So, this is a continuation of my first blog and as titled teams to fade. N. Illinois is a team that should have at least won the game and was suppose to be pretty good defensively. Wyoming ran all over them and N. Illinois is currently playing the toughest part of their schedule right off the bat. They must again go on the road and play a very very good defensive team in USF not to also mention a more experienced team. The following week they get their first home game of the year and I also realize that N. Illinois is 32-2 SU at home over the last six seasons I reflect back to game one on the year and say Wyoming ran all over their defense. San Diego st has a very great running back named Donnel Pumphrey who can run for days. They then will have a couple of cupcakes before playing two tough opponents in back to back weeks with at Western Mich and home against Central Mich. Buffalo is a homecoming game and then a bye week. Bowling Green could hang some point son them so if you're looking at around a TD or DD you might want to take the points. Toledo is after that and they could be a home dog for that game and could be the last good spot to take them because the last two games could have very inflated lines. Eastern Mich will have at least a halfway decent offense and if the defense has injuries or has not figured it out a four TD spread would look pretty good. Kent st has one of the best defenses in the country and with a struggling defense on the N. Illinois side of the ball Kent has a chance at keeping that inside the number.
Ohio is the next team on this list and in my opinion the most disappointing team so far. Going into this game Ohio was an offensive team and defensive team that were suppose to be ranked in the top 50 for both. Texas st was a team only with 74 scholarships and returning a team that was going to rank in the bottom 5 in all defensive categories and in the bottom 20 offensively. Ohio lost their star back the first drive of the game I'm unsure as to weather or not he returned but I very much doubt it. They are on the road next week against Kansas and Kansas has not started a season 2-0 since 2011 when they hosted and beat N. Illinois. They follow that game up with a road game against Tenn, home against Gardner Webb hopefully they should have something together by then. At Miami, Oh who can run the ball this year probably would see DD lay here and a win by a TD. The next 5 weeks become the toughest part of their schedule. Home against Bowling Green, E. Michigan, @ Kent st (the dog in this match up is 7-3 ATS), @ Toledo (home team 3-0 ATS), home vs Buffalo, bye week, @ C Mich, & home for Akron. To me looking at this schedule I don't see Ohio winning more than 4 of these games if that.
Bowling Green is the next team and although they played Ohio st they never really got the offense going, the defense gave up a ton of yards, & they look pretty bad on the line on both sides of the ball. North Dakota will not be an easy task next week and then you go against a team that has nothing but ALL OFFENSE in M. Tenn st. The next three games to follow give them a chance to find their groove and hopefully get it together. If they don't they're in trouble because they start the toughest part of their schedule. @ Toledo who pretty much own Bowling Green (5-10 ATS L15), home vs Miami OH, @ N. Illinois a game in which the fav is 4-1 ATS L5, @ Akron who Bowling Green owns but, if they haven't got their garbage together who knows, and home to Kent st who they have a losing record ATS against and a team who's defense is good enough to keep them in the game also of note I traditionally go to the 2nd to last or last game of the year in Bowling Green and have yet to see them win and this is the game I have tickets to this season so expect to see Kent st come out on top haha. Last game is against Buffalo at home and it may be a possible bowl bid on the line for either one. The last team is TCU who everyone was picking this season to be somewhat of a sleeper pick and how this team was going to have one of the best defenses. Well the Jackrabbits had there way with that defense like you would if you were paying for sex. Yes it was that bad and if they can do that to their defense and we are talking about the Big 12, think of what the rest of the conference is going to do. Arkansas is on deck next week but, after that it's home vs Iowa st who can run and the SU winner is 4-0 ATS, a rivalry game @ SMU who they have a losing ATS record against (4-7 L11), home to Oklahoma who surely has a better defense, @ Kansas and a bye hopefully they have their garbage together at this point. However if they don't here come some very powerful offenses fortunately they do get most of the tough games at home. @WVU a game in which the SU winner is 4-0 ATS, home to Texas Tech who they are 1-3 ATS against, @ Baylor who has a very good offense every year for the last 5 or 6 years, a bye week and come off that against Oklahoma st who they are 1-3 SU + ATS the last 4, @ Texas on a short week Texas will be coming off a warm up game against Kansas and this will be the home finale for Texas, and then they finish up home against Kansas st which I'm a huge fan of Bill Snyder and think he is one of the most underrated coaches. You better believe that team will play to the whistle and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Kstate is playing for a bowl bid on this game. My question mark team is the one I would like to get feedback on (as well as the other stuff) is South Alabama. South Alabama is in the heart of the toughest part of their schedule. They just upset Miss st and are going to be rewarded with a home game against the nations leading rushing offense. Georgia Southern had 5 running backs average 4.9 yards per carry or better last year and they ALL RETURN!!! This will be a much better test as to how good their defense is. I don't think all of that game against Miss st was a testament as too how good their defense is as to how inefficient the Miss st offense was. If they should get past Georgia Southern its at UL Lafayette, home vs Nicholls a team Georgia LMFAO plays next week, home vs San Diego st and you have to wonder what this line is going to look like and how or what game Vegas will gauge this off. Will they go the last two or how well they played against Georgia Southern? It's a bye week, and then @ Arkansas st this will be another test of where they stand in the conference. After this gauntlet of a schedule is over its cupcake city with the except of LSU's warm up game to Texas A&M so good value in what that line will probably look like because LSU this late in the season is not going to want to hurt starters. This could be a very good back door cover. They could be favorites and have great value at playing ATS in 5 of the last 6 games of the season or, was this first game a fluke and Georgia Southern blows them out and they just barely win or lose games the rest of the year and finish about 500 for the year?
Hello Again Sports fans!!! I'm posting this blog by request from a few friends. A lot of you know me as Wiseguy43 and I've spent the last 25 years capping games and trying to figure out a way to profit consistently. I have finally found this in college football baseball?? We'll see if things go the way they do next year. If you are in any of my baseball pools you will know what I'm talking about if you look at one particular pool. The money that I've profit on that screen is very close to what has been in my account since week 2 of baseball. I started in that pool week one otherwise they would be exact. Ok anyway I have a PR system that Has now profit me better than 5k in each of the last 3 seasons. What I would like to do is open this to any discussions to whatever you would like to talk about. So, far this season week one went as expected 7-12 but, that's pretty close to 2 of the last 3 years anyhow. I'm going to tell who my biggest movers were, teams on the rise, teams to fade, and my question mark team. First my biggest line movers of the week. Ohio-5/, Alabama+5/, Texas st+3/, & USC-3/. Teams that are on the rise, Houston, Tulsa, Wyoming, S. Miss, & LaTech. The first of these Houston who we all thought could very well be this good based on what we seen of them last year IS this good.Do Not be afraid to take this team laying the big number for the next 4 or 5 games. This actually will probably be the best time to bet them all season ( It will probably take that long before Vegas gets to it) Houston has a very favorable schedule and if they run the table this could be the year that we have that Big discussion on extending the playoffs let more teams in which if they do run it and don't get in would be a fraud to me. So looking how this seta up next week is basically a warm up game against Lamar, then at Cinncy which Cinncy did not have a very good week one and I would think the line on that will be much smaller than the final outcome. At Texas st will probably be a blowout of epic proportions and you could honestly see that line as high as 56/ and they'll still cover. Now you look at finally playing there second home game of the season and first against a FBS opponent. This would be against UConn and this team can't move the ball very well and certainly will not do it against this defense. Oct. 8th is the week when we will find out just how crazy of a line we may be looking at and might be the game to stay away from. That games is against Navy and if they were to cover that game the following weekend would certainly see a very inflated line. Tulsa has a pretty good offense and is very capable of staying inside the number. Tulsa destroyed a San Jose st team on both sides of the ball in a game in which many thought would be close. I will say you could see the same line this coming weekend that Bowling Green got. Tulsa has a much better defense than Bowling Green so they could be a solid pick. The next three weeks will see North Carolina A&T , at Fresno, & a bye week. After their bye week they are home against SMU which will be a pretty good game should they win you very well will see a great game with a one loss Tulsa and an undefeated Houston team and OHHH how Tulsa would love to put a stamp on that game!! After that game is very much clear sailing for Tulsa home against Tulane, at Memphis, home East Carolina, at Navy will be tough, ar UCF, and home versus Cinncy which this could be a very tough game and may be the toughest one after Houston. Wyoming looked very impressive in week one and I think will be a great team to take probably every week for the rest of the year. They will be a huge dog next week and could honestly win outright ya see Wyoming has identified its offense and starters where as Nebraska still has not really established an identity on offense. After that it's home UC Davis, at Eastern Mich where you could see a line probably around a TD, at Colorado st who has no offense and struggles against the run on defense. Air Force they own ATS having covered 12 of the last 15. You then have a bye week and come off at Nevada who you are 2-0 ATS to home against Boise st who statistically they don't do well against but covered the number last year. Home against Utah st they never fair well but, then again this might be a different season. Next is at UNLV in which they are 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings, and the last two would be the ones that depending on the line might be where you just watch. Southern Miss could end up being in the same conversation as Houston weeks from now. This team is very good on both sides of the ball and honestly only really have one team in its way to go undefeated. Oct 15 at LSU could be a very big game for S. Miss and you kinda get that feeling about this team when Farve quarter backed the team to a win in Alabama. Marshall could be the other game and you would love to say ultimate let down spot because they would be the next game. However, Southern Miss will be coming off a bye week and Marshall will not be so the LSU win will be somewhat forgot and turned more into an emotional motivation and focus as opposed to an ecstasy of having just beat LSU. After Marshall its blowouts all the way. The last team in my opinion and they were my long shot beat this year to win the national championship is Louisville. They get both Florida st and Clemson early in the year when maybe they have it figured out and maybe they as in (fla st & Clemson) don't. Let's also not forget that if I'm right and they win one or both of those games and Houston is undefeated you could have a one loss or undefeated Louisville team versus an undefeated Houston team.
A few games that I like for this evening. I do believe that Michigan st is going to get caught looking ahead in this game and I'm not one who uses that phrase a lot because I personally hate that saying. Truth of the matter is Michigan St is not going to risk having any injuries to key players so, expect them to lead the whole game, control tempo, & clock and milk out a two TD victory. I think Kent st pulls off the outright upset Illinois may be the worse team in the Big Ten this season. I think Boise St is giving too many points and Washington in my opinion is a much tougher opponent then Vegas is giving them credit for. My last pick for Friday night is the under for Baylor/SMU at 73/. I can see Baylor covering, & I can see SMU scoring 13 or less so, I feel more confident with the under because I can't see Baylor scoring more than 56 before calling off the dogs and in all honesty it may actually take Baylor a few possessions before they get going.