With the Australian Open right around the corner ... I thought that I would share my thoughts and strategies on betting tennis.
One of the most important aspects of betting is to have the best lines available and to have every bet be an option. Unfortunately alot of books don't carry every variety of tennis wager and also have different rules when it comes to grading. Tennis wagers are tradionally money line wagers- spread wagers- over/unders and set wagers. If your serious about betting tennis you want either a book that offers all of these options or you need a combination of books that do. Also the rules for retirements/injury vary from book to book. Its a good idea to have diffrent books that include a wide variety of retirement rules... these are: 1 ball in play- 1 set complete- 2 sets complete-full match complete. These will give you a wide variety of strategy options ex: If you know a big favorite is hurt... play the dog at a 1 ball in play book...if the player retires you win.
Capping tennis matches:
Having a basic understanding of the sport is huge. Rankings and seeding in tennis don't hold form at the rate of team sports such as basketball and football. Its important to remember that tennis is played on four surfaces: grass-clay-indoor harcourt and outdoor hard court. Its common for players to have an expertise on some surfacesand weaknesses on other. Its because of this of why the seeding or ranking format can be a misleading statistic.
Watch matches when you can.... is no replacement for watching matches as sometimes data and results can be misleading. Its important to remember that often tennis matches can be decided by 1 or 2 points. Also by watching matches you begin to learn the strengths and weaknesses of players. Its also important to remember that certain styles do well versus some and against others they often struggle.
Resarching match-ups is soemthing every tennis bettor should do... are alot of good sites out there for researching matches... I will not list any here out of respect for Covers. At these sites you can see head to head results- previous tourney results- past matches. This data can help confirm what you see with your own eyes.
Injuries and motivation are two of the most difficult things to cap in sports...and they happen in tennis alot due to the nature of the sport. When capping any match you should always be checking the health and form of your player. Form is a term for how well your player is playing entering the match. You also want to check the health and form of your opponent... going against injured or struggling players is usual a good idea
Are alot of ways to bet tennis... really its up to you as a bettor to figure out what strategy best fits your personality. I always advise new bettors to use a notebook and paper and track plays for 1-3 months. If you can show a profit over that amount of time you might be ready to invest real money into it. Better to lose fake units than it is real money.
Heavy chalk is a strategy you see alot of tennis bettors play. They risk the $2000 to win $100 thinking Murray can't lose to Donald Young...and then they get the reality check when he does. Betting heavy chalk is a strategy that takes patience and a cast iron stomach. The question to ask yourself is whether that extra $100 is worth a three set match that makes you pace and makes your blood pressure rise. Its a strategy I highly discourage...especially on the WTA side of things
Parlays are another popular method when it comes to betting tennis. Instead of laying that $2000 with Murray you can add a few other matches to get your risk down. Parlays are often a good bet in tennis but must be played with discipline. Look to form parlays that payout 1 to 1. You can do payouts less than that but I would avoid parlays with larger payouts... its important to tay patient and not be greedy.
Another popular strategy is playing dogs. Dogs hit at a higher rate in tennis than in other sports. They are alot less risky and can be very profitable if done correctly. When betting dogs its best to look for certain situations.... such as:
1.Fading an injured player
2. Betting dogs the week before a major
3.Betting dogs in smaller corrupt tournaments
The above situations are just a few possibilities... but what do they have in common? motivation. Top players are not always motivated to win and you need to look for those situations to profit from it.
A good bettor keeps his/hers options open. The vast majority of my plays are situational plays and/or low underdog plays. If I do lay chalk its typically less than -200. In circumstances that I like chalk... I try and formulate parlays that payout between .5 to 1 on my money.
I'm also not a volume player... I think quality beats out quantity. In betting its in my opinion better to be selective than it is play every match. The more matches you play the bigger advantage you give the books... stick to your strongest plays.
Last but not least is search for info... injury reports...tweets from players...anything that can give you an edge. Places such as Covers should be used to gather information and to compare and contrast perspectives. Happy wagering
p.s. Am sure I left out alot of things... give me a break as I didn't want to write a novel
Interesting match-up between two team with contrasting styles. Memphis comes in with hopes of playing at a fast pace and getting the score in the 80's. Michigan comes in with a stout defense hoping for a game in the 50's.
Dictation of pace will be huge in this game. Other than Hardaway jr. I think Memphis has a huge edge in athleticism. Michigan hasn't been great on the boards and if Memphis plays hard they could generate fouls and offensive rebounds.
Michigan has to limit touches and has to hit it 3's to have a decent chance.
I think the Memphis athleticism will trouble Michigan on the offensive end and I think Michigan can limit touches by running clock and protecting the ball.... add the early start and I like the under here.
Am rolling under 61.5 1st half...I am hoping for a sluggish start from 1 or both teams... good luck everyone
When the line came out I suspected we would see a large % of people on Wisky. Honestly...whats not to like about Wisconsin?
Russell Wilson is a talented and athletic QB who is playing behind a huge offensive line and has a running game that rivals the best in football.
The defense has been dominate giving up about 10 pts. per game.
Couple of things to consider:
Who has Wisconsin played? Other than Nebraska at home...they have played little teams they could dominate physically on both sides of the ball.
Michigan State hasn't played anyone either... they are 100% over-rated... however... they have shown a large improvement from earlier in the season. Gholston and Worthy and the MSU defensive line has the ability to put pressure on the QB and has the speed to trouble Wisky.
The biggest aspect of this game will be the play of Kirk Cousins. MSU has the talent on the outside to exploit Wisky. MSU has struggled to run the ball all season and will need him to make the throws he is capable of. Cousins is a better passer than Wilson...if the oline can give him some time he has the ability to make throws...the question will be can he get support from his run game?
Another thing to consider is this will be the 1st real road test for Wilson and the Badgers. Big difference between Northern Illinois and Spartan stadium at night on national tv. I don't think you really understand a team until they prove it on the road
The Spartans played Wisky in a similar spot last season and dominated the game for the most part. MSU isn't as good offensively and Wisky is... but I do think MSU is much better on the defensive side of the ball this season.
MSU has also beaten the Badgers 3 straight at home as dogs.... MSU typically plays well in night games at home.
I do think Wisky is a better team on paper...just remember games are not played on paper. I think Wisky wins this one but i'm not sure a blowout is going to happen.
After the Notre Dame game I would have said bet the farm on Wisky here... but MSU has shown improvement and I do think the defense is solid...not top 5 solid...but capable of giving teams fits...especially at home.
I suspect this line will rise over the week... should be a very public play. Will see how high it goess before making a decision either way.. good luck everyone