well then

calls do get made, they're redirected, and in the

End, the real wise guys step in in order to make

damn sure the books do not take a massive hit.

Pendo says:
1/05/2015 1:16 PM

Its TV ratings were just a tick under the TV ratings of NFL's Playoffs


This crushes the much maligned (and oft times, righteously) "BCS."

So combine those powerful double-digit TV ratings

with what TCU did to that (formerly) National-Number-One ranked

and member of the much vaunted SEC

Ole Miss, and the 4-teamer CFP

must and should and most probably will

expand to five teams.

Say, the #4 seed pitted against the #5 squad,

with the victor getting CFP's #1 ranked team.

Pendo says:
1/05/2015 12:31 PM
The Tried&True best wager in Sports Investing is the STRAIGHT BET.

And yet very profitable Parlays & Teasers turn up at times. Half-pts, too

With FreePlay monies, Parlays are the only way to go, pref. 2-Teamers.

Bet Teasers if a game's competitively close, NOT if a side's really liked;

when a side's liked strongly, wager on it by placing a Straight Bet.

Play ONLY 2 teams max, and choose 6 points (i.e., +/- 6pts);

Std Two-Team Teasers with magic# between 3pts to 10pts (iff # is right) —

E.g., turn the 10pt chalk into a 4pt fav; 6pt home dog becomes a pick'em;

turn the 3pt road-favorite into a 3pt underdog.

For NFL, buy the half-pt only on the key#-spreads of 3, 4, 7, and 10 pts.

Pendo says:
1/04/2015 10:47 AM
OSU was motivated seeing Wisc & Mich St. beat NCAAF's best teams - No. 1, No. 5 and No. 19 - all in 1 day.

"There's a perception out here," Urban Meyer said, "I'll tell you when I think the tide turned a little bit when Wisconsin beat Auburn. Everybody on our team knew that. I made sure they knew that." "When Michigan State came back and beat an excellent Baylor team. And maybe our old Big Ten's not that bad. Maybe the Big Ten is pretty damned good. And it's certainly getting better." "So, there's no doubt that when we saw Wisconsin beat Auburn, that was a major, major moment for us getting ready for this game. Also I watched the end of the Michigan State game. And we were pulling hard for them. And then our players, you should have seen their face, man, they knew. They knew."

"It's a great win for the Buckeyes & it's a great win for the Big Ten,"

GeoTech's coach goes, "...and at least for a week or two we don't have to hear about the SEC." SEC was so dominant over this past decade

Pendo says:
1/04/2015 10:28 AM
Urban Meyer & Chip Kelly have had a relationship since Meyer was at Florida, and have talked about everything from plays to how to run a program.

Kelly's gone from Oregon, but not his offense in Eugene. Kelly & Meyer bounced offensive ideas off each other — there's bound to be some overlap in concepts & philosophy. Which offense wins out? Vs. 1 common Mich St. =

Ducks: 491 tot yards in 46-27 win on Sept. 6, '14. Mariota threw 318 yards & 3 TDs, Ducks outscored Spartans 28-3 in 2ndHalf.

OSU: 568 tot yds. in 49-37 win on Nov. 8, '14. J.T. Barrett 300 yds, ran 86 & 5 tot TDs. OSU had 268 rushing yards.

Pendo says:
12/23/2014 2:46 AM
That 52.4% is the most crucial # imaginable when it comes to sports betting,

is indubitably incontrovertible & indisputably incontestable,

moreover unquestionably unassailable & unarguable;

whence, betting w/ std 10 ¢ juice ($110 to win $100),

52.4% => 53% := min winning %age yielding the very slightest of profit,

since 52.38% = the even-steven, even-up-prop break-even pt [std vigorish in play].

100 wagers/mo., where ea. W gains 2.532766% (7.71% * 0.9346)

AND ea. L deducts 2.71%...

Starting w/ 1k, hitting 53 bets + loses 47...

by month's end, BR sees 3.5% added; 12 mo. adds 51.1%,

20 yrs = $4,000,000.

Pendo says:
12/08/2014 9:42 AM
Yeah Buddy!! My previous post turned out to be the case: Wisconsin laid down totally;

Geo-Tech could've won if the fix wasn't in; Iowa St. had many excuses for laying down.

Pendo says:
12/06/2014 9:06 AM
Conferences rep bigger than any one team, excepting the SEC:

Just like 'Zona laid down for the sake of the Pac-12 last night,

can see Wisky, Iowa St. and Georgia Tech laying down today;

Mizzou not necessarily because SEC and especially 'Bama have Rep locked-in.

Pendo says:
7/24/2014 8:29 PM
52.4% := most crucial # in sports betting, b/c when betting w/ std 10 cent juice ($110 wins $100)

52.4% := W%age (min) to make even the slightest profit.

52.38% is the break-even point [w/ std 10¢ Over-round or Vigorish].

Hitting 54-55% means u can make a living offa Sports

A recent study of over 40,000 NFL & NBA outcomes =

When betting on NFL Favorites:

6% of all games came in at 1 point less than the final spread

4.6% of all games came in at 1 point more than the final spread

Thus almost 11% of all games fell w/i 1 pt. either way of the spread.

Further into these #'s: if u get a line w/ just 1 pt in yer favor then u add between 4.6% - 6% to expected winning-%age.

When betting on NBA Favorites the difference was even greater:

6.6% of all games came in at 1 point less than the final spread

5.8% of all games came in at 1 point more than the final spread

Pendo says:
7/22/2014 7:32 PM
Play under the posted total for MLB road teams coming off a S.U. loss where they were shut out over the first 6 innings.

This system is 241-289-31 UNDER for a profit of +2390 units, including a perfect 0-5 Under the last five qualifying contests.

Pendo says:
7/20/2014 3:51 PM
One ought to fully disregard the incompetent, irrelevant and immaterial opinions of (sans moi, svp) any and all always-above-average Americans on Football;

USers are under the impression that what I'd call

'Fake Rugby in Leotards with chest- pads and matching Motocross Helmets',

wherein actual play action (running, etc.) is of a mere 13 minutes in duration for an entire game,

is the only "real football" there is in the whole world.

Pendo says:
7/19/2014 12:15 PM
Since 2004 the NFL is 0-20-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) as a dog in Week One

when the team was eliminated from the playoffs in the 1st round last season,

so long as the total is higher than 37...

a few games match this trend...

the play is to fade the Pack and the Bengals, interesting b/c Pack is 1st game....

Pendo says:
7/14/2014 4:27 PM
Road Fave w/ a poor charity-stripe-%age covering the spread is rare
Pendo says:
7/13/2014 4:25 AM
***** DEUTSCHLAND *****

!!!!! Deutschland über alles !!!!!

Pendo says:
7/12/2014 7:52 PM
1st Q Clips cash.
Pendo says:
7/04/2014 11:02 PM
E$PN is from the east, meaning NY & Boston will be assured of winning titles

in U.S. Sports.

Because Sports is entertainment,

so there's no fair play, so it's not fair,

no unbiased officiating.

I've seen so many players in the semi-pro ranks who are quite obviously

better than "the Pros";

even seen a number of dynamic players playing regularly in pickup games

in Public Parks who are better than "The Pro's".

But regrettably it's not the very best person for the role who lands the job -

too often it's the suckups, the family-friends and fiancees who always

"luck out" and get the Part that really pays in Plays

put on for money


Pendo says:
6/24/2014 8:20 PM
WC 2014

België tegen Duitsland

déjà vu


1914 tot en met 2014

Pendo says:
6/24/2014 7:21 PM
Panga Keo Mojo ain't workin' this year (after many a glorious season)

- thinks it's the Parity -

MLB's need for CA$H means just about every team

(excepting those no-chance-for-audience squads like SD,

nor sucker fandom joints like Phillies & Cubbies)

will miraculously manage to stay in the hunt to make the Playoffs,

and thereby fill up the stands with fan$.

Pendo says:
6/19/2014 8:26 PM
Boston’s Jake Peavy in June away team starts is

1-7 his last 8, and

5-12 in his last 17 ,

including 5-14 in his last 19, and

0-4 with a 7.63 ERA the last four.

Tonight take Oakland

Pendo says:
6/19/2014 7:23 PM
PLAY ON any college home dog or favorite of three or less points with rest in Game Two of the season that won seven or less games last year if they are hosting a non-conference foe off back-to-back wins.

ATS W-L record since 1980: 10-0 (it doesn't get too much better than that in NCAAF)

Process Rationale: Home teams benefit from a week of rest in Game Two of the season, particularly those hosting non-rested non-conference opponents arriving off back-to-back wins.

Previous Play: Miami Fla (Won)

The Canes trumped Ohio State 24-6 in convincing fashion, holding the Buckeyes to only 209 total yards !!

Pendo says:
6/06/2014 4:48 PM
Useful Stat from irage dB:

Here is an interesting stat.

Teams previous game they were ahead after 5 innings, but lost the game.

The next game they won.

2014 = 33 - 1

2013 = 72 - 3

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