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One of the questions I get the most is about halftimes....and believe me if you master halftimes, you may consider not making a bet until the half.
Halftime wagers are great for nailing middles as well as protecting what could be a bad bet and I want to share with everyone 2 situations that you should look for and these two are all you need to make good money betting at the half.
Situation #1 - The Underdog is leading at the half and the Favorite gets a "cheap line"
Lets say that Team A is a 7 point favorite and is trailing by 10 at the half. For a team like this, the favorite, the line should be close to the original spread or higher if the powers that be creating halftimes believe that this team is going to make a run.
If the game were tied, as a bare minimum they would have to be at least -4 (just over half the original spread.) Most of the time, in our above scenario, you'll see a line of -7 to -10, or higher at the half but lets suppose you see -3. Think about the logic....you've bet a team at -7 and they are down by 10 at half so the friendly sportsbook feels so bad for you that you're losing your wager they want to give you .a chance to get your money back...right? I mean who wouldn't want to take a team that was -7 and bet them at +7.....that's basically what a -3 halftime would equate to. Do you really think, especially if the public has heavily bet the favorite, that the sportsbooks are just going to GIVE YOU AN OUT? No way that is a big fat trap and a -3 halftime in this situation is an AUTOMATIC play on the dog if you're going to play at all.
Always keep your eyes out for the "too good to be true" halftime line on the favorite.
Situation #2 - The favorite is covering the spread by nearly double or more and they are still the favorite at halftime. This little puppy got me a nice little halftime parlay last weekend and is one you should definately keep in your arseanal. I'll give you 3 examples from last Sunday's NFL.
Carolina up by 21 at half and the halftime comes out -3. Now if you bet Carolina at -9.5...why on earth would you take them at -24? Obviously the sportsbook people are DESPERATELY trying to lead you AWAY from Carolina.....if they don't want you to bet it.....it's probably a winnner and obviously Carolina was a 2nd half winner.
NY Giants up by 20+ at the half and open up a favorite. They are already covering by 2 touchdowns and they are still the favorite??? needless to say, you know that one turned out...a big fat winner.
Arizona -2.5 for the game was up by 10 at the half and the public was strong on Buffalo. Halftime line was Arizona -1 or pick. If you had Buffalo, this looks like a gift right? I mean who wouldn't want Buffalo +10 in this game......the sportsbooks doubled down and sucked the public in hook line and sinker as Arizona was a runaway 2nd half winner.
If you really get a grasp on thses two scenarios you will greatly improve your bottom line in sports betting......Always ask yourself at the half......"Who do they want me NOT to bet" or if the public is very strong on the game are they "does it look like they are giving the public an EASY OUT"
These two scenarios show up in NCAA Football and Basketball as well as NBA and NFL.
Good Luck and happy halftime hunting
9/26/08 - One of the ways that I handicap NCAA Football is using a
formula given to me by a prominent line maker in my casino biz days and
I calculate what the lines SHOULD be. Then when the lines are off by a
significant amount ( 4 or more points) combined with other factors
like strong public betting on what appears to be an "easy" line we
usually have a good play.
Each week I'll post the F'd up line of the week. Hopefully we can all make some money
9/27/08 - The Play.....Illinois +15.5.....Penn
State should have been -27 but instead the opened just below a key
number at -13.5 and it sure looks easy to take Penn State. It's
either christmas in September or somehow Illinois finds a way to make
this a game. Close your eyes and take the Illini.