VF: Visiting Favorite
VD: Visiting Dog
HF: Home Favorite
HD: Home Dog
2HL: 2nd Half Line
1HT: 1st Half Total
GT: Game Total
QD: Qtr Score Diff: 2Q score – 1Q Score
D2HL: 2HL – 1HT: Diff in 2nd Half Line vs 1st Half Total
DGTL: GT/2 – 1HT: Diff in ½ the game total vs 1st Half Total
The Chaseable indicator is for the whole category (VF, HD, etc...)
Leading at half: Rules Play
VF : D2HL <= -1 & -3< QD <=3 : Over
15p/67% Not Chaseable (too erratic)
HD: D2HL b/w -4 & 5 and DGTL > -6 :
HD: QD >-4 and DGTL > -6 : Under
VD: abs(QD) >
16 : Under
15p/73% ** 2x bets on these - Chaseable
VD: 11 <= Abs(QD) <= 16 : Under
HF: Only bet when Diff score <= 10pts (this is for all HF)
4 : Under
***note on these. QD <= -4 are about 57%, not great.
But it's rare that 3 lose in a row. About 2 out of 75 in '09, so I include them.
HF: DGTL > 12 :Under
One last note, any overlap is a 2x bet for me. So HF where DGTL > 12 & abs(QD)>=4, doubles.
My 2H system plays:
a) Play 2H Under when a home team is covering the spread by more than 100%
b) Play 2H Over when a home fav is covering by more than 19pts
c) Play 2H Fav when Game's Away Fav is winning or losing ATS by > 19pts.
found these scenarios come in fairly well in the 2nd half of the season
up to the bowls.
However, also found that ALL 2H system plays are trendy.
i.e. There may be 2-4 big weeks and the others are b/w 40-60%
Lastly, because the trends above are usually > 60% winners, I will chase losers. ie. Noon games profit < 50%, 3:30pm bets double... Same for 7pm games (quadruple if 12 & 3:30 games lose, double if just 3:30 games lose)