The Bills opened as 1 point dogs at home to the Jaguars. This week the line has jumped 2.5 points towards Buffalo. Sharp money, probably. Why is that?
Jacksonville played the Colts tough last week and ended up winning outright 31-28 as a 7-point home dog. The theory here is that the Jags will be emotionally spent the week after a big divisional home game (win or loss) and now have to go on the road. Here’s a historical analysis of this situation in the del Rio era:
’09 – wk 5 beat TEN 37-17 then lost @ SEA 41-0
‘09 – wk 15 lost to IND 35-31 then lost @ NE 35-7
‘08 – wk 16 lost to IND 31-24 then lost @ BAL 27-7
‘06 – wk 14 beat IND 44-17 then lost @ TEN 24-17
‘05 – wk 17 beat TEN 40-13 then lost @ NE 28-3 (wild card)
‘04 – wk 4 lost to IND 24-17 then lost @ SD 34-21
This is a good sample and pretty clear indication that Jax tends to not show up OTR the week following a big divisional home game. Now Buffalo has its own problems, especially stopping the run. But what is working against the Jags is working for the Bills in this spot. Look for Bills fans at the Ralph to toast the victorious home team at the end of this game. I locked in Buffalo PK on Friday and recommend taking them up to -2.5.
Good luck Sunday.
Been a while since I've posted plays. My MLB bankroll is running a little over 1 unit for the year, better than a deficit I suppose. My normal day is 0 to 4 wagers but for some reason there's a lot of juicy stuff out there today. GL today everyone.
SAT ML
Gigantes -160
Chisox +135
Dodgers +115
SAT TOTALS
M's/Halos U7.5 (-105)
Rangers/Twins U8.5
Bucs/Braves U9
Nats/Pads U7 (-115)
Firstly, if you’re fundamentally opposed to chase systems, then this isn’t for you. Please move along and good luck this playoff season.
This system has produced a profit every year the past six years. Even last year only going 4-2. In the past six playoff seasons, when a series has been tied 2-2, the game 5 winner has gone 29-4 winning the series. The four losers:
· 2004 Flames, lost games 6 & 7 in the Stanley Cup final to the Bolts (Sutter choke job)
· 2006 Flames, lost games 6 & 7 in round 1 to the Ducks (Sutter choke job, part II)
· 2009 Devils, lost games 6 & 7 in round 1 to the Hurricanes (Marty gave up the tying and winning goals in the last 2 minutes of game 7)
· 2009 Wings, lost games 6 & 7 in the Stanley Cup Final to the Pens (still can’t figure that one out)
I figure this record is so unbalanced because game 5 is THE most important game in a series. The team down 3-2 has zero margin for error in game 6, comes out tight and gets away from the strategy that got them there in the first place. Plus, the game 5 winner is usually the series favorite, which cannot be discounted.
OK, so this is pretty simple. In game 6, bet the game 5 winner on the money line. If they lose, chase the same team in game 7 – another ML bet for one unit plus enough to win back your game 6 losing bet.
So, who are the candidates so far in 2010? Sharks, Canucks and Red Wings with the Chicago/Nashville game 5 winner to come.
Saturday Pick
San Jose -180, 1.8 units to win 1 unit.
GL all.
Little value in any of series prices. Maybe Bucks or Thunder as lottery tickets only. Better off betting each game. West is wide open this year so there should be lots of value on the doggies in round one. I have 4 units on the Cavs 3-2 to win the whole thing.
All plays = 1 unit each
- BOS -4
- MIL +8.5
- UTA +200
- OKC +280
- SAS +170
- POR +300
Looking to play the game 2 bounce on Western Conference game 1 losers, one unit once the spreads come out.
GL all.
Last Week 4-1, +3.02 units
This Week 0-2, -2.00 units
NFL Season 32-23-1; +8.44 units
No writeups...
Sunday Sides
TB -3.5 one unit
Sunday RR Parlay - 1 unit/7 plays
WAS +3.5
MIA/STL O44
GB -3