• Rashad Evans (+210) vs. Chuck Liddell (-280)

Coming off a solid victory against Wanderlei Silva, I expect Chuck to ride that momentum coming into this fight. Rashad is a middle of the road light heavyweight, and that will show against Chuck. Stylistically, this is a nightmarish matchup for Rashad. Liddell is a guy who can stuff his takedowns, and can get right back up with ease if he somehow does get taken down. Since Evans will not be able to take Chuck down this will basically be a stand-up battle, one that Rashad doesn't have any kind of advantage in. Chuck's got the reach, the power and the accuracy that will make this an extremely difficult matchup for Evans. The only question mark is what kind of shape Chuck will show up in after the layoff due to a hamstring injury. I'm sure Liddell will show up in great shape (as usual) and easily win a unanimous decision against Rashad.

• Rich Franklin (-240) vs. Matt Hamill (+190)

Now this is a much more interesting matchup. The question will be: Can Hamill consistently take down Rich Franklin for 3 rounds straight and pound on him? How will Rich handle moving up a weight class? Yes, Rich has fought at 205 before (against Ken Shamrock of all people), but that was a long time ago against a terrible opponent. I wouldn't touch this fight, because it's really a tossup for me. I guess if you're really desperate for some action, i'd throw a couple bucks on Hamill and see what happens. But for me it's a NO-PLAY.

• Karo Parisyan (-280) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+210)

Really? Parisyan is this much of a favorite over Yoshida? Maybe I'm missing something here. Yes, Parisyan has fought tougher competition, but he's also coming off a couple of terrible performances. Don't be fooled by that "W" listed next to his fights against Burkman and Chonan, those were both terrible fights. Then he got destroyed by contender Thiago Alves. Another terrible, boring decision win for Parisyan wouldn't catch me off guard, but I like Yoshida here, and it's my underdog pick for the card.

• Dan Henderson (-200) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+160)

Too tough to call. Henderson's a better wrestler and striker, but Rousimar's jiu-jitsu is out of this world. Not sure how much Henderson has left in the tank after 2 consecutive title losses. This is a no-play for me, for sure. Just going to watch and enjoy.

• Martin Kampmann (Even) vs. Nate Marquardt (-140)

Martin Kampmann is a very good technical kickboxer with a decent ground game, but I don't think that will matter against Marquardt, who is better on the ground and won't be KO'd by Martin. Marquardt is coming off a tough decision "loss" (which he should've won but got screwed over thanks to Herb Dean). Nate will take his frustrations out on Martin and take a unanimous decision victory.

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares (waiting for line)

This fight should be awesome and it's a shame it's a prelim. As good as Pellegrino can be at times, I really like Thiago in this spot. Yes, he's coming off a KO loss so his confidence might be a bit lower than usual, but Pellegrino is coming off a submission loss to Nate Diaz. I like Thiago here because I think he's a bit more well rounded and I don't think Kurt has the power to hurt him standing. I wouldn't be surprised it Kurt pulls this one off, but my money is on Thiago.

• Tim Boetsch vs. James Lee

I've seen both of these guys fight, but still can't get a good reading of how good either of them actually are. Flipping a coin is about as good as you're gonna get from me about this fight.

• Matt Brown vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Again, haven't seen much of Brown or Dong (hehe), but I'm thinking Dong wins by sub if he gets it to the ground, Matt wins if he manages to stay on the feet. Another no play for me.

• Roan Carneiro vs. Ryo Chonan

Roan just got subbed by a fuckin blue belt in JiuJitsu. I like Chonan in this fight, although I really couldn't care less and won't bet on it.

• Jason Day vs. Jason Lambert

The battle of Jasons will come down to the fact that Lambert will be fighting his ass off to stay in the UFC, and Day got destroyed by Michael Bisping. If the line comes out around -130 for Lambert, I'll be putting money on him.

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Pick and Plays (Stars represent how much I like the pick)

Nate Marquardt *****
Chuck Lidell *****
Thiago Tavares ***½
Jason Lambert ***½
Yoshiyuki Yoshida ***½


No-Play Picks

Ryo Chonan

Flip a coin

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
Matt Brown vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Rich Franklin (-240) vs. Matt Hamill (+190)
Tim Boetsch vs. James Lee

GL Everyone, I'll post my FINAL plays at the end of August when more of the lines are out.

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