Posted Thursday, October 28, 2010 08:59 PMNFL Season to Date, all Methods --- 22-16-4 ATS, Won 18.8 units (best bets 0-1)
Dogs ML --- 1-3, Lost 1.65 units
Double Plays 1-0
Overvalued/Undervalued Teams ...................................................
Season to Date --- 15-10-3 ATS, Won 19.5 units
Dogs ML --- 1-2, lost .65 units
Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units
The Bounce Factor .............................................................................
Season to Date --- 3-0-1 ATS, Won 15 units
Chargers -3 (-130) over Titans --- 6.5 units to win 5 units
Our 2cd double play of the season.............. 1-0 thus far winning with Zona over the Saints
More picks to follow.................
I'm very confident we have a strong week this week, BOL ............
Hey guys what's happening ???
Hopefully we'll get a good, exciting game today.
Taking a look at some interesting things about both teams.........
Field goal percentage, the number one stat in the NBA....
Lakers outshoot opponents by 3.7%
Cavs outshoot opponents by 4.6%
Rebounding, the 2cd most important stat in the NBA ...........
Lakers out-rebound opponents by 1.4 per game
Cavs out-rebound opp by 2.5 per game
Lakers hold the advantage winning the free throw battle and the turn-over battle.
There's one area the Cavs hold a huge edge over the Lakers and in my view could decide the out-right winner of the game.
However it likely the least predictable stat aND the hardest for teams to be consistent from game to game.
And that's 3 pt shooting !!!!
Lakers outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 3%
Cavs outshoot opp in 3 pt'ers by 10.1%
Wow, that's a huge number and "IF" the Cavs can outshoot the Lakers by anything near this level they'll likely walk-off the SU winner.
But 3 pt'ers can be a inconsistent shot game to game and that's exactly what happened to the Cavs in last season playoffs when Mo Williams couldn't buy a 3 pt shot.
Same thing happened to Ray Allen 2 season ago when the Celtics went to two 7 game series in the opening 2 rounds, but when Allen found his shot it was lights-out and several 3 pt shooting records later in the NBA finals. Yea, it can be an inconsistenet shot.
The big difference between last season's Cavs and the Celtics of 2 season's ago was, the Celtics were lucky to survived when their 3 pt'ers went in the tank but the Cavs could not.
Mo Williams is shooting a blistering 43.6% from 3 pt land.
Kobe's shooting a career best 48.8% from the field but a 3rd worst of his 13 year career from 3 pt land, a very poor 27.8%.
Lebron's also shooting a career best from the field, 50%, and career best from 3 pt land as well, 36.6%.
Kobe takes one 3 pt shot for every 6.7 shots from the field
Lebron takes one 3 pt shot for every 4.5 shots from the field.
Lebron attempts more 3 pt shots relative to overall shots than Kobe and shots a better percentage from the field while attempting more 3's than Kobe.
Yea, "IF" the Cavs make their 3's they will win the game.
2008 Season --- 11-3 ATS
65% games --- 8-3 ATS
85% games --- 3-0 ATS
2009 Season to Date --- 5-2 ATS, Won 10.8 units
65% games --- 5-2 ATS
85% games --- 0-0 ATS
Hey guys, what's happening ???
The Bounce Factor faces a huge test this week and next, it's now calling-out the strongest, most dominate teams this season and saying it's their time to fall.
The 3 teams come into this weekend a combined 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS, Wow !!!
Don't be surprised when one or more of these teams picks-up their 1st loss of the season.
Some of the biggest upsets in NFL history have occured in this exact same spot.
The picks for week 7............
Rams +14 (-120) over Colts --- 4.8 units to win 4 units
Dolphins +7 (-120) over Saints --- 4.8 units to win 4 units
The 3rd team is Denver, with a bye this week, we'll fade them next week at Baltimore, as well as ride the Titans with our first 85% game of the season.
We'll find-out what The Bounce Factor's made of in the next 2 weeks.
As always guys, GL this weekend !!
Here's something a mad-scientist like theclaw dug-up, I like this kind of info as it helps one reach many different conclusions about the game.
Let's see what we can uncover here............
Let's rank the QB's in the 43 years of the SB era who've produced the longest spans between 1st SB win and last SB appearance.
1. Kurt Warner, 1st SB win in 99 season, last SB appearance 2008 season - SPAN OF 10 SEASONS - (3 total SB appearances, 1-2 record in SB game)
2. Joe Montana, 1st SB win in 1981 season, last SB appearance in 1989 season - SPAN OF 9 SEASONS - (4 SB appearances, 4-0)
3. Roger Stuabach, 1st SB win 1971, last SB appearance 1978 - SPAN OF 8 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 2-2).
4. Tom Brady, 1st SB win in 2001 , last SB 2007 - SPAN OF 7 SEASONS - (4 SB's, 3-1).
5. Terry Bradshaw, 1st SB win 1974, last SB 1979 - SPAN OF 6 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 4-0)
6. Troy Aikman, 1st SB win 1992, lst SB 1995 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (3 SB's, 3-0)
7. Jim Pluket, 1st SB win 1980, last SB 1983 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0)
8. Big Ben, 1st SB win 2005, last SB 2008 - SPAN 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0).
There should be a asterk next to Warners name, he's the only QB that didn't do it with the same team, the only QB to produce a losing record in the SB and of the top 5 QB's he's got the fewest SB appearances.
What jumps-off-the-page is that just 5 QB's in 43 years and only 4 with the same team, excluding Warner, could win a SB and then get back 5 years or longer to another SB, wow, only 4 QB's with the same team.
This seems to indicate just how short-lived a QB and his team can remain on top.
If Brady gets the Patroits to the SB this season he'll tie Montana with a 9 year span for the most of any QB with the same team and give him 5 SB appearances, the most of any QB.
And he could surpass that with a SB next season or the year after.
Could he do it ? Well of coarse it's possible but the info seems to indicate he's close to the end of the road.
The Patroits pass defense is the problem, last season Pats had a 89.8 defensive passer rating (DPR), 23rd in the league.
In the 5 seasons the Patroits made the AFC Championship game they had a average DPR of 68.9, in the 4 seasons they failed to make the AFC Championship game they had a 85.5 DPR.
Last season the Patroits pass defense was one of just 8 teams to give-up more than 12 yards per completion, and they were the "luckiest" defense in the league, with over 8% of catchable balls being dropped by opposing players, the highest percentage of drops in the league. Will they be that lucky again ??
One of the conclusions I've reached having researched the game is that for-the-most-part it's the players that win, more so than the coaches.
Once a team loses it's key players or they become older, they lose the leaders in the clubhouse, the players who knew how to win and could consistently make the "big plays" under pressure in the key moments of the game, once these players can no longer perform at a high level the teams run to SB 's is over.
This is exactly what we're now seeing with the Patroits defense.
You can replace these key players with another player, maybe even a better player, but it does not mean the results will be the same, it doesn't mean the better player will be able to perform better under pressure in the key moments of the game or be a better leader in the clubhouse.
The Patroits have been very fortunate over the years as the new players brought in have worked out well, hence all the talk about how you can plug any player into Bill's defense and it'll be a strong defense, history tells me different, history tells me the Pats have been fortunate and this is why the Pats have produced the 4th longest SPAN OF SEASONS at 7.
The Patroits signed 34 year old journeyman cornerback S. Springs, with his 1 int in 7 starts last season, SB defenses aren't built around cornerbacks like this.
This is a stop-gag measure at best and a sign the Patroits are deserate for defensive backs.
The key players from the defense are all disappearing, Ty Law, Harrison, Bruschi, and now Seymour.
And remember, it was the Patroits defense that let the team down in the SB against the Giants, with just 1 stop and they go into immortallity, they could not deliver.
Once their key players were gone or could no longer play at a high level every great coach look mere mortal.
Hello guys, I for one am glad to see football back !!!
Over the years I've done quite-a-bit of research into Super Bowl Champions, I look into damn near every stat and angle imaginable, I've got so much info on past SB champs it'd make your head spin.
The one indicator that consistently comes out on top at judging SB WINNERS in terms of "TEAM STRENGTH" and postseason domination and a teams ability to repeat or preform well the year after their SB win is "TOTAL YARDS DIFFERENTIAL"
How much a SB WINNER can outgain it's opponents in the regular season goes a long way to telling you how strong the team is.
Pittsburgh became the 31st team to win the SB since 1978, the year league went to the 16 game schedule and changed the rules to open-up the passing game and try to improve scoring.
Pittsburgh became just the 13th SB WINNER to out-gain it's opponents by over 70 yards per game in the regular season. (74.8 yds)
Let's take a look at the previous 12 SB WINNERS who produced a 70 yds or better differential.
8 of the 12 (66.7%) were a part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
6 of the 12 (50%) were a part of back-to-back repeat SB WINNERS.
Pretty impressive numbers !!!
Of the remaining 18 SB WINNERS just 5 teams (27.8%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
Chances are that if a team is going to go to back-to back SB's and win 1 or both it'll be a team that out-gained it's opponents by 70 yards or more, the strongest teams.
Let's take a look at the weakest SB WINNERS, in terms of total yards differential, it only stands to reason that if the best teams in total yards differential perform the best then the worst teams should perform the worst, right ???
There are 8 SB WINNERS who've out-gained their opponents by 40 yards or less.
1 of 8 (12.5%) were part of back-to-back SB Teams that won at least one of those SB's.
2 of 8 (25%) made the playoffs the following season
3 of 8 (37.5%) finished with a winning record the following season
In other words, the "STRONG TEAMS" could get to back-to-back SB's far and away more often then the "WEAK TEAMS" could even make the playoffs or finish with a winning record.
Pittsburgh out-gained it's opponents by 74.8 yards per game in 2009, this info seems to indicate Pittsburgh has incredible value to play futures bets on them to win the AFC and SB.
Hope you enjoyed the info and find it useful this season, good luck !!
Next I'll take a look at SB LOSERS and will have some interesting things on the Patroits.