Utah
team analysis: Utah is a team I consider myself an
expert on. The Jazz entire game plan is to protect the paint and attack the
paint. Jefferson has arguably the biggest bag of tricks in his post up arsenal
that I've seen from a 4 or a 5 in the league this far. The guy is playing
phenomenal on offense and defense. He is the focal point of the Jazz offense
and they force feed him the ball. He's got jump hooks, up and unders, a solid
midrange jumper, as well as many double moves and pump fakes. Paul Milsap helps
space the floor beautiful as the other big and his jumper has been wet all
season. His hustle and rebounding prowess give Utah one of the better frontcourts
in the NBA. Milsap also has a fade away, a step back, and can score on the perimeter
or on the block in multiple ways. Favors and Kanter off the bench are both very
strong players. They hit the boards hard
and have really developed throughout the year. They have shown post moves and
made plays that they weren’t making earlier in the year on a consistent basis. You
won't find a better 4 or 5 combination of the bench in the entire league in my
opinion. Having 4 players to rotate really helps Utah solidify the paint on
offense and protect the rim on defense for an entire game. Milsap’s post
defense is elite. Almost Chuck Hayes like. He has really quick hands, is adept
at not allowing other posts to get good position, and contests shots but at the
same time being careful not to foul. Harris was terrible earlier in the year
and is really the main reason the Jazz have struggled at times. Recently
however he has looked very good and seems to have come around-especially with
his shot. He isn't a playmaking PG-his job is to slow it down, get the offense
in the right sets and get the ball to the playmakers. Utah likes to play slow
and once they are in their set he becomes just a spot up shooter. They
occasionally run a few plays for him on offense but that’s it. Raja bell has a
couple plays ran for him now and then but for the most part he is a spot up
shooter used to space the floor, and a defensive specialist. Hayward is the
glue guy for the jazz. His defense and passing are one of the main reasons the
jazz have been playing so well lately. Other teams elite small forwards and
shooting guards keep trying to go 1 on 1 on him since he’s white but he has
consistently made plays and held his ground defensively. Off the bench Burks,
Miles, and Josh Howard all play very tenacious defense and pressure the ball
well. They also DONT settle for jumpers as much as in the past and they
are furiously attacking the rim/paint area. Earl Watson has actually ran the
team better than Harris this year at times and you can definitely tell why he
is a captain. He too has been attacking the rim and making very good decisions
with the ball. Make no mistake- This Utah Jazz team is 10 DEEP. They really struggled
with rust and chemistry issues early which explains their first 3 road losses.
They are an entire different team now. I expect them to be one of the better
road teams this year because they attack the paint and dont settle for jumpers,
have a very deep rotation where everyone is happy with their roles, and they
play slow. No one on Utah tries to play “outside of their selves.” Their shot
selection and ball movement is elite. They have no weaknesses in their
rotation. They like to play half court ball and run their plays/ get the ball
to their posts. They CAN play fast, but they prefer to play slow. Their style
also leads to them drawing lots of fouls which should translate into success. I've
talked about their strengths- now for their weaknesses. Utah's starting 2 (Harris
and bell) and Watson off the bench are going to struggle against teams with
multiple quick guards. Watson, Bell, and Harris dont have the lateral quickness
to keep quick guards from getting by them. Also, because of their propensity to
force feed the bigs and attack the rim, teams that have great interior defense
could negate this and give Utah trouble. Clippers
team analysis: The Clippers are strictly a pick n roll team. They run pick
n roll 75% of the time and don’t use sets or plays all that often. The only
exception is iso post plays for Blake when the matchup calls for it. Jordan is
an elite shot blocker but has no role what so ever on offense other than to
rebound and occasionally catch a lob. Griffin’s is extremely quick and
powerful. He has developed some post moves and can destroy weak post defenders
or slow post defenders. His jump shot is very inconsistent but is improving. He
can occasionally knock down a long jumper. His defense has improved throughout the
year as well. Caron is a seasoned shot maker. A veteran capable of creating his
own shot and knocking down big/clutch shots. He occasionally drives but most of
the time is a jump shooter. Obviously Paul is the guy who makes the offense
run. Don’t really need to talk much about what he does everyone knows. I will
say that the clippers are a much better team when cps3 looks for his shot and
scores often. Chauncey can drive, shoot
the 3, midrange, and even post up on smaller 2 guards or point guards. Mo
Williams is another clutch shot maker and a guy that can create his own shot. He
pretty much is the entire bench as foye is very inconsistent from a shot making
and playmaking perspective. Mo Will has been playing elite basketball lately. Gomes,
Evans, Cook, Jones are pretty much all garbage bench players. The clippers are
going to absolutely murder teams that cant defend the pick n roll well. Teams
that lack good interior defenders/rebounders could have trouble containing blake
or boxing out deandre Jordan. They take lots of 3s and jumpers but because of
their veterans they are capable of making a lot of them. Some of the clippers greatest
strengths are their greatest weaknesses as well. The ball doesn’t move a lot. Its
constantly in pauls hands and this can take some of the other players rhythm
away. Caron, and Chauncey frequently take bad/quick or contested jump shots.
Caron especially. The bigs cant consistently shoot so teams can sag off and it
takes an element away from the offense. Often times there is no ball movement
and the clippers are all just standing around. Because of their poor shot
selection they are an above average home team and a below average away team (more
jumpers are going to go in at home for obvious reasons) They have no bench other than mo williams and
have zero frontcourt depth. When their backup bigs are in the game its
basically 3 on 5 or 4 on 5 on offense and everything they do is guard oriented.
It becomes predictable. They really struggle to get good shots or move the ball
when paul is out. Mo Williams playing out of his mind has sort of covered up
that fact but even mo takes a lot of contested jumpers. Hes been making them
but at some point (probably on the road) I expect him to cool off. The matchup: Raja bell is out and that’s
a good thing from a matchup up perspective. Howard will replace him. Howard and
Hayward are playing defense at an elite level defensively this year. Also
because of their size this negates one aspect of the clippers and that’s Chauncey
posting up. He wont be able to on these guys. From a quickness perspective both
howard and Hayward are quick enough to keep butler and Chauncey in front of
them. Harris 1 on 1 defense against a
quick guard isn’t good so on paper it looks like cp3 will torch him. But
because the clippers run the pick n roll so much this fact is somewhat negated.
The way the Jazz defend the pick n roll is the most important concept in
capping this game. They play to stop penetration. They defend the ball aka the
point guard. The big slides over and extends over whichever way the pg goes,
with the Pg (Harris /Watson) trailing the Pg as well. Some teams try a quick
show with the big and then have the big go back to the big. What this does is
limit the ability of opposing teams pgs to score off of it and it opens up opportunities
for opposing teams power forwards and centers to knock down wide open mid range
jumpers. Teams that have good shooting stretch 4’s with a good PG could really
hurt the jazz. This is one reason the blazers game was so close. Aldridge and
kurt Thomas had a ton of midrange jumpers and Aldridge could have had even more
but he missed 4 or 5 open jumpers in the 4th quarter. The Clippers don’t
have any bigs whose shot I worry about. Griffin can knock down open jumpers but
he has been very inconsistent with it. If he knocks down 7 or 8 midrange
jumpers in this game the clippers could win but I’ll take my chances with that.
Jordan has no role offensively and cant
shoot so his defender can sag off of him big time to clog the lane and help
out. Because of this I wouldn’t be surprised if Jordan had some alley oop dunks
in this game but for the most part this is a very negative thing for the
clippers against the jazz. Milsap’s post defense is elite. He is quick, he is
strong, has good hands, doesn’t fall for double moves very often and he plays
smart-he tries not to foul even if at times he has to give up a close range
shot or layup. He knows if he is beat not to make it worse with a bad foul. He also
has been very good in weak side shot blocking/protecting the rim. He is capable
of guarding and boxing out blake griffin 1 on 1 without any help. If for some
reason he does have foul problems the jazz have 4 big time bigs that can guard
blake decently in my opinion. On offense as I mentioned the jazz force-feed the
bigs. Jefferson can shoot the jumper so if he is out Jordan has to come out and
defend him which opens up cutters and things close to the basket and takes away
the main shot blocking threat for the
clippers. He is also very quick, and very crafty. He knows how to get other
bigs to commit fouls. Against a shot blocker like Jordan this is crucial. Jordan
will have to be very disciplined and patient guarding big al. milsap can score
on blake anytime he wants in my opinion. Midrange j, fall away, step back, etc.
milsap is also good at drawing fouls. Hawyard struggled with his shot in the 1st
half last game but really got it going in the clutch against Portland and I expect
the confidence to carry over. Because of Howard and Miles ability/will to get
to the rim (actually the entire jazz team makes a committed effort to drive to
the rim) I could see the clippers bigs getting into foul trouble. Utah sometimes
literally throws their bodies into defending players to draw fouls. Also, off
the bench the clippers have nobody capable of sticking with cj miles. Gomes is
to slow, foye is too small, thompkins is a rookie. Cj miles can get to the rim
and score ANYTIME he wants against this clipper team in my opinion. Favors and
Kanter against reggie evans and Solomon jones or brian cook is laughable. Especially
when you factor in that earl Watson is playing terrific ball and is an excellent
passer. He will deliver the ball to whoever has a mismatch on offense. Burks
can space the floor and is very quick. Wouldn’t be surprised if he made quite a
few nice plays off the bench as well. Mo
Williams scares me but I think the jazz can really key on him because of the
lack of talent on the rest of the clippers bench. What I think will happen: Utah will consistently get good shots.
Clippers will consistently settle for jumpers. They probably make some 3’s and
tough jumpers but will miss more than they make. I think the shot selection and
defense of the jazz will help win this game for Utah. The clippers are very
good when cp3 is a scorer but for him to be a scorer in this game he will have
to REALLY play well and earn it because of how Utah defends the pick n roll. I
see the 4 jazz bigs as a unit completely dominating the clippers 4 bigs. I see
griffin or Jordan or both getting in foul trouble. Jazz ML +125