So we had a long day at work in the rain and decided to cap out a few games. A few people pointed some games out then things got creative.
We call it the "I saw the odds on Pineda and it made my Dick Harden so then I ran into a girl and then I tried to Fister but then I ended up beating my Wang while riding the D-Train on my way to the Beachy.
That's degenerate for a Seattle-Oakland-Detroit-Cubs-Cincinnati-Atlanta 6 team parlay. Which is English for problem gambler.
$5 to win 337.18 though. Sign me up.
So this morning I went for a run. On my Ipod I happen to have every song that ever appeared in Rocky movie, because I'm "that guy". The song "Living in America" by James Brown came up and it immediately reminds me of the scene in Rocky 4 when Apollo Creed enters the ring before his bout with Drago. He is flamboyant, cocky, and things this whole thing is gonna be a breeze. Then I started thinking, that's basically the same way the Heat were at that Arrival Party in Miami.
Then I really got to doing something thinking these two events compare. Let's cast the key characters of the series and movie real quickly. Now the one difference will be the protagonist and antagonist will be reversed. There are some other slight modifications but bear with me.
Drago- Dirk
Drago's Trainer- Carlise
Russian Diplomat- Mark Cuban
Creed- The Miami Heat
Rocky- LeBron
Creed's Trainer- Spoelstra
Adrian Balboa- Chris Bosh (Kinda annoying, really has nothing to with anything, but still comments and people still pay attention)
So let's get to the fight. While Heat are busy with their Living in America spectacle, Dirk is waiting in the ring cold and silent. The fight starts out much like Game 1 and 2, with Creed dancing around and slipping shot in here and there against Drago. Kinda like how Miami for a little had control of everything. But what's really happening is Drago and his trainer are feeling out the opponent and trying to figure out how to attack. Suddenly the trainer much like Carlisle starts shouting out commands as Drago just starts landing big punch after big punch knocking Creed out of sorts. Kinda like how Dirk has just been hitting big shot after big shot (and you can't tell me his presence on the court doesn't attribute to his teammates knocking down open 3's) and now the round ends. Drago is going after this too hard and Rocky's trainer is yelling towards Drago's corner "this is supposed to be an exhibition". Tell me you couldn't see Spoelstra yelling at Carlise something similar for how bad Carlisle is handing into Spoelstra in that category. That brings us to right now wow were at Dallas 3-2.
Creed is in his corner still thinking he can pull this off, not wanting submit which is admirable. He is over matched but won't admit it, much like I feel the Heat are. Meanwhile Chris Bosh and Adrian Balboa are just watching in horror, and there's nothing they can do.
Now the one thing is that Rocky can stop this fight. Just like LeBron can stop this beating that Drago is putting on them.
But we all know how the fight ends, and I think it is how this series is going to end. The 2nd round will be like the 4th quarter of Game 6. Drago is mad and wants blood, as does Dirk. He will be making shot after shot like Drago lands blow after blow. Creed's trainer will yell to Rocky to throw the towel, just like how Spoelstra will have to tell LeBron to score the ball. What happens, Rocky freezes and doesn't throw the towel, kinda like how LeBron will freeze and not shoot the rock. Then it will be too late as Dirk/Drago will land the fatal shot. Creed/Heat is dead. Mavs in 6.
Don't be surprised if Dirk accepts the MVP and says "I cannot be defeated" "I beat real champion." I'm pretty sure after Wade and LBJ mocked Dirk he wouldn't mind saying about the Heat "If they die, they die"
I think there is a good chance to net a profit in fading all the Big East teams ATS on the opening weekend. There are 11 teams from the conference in this tournament. Yet I have been seeing the posted total for the Big East total wins at about 15.5 with over being at about -140.
With 11 teams in, and all the hype surrounding it, I think this is the books way of telling us they don't value the Big East. This is especially alarming since in 9 out of the 11 First Round games the Big East is the higher seeded team. There are even some circumstances where Big East teams can meet in the 2nd round and guarantee another win for the total....and yet that number is still 15.5.
I think a smart play for the first round would be to take the Big East opponent in all 11 First Round games. With straight bets across the board on a standard -110 vig, 6 wins would net a 4.5% profit.
7 wins would net a 23.6% profit, 8 would be 42.7%.
I feel almost certain I can get 6 covers, pretty confident I will get 7, and hoping to score big and hit 8 or more.
I'm just saying this because the past 3 winners are Byron Scott, Mike Brown, and Scott Brooks. Scott had the runner-up (and arguably the real) MVP, Brown had the MVP, Brooks had the runner up. Fast forward to present day and Scott is gone, Brown might as well be, and for some reason I have a feeling when this Oklahoma City team really makes a run at things Brooks will not be there.
It seems more time than not, the Coach of the Year can be closely linked to the MVP, but not so much towards the title. I mean here we have in the early 90's MJ winning (or derserving to win) every MVP, but Phil Jackson only getting coach of the year once. Same can be said about Pop in San Antonio.
Aside from Hubie Brown in Memphis during the 03-04 season I can't really think of many times a coach has really made a team better than it actually was, which is what coaches are supposed to do.
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The second I saw Troy Polamalu go down last week, I knew I was losing the Pittsburgh game. I can't begin to emphasize how big of an effect he has on a game. In hindsight though, I should have realized no matter what Cincy is way to be good to be getting 7 from anyone in this league. I have a feeling this is going to be a crazy week for betting with all these higher spreads and home underdogs. On with the picks.
Jacksonville -8.5
I live very close to Buffalo, so I know this team very well. I even used to consider myself a fan (the firing of Jauron might spark some interest, and a complete front office overhaul). That being said, the Bills defense is absolutely gutted with injuries. Two backups will be starting at DT, which also means lack of depth at an important position. The Bills even have DB's playing OLB these days, and even the secondary has its own wave of injuries. Can MJD break 200 rushing yards in this game?
Green Bay -6.5
The battle of the 2005 NFL Draft! I think Aaron Rodgers will be able to handle this highly touted matchup. I'm not sure how many of you have enough self-hatred to have actually watched the 49ers game last week, but I did. It does not bode well for a team when they get 6 turnovers, have allowed 6 points, and STILL have to hold the opponent at the goal line. Aaron Rodgers does not throw INT's like Cutler, so the 49ers better bring some offense. Not sure if Alex Smith is the one to provide it.
Tampa Bay +10.5
I mentioned this last week, but the home team owns divisional games in the NFC South. Go ahead, look at the numbers for yourself. Seemingly flying under the radar is how average Drew Brees has played the past few games. Something about this Bucs team now that Freeman is starting, where it seems the team is having fun out there. Saints are down some players this week and have been weak against the run lately. Look for a Cadillac sighting, and the Bucs to be in this game.
San Diego -Whatever ( off on most books)
I will continue to back Philip Rivers, as he has been winning me a descent amount of money lately. You never know when he will go all PHILIP RIVERS!!! These two teams are going in opposite directions and I don't see any reason it will change. The Charger offense has been in sync, and the departure of Chris Chambers has meant the emergence of Malcolm Floyd. Don't think the Denver offense will be able to keep up, especially if Orton is down.
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 19-9