I don't have a play on this game (obviously, as I don't think there is a line out anyway but I feel like we can start discussing it. The fact that I am a huge Patriots fan aside, this has to be the game of the season from an implications standpoint. Both teams are 9-2 and with each team continuing to win I'd say its fair to assume that this game is basically for the AFC East and a first round bye. Even bigger though is that the lose will be stuck with the 5 seed and almost definitely a trip to SD to play a dangerous team that nobody will want to see in the post season. For all the good each team has done this year and all of the narrow escapes (Pats getting by with sketchy pass D and the Jets winning at least 2 games (some would argue more then 2) that they shouldn't have) one team will be resting in week 18 and getting ready for a week 19 game in their own backyard while the other goes to SD to lose. Yes, I said it, whoever goes to SD to play whether its the Jets or the Pats will lose. If whoever gets the 5 seed is lucky enough to have the Chief's hold on to win the division then God bless them but I believe it will be SD.
You'd have to think this line will be right around -4. Patriots are home with the revenge angle and are such a different team from when these teams played in week 2. The Jets have been winning but playing uninspiring football. They should have lost at least 2 of the games that they have won of late but managed to pull through. The Jets have to be thinking about what a blessing it is that they are still tied for the division lead and that they need to step up for this game. The truth is if the Jets win this game then everyone forgets about their lack luster performances against the Packers, Lions, Browns, Texans and Bengals (despite the score not being close they still looked blah). The Patriots have fought hard and grown as a team while maintaining a sparkling record, however, it all will almost be a waste if they lose this game. This game decides who has a real chance to make a deep playoff run. In a year where no team is that much better then the other home field will mean everything.
In my humble opinion I think the Patriots pull it off a win. It will be the square side, I know, but Hoodie and Tom in a season defining game with everything on the line with a revenge angle is about all you could ask for. I think Hoodie as his coaches use the extra time to prepare just a touch better then Rex and his guys and that will be the difference.
Not often that we get a game that almost means more then early rd playoff games in week 13. Enjoy it boys
Thoughts on the line? thoughts on the outcome? lets hear it!!!!
Alright guys, I've got a discussion topic for the board. A lot of us have been doing this for a while and more specifically been hanging around this board for a while. I have been trying really hard to commit more time and effort to not just individual game picks but more so the process in which I go about handicapping these games. I think we would all agree that a variety of aspects going into capping games such as but not limited to the quality of teams, injury, weather, venue, the situation of the team (do they need a win/are they unmotivated), travel schedules, and lastly the good old "gut" feel. I suppose that is what I want to discuss. I have found myself time and time again in situations like tonight. I personally thought the Redskins were a great play tonight. I was an inch away from placing a fairly large wager on them. I had them available to me at +3 (-130), ML or alternative line which I believe was -3.5 (+190) or so. I had settled on +3 and literally just had to push confirm. I didn't push it. Many times before in this situation (live home dog in a divisional game is a spot I like) I have pulled the trigger without hesitation but not tonight. Tonight I hesitated. Some sort of internal bell went off in my head and said "I know you like this play but something isn't right" I laid off and played the under for $150 and lost. Sure I lost, however, I lost about 10% of what I was going to wager and truthfully it didn't have a huge impact on me. I saved myself from a big loss and and I am thrilled. In the past i have gotten burnt in spots like and won a fair share as well. But here is the million dollar question: How do we as handicappers take measures to minimize these land-mines going forward. Probably twenty guys who post quality picks and give good insight were on the Skins tonight and this was by all accounts the smart/sharp/informed side tonight but it was a total dud. So when is the obvious too good to be true and when is the obvious just something we shouldn't question and roll with? I understand that nothing is 100% but all I am looking to do is improve myself as a handicapper and add a dimension to my thought process. I am not someone who purely fades the public or purely bets the "obvious". I made my picks based on all the above stated criteria but I just never would have bet the Giants tonight. It just wouldn't have entered my thought process. So to you folks who had the Giants, can you please share some insight? What indicators did you see that made this play right for you? Please bear in mind that I put care into this thread and would appreciate that you don't write "the Skins suck" or "i just bet the better team". I am looking for some real ways to expand my thought process and do my best to see something next time that I missed this time.