Posted Friday, April 15, 2011 07:20 PMYes, todays news from the poker world is bad. No, it is worse than bad.
How bad? Bad enough to potentially bring down the 3 top poker sites - Pokerstars and Full Tilt together swamp the online sports betting world in terms of volume. So one can only assume that this is very bad for the extremely limited sports betting that is left out there for Americans.
The cliff notes are that Pokerstars, Ulitmate Bet, and Full Tilt were using undercover ways to fund and pay accounts in America. They bought off bank presidents, bought banks outright, and used CC and WU methods that the DOJ deems illegal according to the UIGEA of 2006. Indictments were handed out today, and no official word has come from the sites - but there is much speculation from very reliable sources that they will most likely shut down completely. At best, they will remain open for non-Americans, but Americans poker playing days online are all but done.
I wonder what Negranu, Hellmuth, Ivey - and those other posers will do now - will they just make a cash grab and disappear or will they fight with the money they made on the backs of the players to get something done. I wonder what this will do to the poker movement - it could go one way or the other - but what are the odds on a bunch of degenerates getting organized and getting something done? Maybe the PPA will do something - I hope so.
Sounds similar to sports betting? How do you think the few sportsbooks left out there will feel when they contemplate this knowing they do the same exact things to keep Americans?
The end is near my dear friends. Sure there will always be places that will take wagers with extreme risks and non-transparancy to the bettor, but the days of trust are gone. Any book can close at any time, your money could be gone at any book at any time.
This is a big deal. Some might say that online gambling for Americans couldnt get worse, but today it got enormously worse. I have my own opinions about why this is happening - and those have to do with paving the way for inevitable legalization and taxation and knocking these guys out for financial gain - but that is just opinion and doesnt really matter. The reality is that I wouldnt have a penny offshore now at any book that accepts Americans. If you have money at Pinnacle or Betfair - you are probably fine - but unless you are willing to lose your money at any time, just sit out for a while. Pokerstars and Fulltilt are in a different stratisphere compared to bookmaker and greek - if they can go (at least for Americans) then certainly anything can happen to those remaining.
Keep your eyes and ears open - things are happening quickly - stay on top of the news and stay on top of your balances.
Today, we went from being very cold to entering the ice age of online gambling. The good news is, the ice always seems to melt eventually.
Im not a financial expert, but I try and follow this stuff to the point that I can talk intelligently about it.
I dont understand how the stock market goes up, while jobs go down and more importantly housing has the land mine of strategic mortgage defaults on the horizon exploding.
This is a good article about it.
Estimates are that between 20% and 33% of homes are underwater. I believe that the shame and guilt of the homeowners are what is keeping them paying their mortgage - but I do also believe that that is wearing away - and more and more will just make a financial decision to walk away from their homes - effectively ruining the housing market which in turn will sour the economy.
These are not people who cant afford to pay their mortgage - these are people who simply CHOOSE not to pay their mortgage based on a smart business decision - sell their good credit for what could be hundreds of thousands of dollars.
I have a buddy who bought a condo 3 years ago for 200K, and it is now worth 35K. I went through the process with him over the last year - at first he was sure he would pay, then he started wondering more about it, and just last week he decided to walk.
Does anyone have thoughts about this? I cant see how the economy can possibly recover with this looming on the horizon like a fart in a spacesuit.
This is some basic raw data on the Big10's out of conference games and results. Do with it what you wish - I have some definite opinions about this and how to apply it, but until discussion comes out I just wanted to post the data:
Big 10 out of conference schedule, against FBS teams:
Big10 overall record: 21-12
Home: 16-6
Road: 5-6
VS:
MAC: 12-2
Pac 10: 1-3
Big East: 2-2
Ind: 2-2
WAC: 2-1
Big12: 1-1
ACC: 0-1
MWC: 1-0
VS Non-MAC Teams: 9-10
VS BCS conferences: 4-7
VS current top 25 teams: 1-3 (only played a total of 4 games against ranked out of conference teams)
VS current top 50 teams: 3-8
VS bowl bound teams: 6-7
Average computer ranking of 21 wins: 84 (out of 120)
Average computer ranking of 12 losses: 43 (out of 120)
10 of 21 wins came against teams ranked 100-120
So there is a new bill up for approval sponsored by Barney Frank and Jim McDermott. It is advertised as the reversal of the UIGEA that passed in the dead of night a couple of years ago and removed neteller from our lives and made it harder to move money.
Here are the specifics:
1. It is currently LEGAL at the federal level to bet on sports. This legislation does NOTHING to address the legality of wagering for the bet placer. It is still ILLEGAL to accept wagers. This wont change.
2. The new legislation excludes any business that handles sports betting. So this does nothing to open up sportsbooks moving money easier.
3. The new legislation will license gambling establishments. These will include establishments that offer online BJ, craps, and poker etc. - NOT SPORTSBETTING.
4. Any company that gets this license will pay a 2% tax on all deposits.
5. Any company that gets a license will be required to provide to the IRS a summary of all wins and losses by player.
6. There is language about protecting the addicted gambler, children etc - useless.
7. The UIGEA is delayed from being enforced on Dec 1 09 to Dec 1 10 (this is useless because it is essentially unenforceable more than what they do now).
So in a nutshell - the govt has realized that they are missing out on a big revenue stream - both from taxing the gaming business but also the player. This is a plan to get both. This is not a plan to overturn the UIGEA.
This is also not a plan to accept sporst betting as a form of government sponsored gambling. The govt thinks poker and table games are fine, but not sports betting. I guess the poker lobby is much stronger than the anti sports gambling lobby (the NFL, NBA etc).
So thats really it. In the end, even if this passes, I am not convinced a company like pokerstars would even participate. Yes, it would be much easier for them to receive deposits - but it would cost them 2% on all deposits, the cost of the license itself, and a presumed loss of customers who will be very pissed that the govt will be getting a log of their wins and losses. I guess this will come down to a business decision for companies like PS.
The big winner here is land based US casinos like Harrahs who are struggling now, but are foaming at the mouth to be a govt sponsored online gambling company - which they will be with very little effort.
For the player, if you play a lot of poker, and dont mind the govt knowing your wins and losses - there will be very easy ways to deposit and receive money from a harrahs or similar. Im sure they will accept CC's, and online banking transactions - and in that respect this will help a lot of people win at a online poker table and collect their money 5 minutes later.
Unfortunately, it will do nothing for the guy who wants to bet on a football game in 5 minutes but has not money offshore.
As the MLB season is upon us, it might be time to think about your strategy for betting bases. There are 2 main schools of thought for handicapping, handicapping a winner - or handicapping a line.
From my perspective, the vast majority of MLB bettors handicap a winner. They come up with reasons to bet a team and while the line comes in to their thought process, they are looking for a winner. This leads to betting lots of favorites, and often paying too high of a price for teams. Chasing is not only for bet amounts - a lot of people chase a line too - thinking "if its a winner at -150 it is a winner at -160 so Im still betting it". In my opinion, this is a recipe for longterm MLB disaster.
The second way to bet baseball is to handicap a line, and bet on the side that gives you the most value in relation to your line. When you come up with a line, you are not coming up with the line you think will be closest to the betting line - you are coming up with a line that you think is an accurate reflection of results. If those 2 teams played 100 times, the line you handicap would break a bettor even if they took one side all of those times.
Using this method, you could end up on either side of any game on any day based upon what the line is, regardless of whether you think they will win that day or not. In MLB you are often betting on teams you think have a better chance of losing that day than winning, but the line is the great equalizer. Lots of guys go sub .500 in MLB and win lots of money.
Baseball, more than any other sport, is a longterm venture. So overpaying even 3 or 4 cents will kill you longterm - its just like paying a tax. Do yourself a favor and get numerous outs - and always always always bet the best line you can - and make sure you have reduced juice books in that mix. Dont make the mistake of saying "5 cents is no big deal" - it is a big deal - every penny is a big deal on lines.
The average bettor would be better off line shopping and betting the best available line than increasing his win percentage by 3%. For some reason, people like to put all of their time in to handicapping and then pay too much for the team they bet.
Remember - the number one determinant of longterm sportsbetting success is how often you beat the closing line and by how much.
So the next time you read someones writeup and it is loaded with comments about how they think a pitcher will come to play, or how a team is motivated, or anything of the sort - remember one thing - all of that doesnt matter if you are paying too much for that team - and if that line is 10 cents too much you should be playing the other side.
In my opinion, the only way to make money at MLB longterm is to handicap the line by predicting results, and betting whichever side is value in relation to that number. This takes a totally unemotional approach, as you cant "fall in love" with any team on any day, but instead you will be falling in love with your bankroll as you profit on the marathon that is MLB.
GL all