line moves in opposite direction of public bets ( and we all knwo the public are morons)- show the over in MIA game and the under in the spurs game. Since the unde ris liie 15-5 ATS so far in this year playoffs (tighter Defense, nationally televised games and more casual bettors betting favs and the over, I might stay away from an over game, but if any game will go over , it might be MIA- keep in mind this is historically a 55-60% ats move to follwo smart money so Im thinking both or at least one might hit but theres very little change (in fact anout 1/5 chance that both will lose)
However, I think spurs will cover and kill at home, which makes the over and the spurs go together, so Im confused,
basically, when your confused I go with the smart money and willl be riding MIA over and SAN ANTONION under and no spread picks since there is no smart moeny indicator
http://www.sportsinsights.com/nba-betting-trends.aspx
MLB
1. Betting agaist the public for any team in the MLB = ~70 to 100 units per year, so set up a monkey to do this for you and you will likely make money though no one knows if the future wil mirror the past
2. All HT (home teams) <50% public bet = 20-70 units/season
3. And HD<25% of public bet %= +10 units per year (equals a 60% ATS Win rate- which is hard to achieve in any sport)
4. <30-35% cutoff (which seems to be the cutoff for most sports)= 24 units in 2011 half way through
5. At <40% of public bets= 35 units per year of ~54.5% ATS equivalent and about 0.03 units/game
6. Fading the public at the 30% level gives 25units per year and most of those units come in june and july, visiting teams did better at the end of the season
7. THE BEST ROI (return on investment)- going against the public with a 10 moneyline move in the opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS return, indicates sharp or smart money, you don’t need to know anything about the teams just follow smart money, this will result in fewer games, but don’t worry you’ll actually make money gambling per historic trends. Any team <50% with 10 moneyline move in opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS and 0.1 units gained per game
8. MLB visitor <30% makes money too
9. HD <35%=55%ATS
10. HD<30%= 59% ATS
so I summed up a lot of info from the free articles from aporst insights, it works and I think I might use their service (im not affiliated with them at all) but Ive made money using the info below and I never make money gambling, hope you can use it:
Summary of Long Term ATS percentages when betting agaist the public bet in various situations:
- In almost all situations betting against the public can give you no worse than 50% ATS even when doing this blindly (in non moneyline action). Betting agaist the public in the most lopsided games (80% of public on one side usually hits above or at 50% but only in certain situations- there fore blindly doing this will lose $$ in the long term with juice factored in
MLB
1. Betting agaist the public for any team in the MLB = ~70 to 100 units per year, so set up a monkey to do this for you and you will likely make money though no one knows if the future wil mirror the past. This I believe only worked like 1 or 2 years buy jsut betting against the public (which isnt always betting underdogs, you have to look at the public bet % at the websites below to ge tan idea
2. All HT (home teams) <50% public bet = 20-70 units/season
3. And HD<25% of public bet %= +10 units per year (equals a 60% ATS Win rate- which is hard to achieve in any sport)
4. home or away team <30-35% cutoff (which seems to be the cutoff for most sports)= 24 units in 2011 half way through
5. At <40% of public bets= 35 units per year of ~54.5% ATS equivalent and about 0.03 units/game
6. Fading the public at the 30% level gives 25units per year and most of those units come in june and july, visiting teams did better at the end of the season
7. GOOD WEBSITES:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspx
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html
http://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php
im not done yet, more to come