With the 2-3-2 format, it's very difficult to win 3 straight home games. If Dallas wins twice at home, they'll have to win twice in Miami. Dallas is a very good road team, but don't forget how good of a home team Miami is. Miami is 8-0 at home this postseason. I think it'll be unfortunate for Dirk that Wade and company has stood is his way twice.
Series play: Miami -180
First thoughts on todays games
Boston on back to back, Atlanta tends to bounce back after a home loss.
Oklahoma over the weekend just downed Boston and Milwaukee on the road, nice accomplishments. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Maybe they put this on cruise and settle for a 6 point win.
San Antonio -3.5
San Antonio is playing fantasic right now. Not only are they winning but they're playing great down the stretch, executing, and putting teams away. Orlando is winning but their success is coming more at their lack of competition. They're not shooting the 3 ball well (except for last game) and that is crucial to their success. This is San Antonio's 3rd game in 4 nights, so that worries me a bit.
What is this we cover only on the road Utah Jazz? Not sure I'm willing to only get 10.5 with this awful Kings team.
Golden State +2.5
Would like to know if Chauncy is in or out. If he's out I'll take the small number. I've seen them playing w/o Chauny and its pretty nasty. Golden State just got embarrassed by the World Champs, I expect them to at least put up their fists in this fight, cause last night they got knocked out quickly like Marvis Frazier did against Iron Mike.
New Orleans -5
New Orleans barely squeaked out the win yesterday in Sacramento scoring a season low 75 points. New Orleans shot a horrible 32% from the field. Are they this good where they can play their worse and still find a way to win? Last 6 visits to LAC, NO has won and covered all. Is it really going to be this easy? In the last 3 seasons this is what has happened when New Orleans came to visit the Clippers.
11/24/2007 New Orleans won 98-89 (NO -3, 185.5)
1/2/2008 New Orleans won 95-81 (NO -5.5 183.5)
11/24/2008 New Orleans won 99-87 (NO -6.5 186.5)
4/1/2009 New Orleans won 104-98 (NO -4, 195.5)
11/9/2009 New Orleans won 112-84 (NO -2, 193)
3/15/2009 New Orleans won 108-100 (NO +2.5, 204.5) No Paul
Leaning on Boston +6.5, Chicago -6.5, Lakers -3
Miami just doesn't have it together. We all know Miami can dominate, but its a 48 minute game. Miami is 1-3 against playoff teams. I'll take the steady horse on 3 days rest. Going back to last season those old Boston legs are 11-3 on 3 or more days rest. Those 3 losses: Philly, with an 11 game winning streak Boston held an 11 point halftime lead. Only to lose the game on a tip by Elton Brand with less than 8 seconds left. 2nd loss Orlando, they went into Orlando again at half they lead by 11. Boston took the loss as Orlando outscored them by 13 in the final quarter and the game winning basket coming off a Rashard Lewis basket with less than 2 seconds left. 3rd loss, coming in New Orleans. Boston again has a dd lead at half, up 12. But got outplayed in the 2nd half and took the 8 point loss. I really don't believe Miami wins by dd tonight. I do expect this game to be decided by a 4 point Boston win or a less that 10 point Miami win. If my conclusion is accurate, I have a 72% chance of winning.
At first glance here's what I'm looking at. My opinion will probably change after some digging. But here's what draws my attention right now. Boston +4, NJ +3, Minnesota +1, Chicago +4.5, GS +1
Looking ahead here, every season I have games that are circled that I will automatically bet on. Tomorrow is one of them.
Wednesday Lakers visit Indiana on a back to back game. This will be there 5th game on their 8 game trip. It will also be there 5th game on the road in 7 days. Lakers are only 3-6 at Conseco Fieldhouse. Historically this is the toughest place for the Lakers to win or should I say against all teams, Lakers have the lowest winning percentage in Indiana.
Now I know many of you will say, well in the past those were different teams so it doesn't apply. That is true, but when the Lakers play in places such as Indiana, Utah, Portland, they just struggle there. Regardless of personnel. What you can see from the last several years is for the most part, the Lakers have had the better team yet still manage to struggle in Indiana.
I tried digging out the actual winning percentage of the Lakers in Indiana but failed to find it. If my memory serves me correct the Lakers franchise winning percentage is under .200 at Indiana the lowest against any team.
So whatever the line is tomorrow, Lakers -8 or -7 or whatever, I will be taking the points along with the moneyline.
08-09, Indiana finishes the season 36-46, Lakers finish 65-17 and beats the Lakers in Indiana 118-117
07-08, Indiana finishes the season 36-46, Lakers finish 57-25 and loses to the Lakers in Indiana 134-114
06-07, Indiana finishes the season 35-47, Lakers finish 42-40 and beats the Lakers in Indiana 95-84
05-06, Indiana finishes the season 41-41, Lakers finish 45-37 and beats the Lakers 105-79
04-05, Indiana finishes the season 44-38, Lakers finish 34-48 and beats the Lakers 103-97
03-04, Indiana finishes the season 61-21, Lakers finish 56-26 and beats the Lakers 85-72