Look, I posted that when I first joined this website. I also posted that I could be around .800 "If I really tried". That is a really bold statement, I know. The truth is that I believe it. Now I am not going to sit here and tell you all that I have this great fantasy wisdom. The truth about betting on sites like this is that they use the spread. Most of you know that the spread ISNT about putting a number at the 50/50 mark but is actually about where to put it where the betting over and the betting under will be roughly equal. That is why the "lines move". Vegas gets too many people betting for the Vikings over the Packers, then they drop the line a bit so that more people start betting on the Packers. Never think that you know something THEY dont in vegas, you just need to know more than OTHER BETTERS. Sometimes you can get insight on what is a good pick based on if/how/when the "line moves".
Okay, I am boring myself now. If you are a "serious gambler" you already know this. Also, I have been drinking and am bored with what I am talking about. I am not sure If it is even making sense as I am typing it, I just know what I am trying to say.
My 2 cents worth is this... DONT make a pick until you are ready to. I am HORRIBLE at this. I will make a pick every day that I remember to get on this site and have the opportunity to make a new pick. Dont be afraid to take time off. Also, look at it this way. You dont have to know the 5 best opportunities of the day, just ONE "sure thing" a week. A huge disadvantage IMO for me is that I LOVE baseball. I also know that Baseball, even straight up, is usually only 60/40 who is going to win. Did you ever notice that this website doesnt put EVERY game up? That is because SOME GAMES are easier than others. They put on games that are roughly 50/50. That does make it harder. EVERY TIME you see an "easy pick", DONT think that you know more than they do. I assume this site is close to vegas, or off of vegas numbers, but you should be around 50/50 if you NEVER WATCH A GAME OF ANY SPORT... That is just how the sports gambling thing works.
If you take your time and Make ONE PICK A WEEK i will GUARENTEE half of us would be winning more hats and sweatshirts (is it possible to have you guys KEEP my hats and when I hit three, you just send me a sweatshirt? I have NO desire for a hat, but WOULD wear the sweatshirt).
Anyway, I am not a savant. I just know that gambling is not built on restraint. That is a large part of the reason casinos make money... With most people, if they lose and have no money left, then the casino took their money... If on the other hand, the person wins (assume it is 50/50 win lose, which it isnt but for argument sake), when someone wins, they dont stop up 2 grand, they keep gambling all weekend until they lose whatever they gained. If you go to vegas with a grand to lose, you lose it you are done... you WIN, you just gamble longer. I have been to Vegas 4 times. I only lost money once... the first time. The last three times I was there, I broke even.... COMPLETELY EVEN.... as in, I paid for gas (lived in PHX) paid for my hotel, and paid for food, with what I won. I had the same couple hundred bucks left when I left that I had when I arriaved. Once I got ahead, I took out what I brought. The rest of the weekend I just used as "house money"
Okay, I got off on the point, but if you want to win, all it takes is restraint. I have not bought a lottery ticket since I turned 18, about 18 years ago. Get rich quick isnt easy, its impossible. SUPPLEMENTING is not "easy" but is easily possible. My "bookie" used to ask me years ago, "why do you always bet a 5 team parlay, you always get like 4 right, why not bet single games". (actually my friend was the middle man, the bookie was his friend). Anayway I said, I dont care about winning $20 bucks here or there, I want $100 for my $20 bet. Foolish I know... but that is how poorly my restraint works...