Off to UFC 100 in the AM, should be a blast as always. Golf, gamble, drink, strippers and UFC.....man o man life is good and people talk about the economy ??? Not in my world.
This is a very very interesting card and has the potential to be a HUGE $$$ maker for smart players. There are some WAY WAY WAY ridiculously overpriced favorites on this card that should clearly be favored but not by anywhere close to the numbers they are currently posting. I am going to riding the underdog train (as usual) and hoping to see some of these way overpriced favorites take a fall. Below are the writeups.....(will probably post more detailed write ups on the plane but this gets you my plays) those of you that want to contact me have the #, those of you that don't have the number don't need to contact me.........best of luck with your plays and enjoy the fights. PEACE OUT
Lesnar - Mir
I am taking Mir at +180 ....... after watching Lesnar's win against Randy for the 100000th time I am more and more convinced Mir wins this fight AGAIN. Lesnar lost round 1 to RC and if not for outweighing him by 70 pounds in the ring that night I don't think he beats RC. I have no problem with Lesnar and am certainly not a hater I just don't get why Mir doesn't get any love......prior to the motorcycle accident he was the heavyweight champ and very dominant he has now worked his way all the way back and the resume of fighters he has beaten in the past 3 years is as impressive a list as anyone in the game. He just isn't lound enough, party enough or have enough tatoos to get the attention but I would challenge anyone to come up with a fighter who was beaten more top flight people in the last 3 years than Mir. Still being able to get him at + money is a huge gift in my opinion.
St. Pierre Alves
This fight is pretty simple to me, if it stays on their feet Alves deystroys GSP and will KO him very early. If it goes to the ground GSP will dominate. I just am not confident in GSP ability to get the bigger stronger fighter to the ground. I think Alves strength negates GSP's speed. I truely see this fight as about as close to even as you can get thus I am taking the dog because that's where the value is. If you with a book you can get prop plays best bet for this fight is to not go past round 3, as I think 1 way or another it will be over early.
1 of 2 favorites I will playing on this card is Hendo. I don't give Bisping much of a chance here as I see Henderson outclassing Bisping in just about every aspect of the fight other than trash talking.......people forget prior to getting caught in a rear nakes choke by Anderson Silva Hendo dominated round 1 of that fight winning on all 3 judges scorecards. He has a granite chin (just ask rampage) and Bisping will get deystroyed on the ground. If you can't knock him out and you can't go to the ground with him I am not sure how Bisping will win. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY without this fight being in the UK Bisping has NO SHOT at picking up another Matt Hammil decision. If you have a book with props I LOVE this fight to go the decision as I think this one definetly ends up in the judges hands on the scorecards.
There are 2 fights on this card that the line is just an absolute joke and this is 1 of them. Due to his drug suspension and numerous injuries to include his knee injury Bonnar has fought exactly 3 times since UFC 62 and looked awful in his last fight against Jones. TRUST me when I tell you Jones is not nearly as good as Bonnar made him look and Bonnar was just awful that night.
There is nothing about Marc Coleman I love except for the fact Bonnar struggles with wrestlers on the ground and between being slowed from his knee injury and just having ring rust I see Coleman being able to get this fight to the ground and having a pretty easy time pounding out Bonnar for the victory. Bonnar should have been a -180 favorite in this fight but at close to -350 I am ALL OVER Coleman to pull the upset. Score 1 for the old guys.
Akiyama should win this fight fairly easily as Belcher has been outclassed by much worse competition. That being said I am putting a small play on Belcher as history has proven something happens when K-1 and Pride fighters get into the cage for the first time. Different rules, different environment and most have come out losers to far inferior competition. Call this somewhat of a shot in the dark but at +225 on Belcher I am willing to take the shot.
Favorite # 2 for me is right here.......Kim wins this fight easily. After dominating Karo for most of his last fight int he ring he got a very very raw deal on the scorecards and lost a tough decision to Karo that was later declared NC after Parysian was busted for juicing. Kim was very impressive in that fight and controlled the pace and showed incredible takedown defense and balance. Grant has little to nothing on his feet and will struggle to mount much offense against Kim.
Cmon folks......get real please. Look I was at the Jones Bonnar fight, I actually played Jones for the same reason I am playing against him right here.......THERE IS NO WAY a guy making his 3rd fight in the ring should be a -500 favorite. Just ridiculous !!!!!!
He has many many many offensive skills but is also very 1 dimensional and lacks any substantial defense. O'Brien is a solid wrestler who has been in the ring against the like of Andre Arlovski, Heath Herring and Cain Velasquez and now he is almost +400 against Jon Jones a community college wrestler and a complete unknown prior to the fight against a Bonnar ???
Outside of the impact on my wallet I hope Jones wins this fight as stylistically he is very entertaining to watch and I love his attitude but at this price he is ripe for the picking by a fighter with much more experience against much better competition.
I am playing Danzig here in a pretty sizeable bet. I think he has the better stand up game and ground game and I am not sold on Miller when going against what I would consider an intelligent fighter. I think Danzig learned a lot from his outing against Guida and should be very accustom to Millers style and I don't expect to see him struggle much at all.
THERE YOU HAVE IT ..... TRED WITH CAUTION FOR THOSE OF YOU RIDING THE FAVORITE TRAIN.......THOSE OF YOU THAT KNOW ME KNOW I AM VERY REALISTIC WITH MY POSTS AND PICKS AND OFTEN TIMES GAUGE THE STRENTH OF THE CARD. THAT BEING SAID I LOVE THIS CARD AND HAVE A VERY HARD TIME SEEING THE ABOVE BEING A LOSING NIGHT AS I BELIEVE AT A MINIMUM 2-3 OF THE DOGS WILL WIN BASICALLY GIVING ME A FREE ROLL ON THE OTHERS. BUT I GUESS THAT'S WHY THEY CALL IT GAMBLING.